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  • New Research: Australia’s Skills System Continues to Crumble After COVID

    New Research: Australia’s Skills System Continues to Crumble After COVID

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    Australia’s vocational education and training (VET) system shows growing signs of erosion, fragmentation and dysfunction, according to new research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    The research reveals a grim picture of a VET system starved of consistent funding or focus, fragmenting into scattered offerings of non-accredited and ‘micro-credential’ courses, mostly provided by private for-profit training companies. Furthermore, several high-profile government announcements during the pandemic designed to address skilled labour shortages have not altered the VET system’s worrying trajectory.

    Key findings:

    • The report recommends a stronger focus on a more pro-active, hands-on approach to workforce training and planning.
    • A new approach to training would support training in comprehensive, quality, accredited qualifications, rather than short-term fragments of training, with revitalised TAFE institutes leading the nation’s skills reconstruction process.
    • The report proposes that a minimum 70% of public VET funding be reallocated through the TAFE system.
    • New supports announced during COVID boosted government VET funding by $1.6 billion in 2019-20 from its five-year low. However deep and long-standing problems with Australia’s VET system have not been resolved – and in some cases, worsened.
    • All VET enrolment growth between 2015-20 has been in non-accredited training, growing by almost 70,000 enrolments, while properly regulated, accredited program enrolments have plunged by over 500,000.
    • Apprenticeship numbers showed a partial rebound in 2020-21 after eight years of marked decline – but Australia still has 173,000 fewer apprentices and trainees in training than it had in 2012, one-third below 2012 levels.
    • Empirical evidence shows rising apprenticeships ‘on the books’ are not being matched by any rise in completions. The number of apprenticeship and traineeship completions collapsed to a new low in the year ending June 2021, with just 77,000 completions – down almost two-thirds from 2013.
    • Government wage subsidies are creating strong incentives for employers to recycle heavily subsidised short-term apprentices. No requirements on employers to ensure apprentices finish programs, offer jobs after completion, and lower 5-10% subsidy rates under the government’s companion program Completing Apprenticeships combine to reinforce apprentice ‘churn’.
    • Three key feminised sectors facing huge shortages of qualified labour (nursing, education, and welfare programs) have all seen continued decline in numbers of apprentices.
    • Three in five (60%) new apprentices in-training over the year to June 2021 were men.
    • In 2021, the proportion of government-subsidised students studying with TAFE fell to less than half of all government-funded VET students (49%) – an historic low. 33% were attending for-profit private providers.
    • TAFE staffing and funding have also eroded further, as federal VET subsidies are diverted in favour of private for-profit providers. Failed market-based policies and TAFE defunding has seen over 8,800 full-time equivalent TAFE positions cut since 2012 across five states and territories.
    • Without renewed investment in TAFE programs, the significant annual economic benefits generated by the stock of TAFE-trained skilled workers in the labour force estimated at $92.5 billion per year will decay

    “Continued decline in enrolments and eight years of declining apprenticeship completions make it very clear: Australia’s domestic skills pipeline is in disarray,” said Alison Pennington, senior economist at the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    “Deep failures in VET policy reflect broader failures of Australian economic policy to encourage far-sighted investments of any kind in the economy: physical capital, innovation, or skills.

    “Government COVID-era skills policies throw money at employers taking on apprentices and trainees, but have failed to fix the training system. There is no evidence the skills pipeline has been either protected or replenished under current VET policies.

    “Feminised industries with the most pressing labour shortages continue to see weak participation in accredited programs, traineeships, and apprenticeships. 3 in 5 of the additional apprentices and trainees in training over the year to June 2021 were men.

    “Once again, women’s jobs and demands have been deprioritised in favour of the optics of high-vis photo-ops.

    “Australia must commit to rebuilding the TAFE system’s leading role in reliable vocational education – the national skills policy infrastructure that can restore Australia’s long-term investment vision in its people, skills, and innovative sustainable industries.”


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  • Australia ready to become sustainable EV-making powerhouse: new research

    Australia ready to become sustainable EV-making powerhouse: new research

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    A unique combination of advantages has handed Australia a historic chance to become a sustainable global manufacturer of electric vehicles – provided the federal government acts swiftly and decisively, according to new research by the Australia Institute’s Carmichael Centre.

    The new report, Rebuilding Vehicle Manufacturing in Australia: Industrial Opportunities in an Electrified Future, has found Australia is uniquely blessed with advantages to attract and retain EV manufacturing and rebuild the nation’s car-making capacity. This potential, however, will not be met without major government action.

    “When it comes to creating an EV manufacturing sector, Australia enjoys advantages other nations would die for: rich reserves of lithium and rare earths, strong industrial infrastructure, a highly skilled workforce, powerful training capacity, abundant renewable energy options, and untapped consumer potential,” said Dr Mark Dean, the report’s lead author.

    “And contrary to popular belief, we wouldn’t be starting from scratch. Thanks to the resilience of our remaining automotive manufacturing supply chain, a surprising amount of auto manufacturing work – including components, specialty vehicles, and engineering – still exists here.”

    But Dr Dean said his research found Australia’s advantages would count for little without significant government support. The report makes a number of recommendations including:

    • Establishing an EV Manufacturing Industry Commission
    • Using tax incentives to encourage firms involved in the extraction of key minerals – primarily lithium and rare earths – with local manufacturing capabilities, especially emerging Australian EV battery industries
    • Introducing a long-term strategy for vocational training, ensuring the establishment of skills to service major EV manufacturers looking to set up operations Australia
    • Offering major global manufacturers incentives (tax incentives, access to infrastructure, potential public capital participation, etc) to global manufacturers to set up – especially in Australian regions undergoing transition from carbon-intensive industries
    • Introducing local procurement laws for the rapid electrification of government vehicle fleets

    “No nation builds a major industry without its government taking a proactive role. Our new research shows there’s no excuse for inaction, because there are a huge range of powerful levers our government could be pulling,” Dr Dean said.

    “If we capture the moment we’ll capture abundant benefits: creating tens of thousands of regional manufacturing jobs, reducing our dependence on raw resource extraction, reinforcing our accelerating transition toward non-polluting energy sources, and spurring innovation, research, and engineering activity in Australia. We just need our government to act.”


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  • As collective bargaining erodes in Australia, solutions from other countries could strengthen bargaining and lift wages

    As collective bargaining erodes in Australia, solutions from other countries could strengthen bargaining and lift wages 

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    New research on international collective bargaining systems, released today in a special issue of the peer-reviewed journal, Labour and Industry, finds that Australia’s industrial relations system is rapidly losing its ability to support wages in the face of numerous challenges (now including the Omicron outbreak).

    On the heels of new data showing further erosion of Australia’s collective bargaining system, researchers and practitioners from five countries have identified best practices from other countries that could strengthen collective bargaining and lift wages.

    Key findings of the research include: 

    • The Ardern government in New Zealand has implemented a new sector-wide bargaining system (called ‘Fair Pay Agreements’) that could be a model for similar changes in Australia. It would enhance workers’ ability to win more stable jobs and higher wages in highly fragmented industries (like security, cleaning or childcare).
    • New Zealand-style reforms could also improve the effectiveness of Australia’s pay equity legislation. Recent changes in New Zealand’s pay equity system prove that wider scope for bargaining can address persistent gendered pay discrimination. One recent enterprise agreement in Australia (covering public sector workers in Victoria) has already applies that model here.
    • Nordic and continental European countries have used coordinated sectoral bargaining systems to enhance vocational training and technology adoption. Australia could learn from that experience to better integrate skills programs with secure job pathways.
    • In Germany, a combination of sector-wide bargaining over wages and other core compensation, combined with workplace-level consultations (under that country’s ‘works council’ system), produces employment outcomes that are both flexible and fair.

    “The erosion of collective bargaining has been a major factor in Australia’s record-weak wage growth over the past decade,” said Alison Pennington, Senior Economist at the Centre for Future Work and co-editor (with Dr. Jim Stanford) of the special issue. 

    “This research confirms that other countries are implementing innovative and powerful measures to strengthen collective bargaining and support a healthier post-COVID recovery. Australia should learn from those countries and take urgent measures to stop the decline of collective bargaining here.”

    “A wealth of experience from other countries proves collective bargaining can be strengthened and modernised, to provide workers with a decent shot at fair compensation and better jobs. Unfortunately, Australian governments seem more obsessed with vilifying and policing unions, instead of engaging them as full and constructive partners. The resulting erosion of collective bargaining will only lead to even weaker wages in the future,” said Pennington.

    New data released this week from the Commonwealth government confirm that collective bargaining coverage has declined further during the pandemic, with 600,000 workers losing enterprise agreement coverage since end-2019. That erosion of collective bargaining has been a key reason for Australia’s record-weak wage growth.

    The newly released special issue of Labour and Industry contains 13 contributions from academics, union leaders, and practitioners around the world.

    “Australian workers need an effective system of collective bargaining that goes beyond the legal entity that directly employs them,” said Tim Kennedy, Secretary of the United Workers Union, and co-author one of the articles in the special issue. “This is a vital mechanism to ensure workers have greater control over the safety of their work, across sectors, industries, franchises, labour hire arrangements, supply chains – or however work is configured.”

    “Australia is currently deprived of the skill formation benefits that arise from strong sectoral collective bargaining between social partners in Nordic nations,” said Andrew Scott, Professor of Politics and Policy at Deakin University, and author of another article in the special issue.  

    “It’s exacerbating deficiencies in our training arrangements, evident in high rates of misalignment between jobs and skills. Australia can learn much from the Nordic countries’ superior economic and social policy outcomes that arise from well-integrated skills and collective bargaining systems,” said Professor Scott.

    The research is the culmination of a two-year project coordinated by the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute.


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  • Victorian Rate Cap Policy Costs Economy Over 7,000 jobs and $890 million to GDP

    Victorian Rate Cap Policy Costs Economy Over 7,000 jobs and $890 million to GDP

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    The Victorian State Government’s policy to cap the rates of local government has cost the Victorian economy 7,425 direct and indirect jobs in 2021-22, and has reduced GDP by up to $890 million in 2021-22, according to new research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    Key Findings

    • The Victorian Government’s rate caps have reduced employment in Victoria (counting both direct local government jobs, and indirect private sector positions) by up to 7425 jobs in 2021-22. They have also reduced GDP by up to $890 million in 2021-22. The costs of suppressed local government revenues, and corresponding austerity in the delivery of local government services, will continue to grow with each passing year if the policy is maintained.
    • Rates on property are the largest single source of revenue to local governments in Victoria. Of total Victorian local government revenue in 2019-20 ($11.7 billion), rates accounted for $5.6 billion or almost half. Since 2016-17, the Victorian state government has capped the amounts local governments can collect from their ratepayers.
    • The rate cap policy, imposed by the Victorian state government on local governments, interferes with the mission of service delivery and expanded, secure employment.
    • The local government sector in Victoria employs about 50,000 people in a wide range of services and occupations, including road planning and maintenance, home and aged care, waste disposal, libraries, childcare, school crossing supervision, maternal and child health, the State Emergency Service, and environmental management.
    • The rate cap policy becomes more restrictive as the overall economy slows rather than less restrictive, since the rate cap is tied to inflation indexes which tend to slow when the economy is weak.
    • The rate caps act as a brake on recovery and growth by embedding a dynamic of self-fulfilling fiscal restraint and austerity.
    • Victoria’s rate cap policy has inhibited a normal trend of expanding and improving local government services in line with population growth, rising living standards, and economic expansion.

    “Rate caps are an arbitrary policy which ties growth in overall rates revenue to price indexes which have nothing to do with demand for services or democratic accountability,” said Dan Nahum, economist at the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    “It’s not even the case that ratepayers necessarily save any money as a result of the rate cap. There has been a shift to other forms of revenue-raising that are less progressive and socially equitable.

    “Rates bills are calculated based on relative property valuations – so even if local governments are collecting less from rates overall than they would in the absence of the cap, if your property value has gone up relative to others in your community, then your rates payments do as well.

    “There is no evidence that rate caps makes local councils ‘more efficient’. Instead, it simply takes money out of much-needed council services and robs local communities of employment opportunities.

    “Far from protecting ratepayers and residents, rate caps hurt them. Rate caps compromise service delivery, negatively impact employment and wages amongst residents employed in the local government sector, result in higher fees collected through other revenue tools, and reduce local government expenditures flowing back into the private sector.

    “There is simply no good economic reason for rate caps. By abolishing the rate caps policy, the Victorian Government could create jobs and stimulate the economy post-COVID.”


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  • Eight free weeks: Time stolen from employees skyrockets during COVID

    Eight free weeks: Time stolen from employees skyrockets during COVID

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    The number of hours stolen from Australians by employers has skyrocketed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the average employee now providing eight full-time weeks of free work per year.

    17 November 2021 marks Go Home on Time Day, run by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work, and now in its thirteenth year.

    Key findings from this year’s Go Home on Time Day report:

    • The average employed Australian is performing 6.13 hours of unpaid work each week in 2021, up from 5.25 in 2020, and 4.62 in 2019.
    • That time theft equates to 319 hours per year, or over eight standard 38-hour work weeks per worker.
    • This unpaid overtime represents the loss of $125 billion in income from Australian workers in the past year, or $461.60 per worker every fortnight.
    • COVID-19 appears to have accelerated Australia’s time theft crisis, with 26% of workers reporting their employers’ expectations of their availability increased during the pandemic.
    • Amidst the growth in working from home during COVID, employers are using new technologies to pressure and monitor employees. 39% of workers report their employers are remotely monitoring them through technology like webcams and keystroke counters.
    • Young workers aged 18-29 performed the most unpaid overtime (8.17 hours per week)

    “This year Australian workers are taking home a smaller share of GDP than we have ever seen before. Yet, time-theft is rife and bosses are stealing record amounts of unpaid time from workers,” said Dan Nahum, economist at the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.
     
    “Arriving at work early, staying late, working through breaks, working nights and weekends, taking calls or emails out of hours – there are a host of ways employers steal time from their employees, and we see them all being used prodigiously.

    “COVID-19 has made the situation worse, indicating work-from-home does not necessarily improve work life in favour of employees. Instead we’re seeing further incursion of work into people’s personal time and their privacy. In many cases it’s making it easier for employers to undercut Australian minimum standards around hours, overtime, and penalty rates.

    “Alarmingly work-from-home arrangements have been accompanied by innovative surveillance methods, with 39 per cent of employees saying their employers remotely monitor their activity and a further 17 per cent unsure whether they were being electronically monitored or not. When one in three workers say they are being monitored via webcam and 30 per cent say their every keystroke is being recorded, it’s clear our industrial laws are not keeping pace with tech.

    “If Australians want to stop this alarming theft of billions of hours of time, and hundreds of billions of dollars of income, policymakers need to strengthen workers’ power to demand reasonable, stable hours of limit, and fair payment for every hour they work. This is all the more important with so many Australians working from their own homes.”

    Mr Nahum said it was an injustice that many Australians report being eager for more paid hours while contributing free ones to their boss.

    “Half the part-time and casual workers in this country report they are keen for more paid hours, yet the average part-timer is giving away over 4.5 hours a week and the average casual just over 5 hours,” Mr Nahum said.

    “These are worker efforts that should end up as wages in someone’s pocket, not a boost to a profit column.”


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  • Active Policy Measures Needed to Stop Decline of Journalism

    Active Policy Measures Needed to Stop Decline of Journalism

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    The media and information industries have lost some 60,000 jobs in Australia over the last 15 years. With almost half of those jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic, new research shows active policy supports are urgently needed to stabilise and protect the ‘public good’ function of journalism.

    A new report by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work, The Future of Work in Journalism, catalogues the employment and economic damage wrought in media and information industries by the combination of technological change, new business models, and globalisation. The report was commissioned by the Media Entertainment & Arts Alliance (MEAA), who are urging the Federal Government to step up its support for Australian domestic journalism.

    Key findings:

    • The broader information, media, and telecommunications industry lost over 30,000 jobs between 2007 (its peak employment) and 2019.
    • Publishing was the worst-affected sub-sector, losing over half of its jobs as newspapers and other print media grappled with new technologies and major losses. Almost 30,000 more jobs have also been lost in this sector since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • New jobs in digital activities (such as internet publishing) are not offsetting the loss of work in conventional media.
    • Jobs remaining in the media industry have become more insecure: with almost one-third of positions part-time, and a growing share of casual and contractor positions.
    • Real wages are falling in the media industry, despite a dramatic increase in labour productivity.
    • Real value-added per employee in media industries has been growing at 4% per year since 2012, but real labour compensation has been falling.

    “It is ironic that we supposedly live in an ‘information economy’ yet Australia’s capacity to contribute fully and successfully to that information era is crumbling due to financial losses and massive job destruction,” said Dr Jim Stanford, director of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    “Workers in industries like journalism are producing more than ever despite the turmoil of technological change, job losses and restructuring. But the extraordinary effort by workers is not translating into more secure or better paid jobs—quite the contrary.

    “Quality journalism is a public good, with the distribution of reliable information to citizens the key to a well-functioning modern democracy—particularly in times of crisis, like the pandemic. The failure of private markets to sustainably supply this service necessitates public policy action to stabilise the industry and support continued quality journalism,” Dr Stanford said.

    Marcus Strom, the Media Entertainment & Arts Alliance’s (MEAA) Media Federal President, urged the Commonwealth Government to step-up its support for domestic journalism.

    “The report makes clear that years’ of disruption, undermining and neglect have left Australian journalism and journalists in a fragile state,” said Marcus Strom, Media Federal President at the MEAA.

    “Public interest journalism is a public good. It informs and entertains Australians, ensures the public’s right to know, and holds the powerful to account. If Australians want that to continue, then there is no time to waste to address the many challenges facing journalism,” Mr Strom said.


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  • Insecure Workers Have Been the ‘Shock Troops’ of the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Report

    Insecure Workers Have Been the ‘Shock Troops’ of the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Report

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    New research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work confirms that workers in casual and insecure jobs have borne the lion’s share of job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic – both the first lockdowns in 2020, and the more recent Delta-wave of closures.

    Key Findings:

    • Since May, workers in casual and part-time jobs have suffered over 70% of job losses from renewed lockdowns and workplace closures.
    • Casual workers have been 8 times more likely to lose work than permanent staff. Meanwhile, part-time workers have been 4.5 times more likely to lose work than full-timers.
    • The report documents the disproportionate concentration of insecure work among women, young workers, and in the retail and hospitality sectors. Women hold over 53% of all casual jobs, but only 48% of permanent roles.
    • Average wages are much lower in insecure jobs. Casual workers, on average, earn 26% less per hour and 52% less per week than permanent workers – contrary to the common assumption that casual workers receive higher wages to offset their lack of entitlements and job protections.
    • The research estimates that if casual workers received the same hourly wages as permanent staff, overall wage incomes in Australia would grow by $30 billion per year, or 3.5%. That would mark a welcome change from the past eight consecutive years of record-low wage growth.
    • The report also shows that less than half of working Australians now hold a permanent, full-time waged job with entitlements. The traditional norm of a ‘standard’ job has been eroded on all sides by part-time jobs, casual work, temporary and contractor jobs, precarious forms of self-employment, and (more recently) on-demand gig work.

    “Workers in insecure jobs have been the shock troops of the pandemic,” said Dr Jim Stanford, director of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work, and report author.

    “They suffered by far the deepest casualties during the first round of layoffs. Then they were sent back into battle, as the economy temporarily recovered. But now their livelihoods are being shot down again, in mass numbers.

    “It is bad enough that workers in these jobs do not receive basic entitlements like paid sick leave or severance protections. But even when they are working, they are paid far less than other workers.

    “The long-term and multi-faceted expansion of insecure work, in all its forms, is ripping apart economic and social stability in Australia.”

    “Recent changes in labour law, which confirm the right of employers to use casual labour in any position — even stable long-term roles — will lead to further expansion of insecure work once the pandemic is over. New pathways for workers to convert to permanent status have numerous limitations and exemptions, and will not significantly affect growing job insecurity.”


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  • When the Show Cannot Go On: Rebooting Australia’s Arts & Entertainment Sector After COVID-19

    When the Show Cannot Go On: Rebooting Australia’s Arts & Entertainment Sector After COVID-19

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    New research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work, written by Senior Economist Alison Pennington and Monash University’s Ben Eltham, reveals the ongoing, devastating impact of COVID-19 on Australia’s arts and entertainment sector and provides a series of recommendations to government that would reboot the creative sector following the crisis.

    Key Findings:

    • The arts and entertainment sector is a significant employer in Australia that makes a substantial contribution to the economy.
    • More people work in broad cultural industries (over 350,000) than many other areas of the economy that are receiving greater policy supports, including aviation (40,500) and coal mining (48,900).
    • Despite years of significant funding pressures and policy neglect, the arts and entertainment sector contributed $17 billion in GDP to the Australian economy in 2018-19.
    • However, due to their disproportionately insecure and precarious labour market conditions, arts and entertainment sector workers are experiencing significant ruptures in their employment arrangements due to COVID-19 and the federal government has not adequately responded to the scale and severity of the crisis.
    • Looking ahead, adequate support to rebuild the sector should include: expanding funding to community arts organisations and artists; introducing a new Commonwealth creative fellowships program; creating a whole-of-Australia public streaming platform; introducing an Australian content quota on all services, including international streaming platforms; introducing a digital platforms levy to fund a merged-content production fund; better coordinating cultural policy between federal, state and local government levels, especially during the COVID-19 recovery; and strengthening pay and conditions for arts and entertainment sector workers.

    Quotes attributable to Ben Eltham, School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash University: 

    “COVID-19 has badly damaged Australia’s arts and cultural sector. Rolling lockdowns and health restrictions have devastated the live entertainment sector. Around the world, millions of artists and cultural workers have been thrown out of work by the pandemic,” Eltham said.

    “Tens of thousands of artists now face lockdowns across major cities without adequate protections for their jobs, incomes and productions.

    “The Morrison government’s policy response to the crisis has been late and inadequate. The Morrison government’s attacks on universities, the ABC and local production quotas are all bad news for the future of Australian culture.

    “The pandemic has changed the way we think about creativity and culture. Australians have turned to the arts in their time of need, embracing cultural pastimes during extended lockdowns. We have rediscovered the value of culture, even as the pandemic has spread.

    “Old arguments about government spending have been turned on their head. For many artists, JobKeeper was the first time they had been able to draw a steady, liveable income from their craft. The massive cash injection shows that Australians can afford a better society and culture if we want.”

    Quotes attributable to Alison Pennington, Senior Economist, Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute: 

    “Destructive market-first policies eroded the richness and diversity of arts and culture in Australia long-before COVID-19 hit. Endless short-term grant cycles and philanthropic dependency is not a place the arts and culture sector should “snap back” to,” Pennington said.

    “Australia needs a total public-led reboot of the arts. This cultural reconstruction must ensure that the sector does not just survive the pandemic, but stands ready to flourish on the other side. It must lay the groundwork for a sustainable, vibrant future for the arts and culture, built through ambitious public investment and planning across many sectors of our cultural economy.

    “Australia’s arts and cultural sector needs an ambitious public investment program to provide reliable funding for arts organisations from the grassroots-up, provide arts education to all children, and rebuild cultural labour markets to ensure that artists and cultural workers earn decent, living incomes.”


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  • Budget Analysis 2021-22: Heroic Assumptions and Half Measures

    Budget Analysis 2021-22: Heroic Assumptions and Half Measures

    The Commonwealth government has tabled its budget for the 2021-22 financial year. The government is counting on a vigorous and sustained burst of consumer spending by Australian households to drive the post-COVID recovery. Yet the budget itself concedes that the main sources of income to finance expanded consumer spending (namely, wages and income supports) will remain weak or even contract. As shown in the Centre for Future Work’s analysis of the budget, these two dimensions of the budget are fundamentally incompatible.

    While an abrupt turn to austerity was avoided in this budget, overall program spending is nevertheless declining substantially: falling $60 billion this year (or around 3% of Australia’s GDP) as COVID support programs are eliminated. And the new investments announced in some programs neither offset the contractionary impact of overall spending cuts, nor come close to meeting the real need for expanded services in any of these areas.

    Our briefing paper on the 2021-22 Commonwealth Budget describes the contradictory macroeconomic logic of the budget, and the risks of an economic recovery that is overwhelmingly dependent on consumer spending – at a time when consumer incomes are constrained by stagnant wages and cutbacks in income programs. It also reviews specific spending announcements in several key areas of relevance to workers and labour markets: including aged care, gender inequality, superannuation, manufacturing, and higher education.

    This budget was an opportunity for the government to recognise that a sustained recovery needs a balanced and inclusive economic and fiscal approach. Full recovery can only be underpinned by a commitment to more secure jobs, higher wages, expanded public services, and a broad portfolio of high-value industries. Sadly, the budget fails to deliver on all these counts. The government has not truly accepted its responsibility to oversee a lasting and inclusive reconstruction after the terrible events of the last year.



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  • New Research: Commonwealth Can Afford $10b for Aged Care Recommendations

    New Research: Commonwealth Can Afford $10b for Aged Care Recommendations

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    Implementing the recommendations of the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety will require additional Commonwealth funding of at least $10 billion per year, and there are several revenue tools which the government could use to raise those funds, according to a new report on funding high-quality aged care released by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    Key Findings:

    • While the Royal Commission’s 148 recommendations were not explicitly costed, the Centre for Future Work report shows that $10 billion per year (approximately 0.5% of Australia’s GDP) would be the minimum required to move forward with the urgent reforms in regulation, employment practices, and quality benchmarks advised by the Commission.
    • Australia’s public spending on aged care is much lower than other industrial countries with better records of aged care service. It also notes that Australia’s overall tax collections are also much smaller (by about 5% of GDP) than the OECD average, and have declined relative to Australia’s GDP in recent years.
    • The report recommends that initial improvements in aged care funding should proceed immediately. With the Budget projected to incur major deficits for many years (due to the COVVID-19 pandemic and recession), it is neither necessary nor appropriate to fully ‘fund’ incremental aged care spending in the initial and most urgent years of reform.
    • However, as economic and fiscal conditions stabilise, additional revenue sources will be important in underpinning high-quality aged care. The report highlights five specific options for raising additional revenue – two of which were proposed by the respective Royal Commissioners:
      • A 1 percentage-point Medicare-style flat-rate levy (proposed by Royal Commissioner Briggs)
      • A set of modest adjustments to personal income tax rates, preserving the existing progressivity of the system (similar to the proposal of Commissioner Pagone)
      • Cancelling the legislated Stage Three income tax cuts scheduled to begin in 2024 (which deliver most savings to the highest-income households)
      • Reforms in the treatment of capital gains and dividend income in the personal income tax system
      • Reforms to company taxes to eliminate loopholes and raise additional revenues

    “Australia is one of the richest countries in the world. There should be no argument over whether we can afford to provide top-quality, respectful care to the elders who helped build our economy and our society,” said Dr Jim Stanford, Director of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work, and co-author of the report.

    “The government has access to a whole suite of revenue options to support the ambitious and quick implementation of the Royal Commission’s recommendations. That effort must start with the 2021-22 Commonwealth budget.

    “There is no immutable economic or fiscal constraint holding back the government from doing right by Australia’s elders. The only question is whether this government places enough priority on caring for seniors with the quality and dignity they deserve,” Dr Stanford said.

    ANMF members have been calling out the failures in aged care for many years and urging governments to make the changes needed to ensure dignified care for older Australians. Governments have ignored these calls for as many years. This cannot continue. The findings of the Royal Commission into Aged Care Safety and Quality have made this abundantly clear,” said Annie Butler, ANMF Federal Secretary.

    “This research demonstrates both the need for investment in the aged care sector and how it can be achieved leaving the Government with no legitimate excuses for continued inaction.

    “However, there must be appropriate “strings attached” to any increases in funding provided to aged care providers, providers must be made fully and transparently accountable for the use of taxpayers’ money and assure Australians that their money is going directly to quality care for their loved ones.

    “If Australia is to regard itself as a compassionate, decent society the Morrison Government must stop the suffering and neglect of older Australians by acting now,” Ms Butler said.

    “This report explains why aged care workers are left in tears after their shifts,” said Caroyln Smith, United Workers Union Aged Care Director.

    “The $10 billion annual funding shortfall is leading to horrendous human costs in aged care, with older Australians left unsafe and vulnerable, and workers left physically and emotionally exhausted.

    “This report once again underlines that the Federal Government needs to substantially and effectively address the human toll the aged care crisis is taking on older Australians, their families and aged care workers,” Ms Smith said.


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