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  • Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

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    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets.

    Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages and income distribution, skills and training, sector and industry policies, globalisation, the role of government, public services, and more.

    The Centre will now evolve to a stand-alone centre sitting outside of the Australia Institute.

    “The Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work have been such an important and powerful partnership in advocating for and winning ideas that make the world of work better. We look forward to what this next chapter can bring,” said Michele O’Neil, President of the Australian Council of Trade Unions.

    “We are thrilled to have been able to seed this important initiative and build it to where it is able to stand alone. The Australia Institute will continue to work with the Centre for Future Work to amplify good policy solutions for workplace issues,” said Leanne Minshull, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.


  • Australia dumps its care crisis on the Pacific – new report

    Australia dumps its care crisis on the Pacific – new report

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    Skilled health workers from Pacific Island countries are being poached to plug Australia’s shortage of care workers, leaving the health systems in their home countries on the brink of collapse, according to new research.

    A report by the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute and Public Services International has also found that when workers get to Australia, many are being deskilled, underpaid and exploited.

    Care workers have been added to the Pacific Australia Labor Mobility (PALM) scheme, traditionally aimed at seasonal agriculture workers like fruit pickers. This has led to skilled health workers – like nurses – quitting their jobs to take up better paid but lower skilled jobs in Australia.

    The report details the harrowing state of the health systems in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Many health services and hospitals have been decimated, operating at 30-40 percent capacity or below.

    The research reveals that not only are Pacific workers doing lower-skilled care jobs in Australia, they are vulnerable to poor treatment, due to their visa status.

    “Workers have the right to cross borders for a better life for themselves and their families,” said Fiona Macdonald, Director of the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute.

    “But the current system is broken. It is rich countries taking from poor countries and giving nothing back. Australia and New Zealand are offloading their own care crises to their Pacific neighbours.

    “Australia has vowed to invest in the health systems of its Pacific neighbours, not destroy them. It should be helping to build better, safer health facilities and train workers, not lure them away.

    “We are taking workers out of a system already at breaking point, giving them jobs which are below their skill level and failing to protect them from exploitation and mistreatment.

    “The recruiting and labour hire systems, including international schemes like PALM, need urgent reform. This should start with meaningful dialogue with the workers themselves.”


    Related research



    Addressing the health workforce crisis in the Pacific



    Full report

  • Go Home On Time Day 2025. As full timers disconnect, part timers are doing more unpaid overtime

    Go Home On Time Day 2025. As full timers disconnect, part timers are doing more unpaid overtime

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    New research by the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute has revealed a disturbing new twist when it comes to unpaid overtime in Australia.

    The research has been released today to mark Go Home On Time Day 2025, an initiative by the Centre for Future Work, now into its 17th year.

    It is the first full year since Right To Disconnect Laws were introduced in Australia, back in August 2024.

    As full time employees and their bosses come to grips with workers’ right to switch off, the burden is shifting to part time and casual employees.

    Overall, Australians are still doing more than three and a half hours of unpaid overtime each week – the equivalent to four and a half full-time weeks per year.

    The average workers is losing nearly  $8000 a year, which is ripping a staggering $95.8 billion a year out of the pockets of Australian workers.

    Key points:

    • Full-time employees average 3.8 hours of unpaid overtime a week. For every ten hours of paid work, they’re working one for nothing.
    • Despite doing significantly fewer hours overall, part-time employees do 3.7 hours of unpaid overtime a week. For every seven hours of paid work, they’re doing nearly an hour for nothing.
    • Younger people (18-24) do the most unpaid overtime at 4.7 hours a week, equivalent to almost one hour of unpaid work for every five paid hours.
    • Unpaid overtime equates to almost 173 hours per year, per worker, more than 4.5 full-time weeks.
    • If that unpaid overtime was valued at median wage rates, the average worker is losing $7,930 a year or $305 a fortnight.
      • Economy-wide, that equates to almost $95.8 billion of lost income a year, which is more than the government spends on the NDIS and Aged Care combined.

    “Australians have been giving their bosses so many free hours for so many years, we were never going to see the level of unpaid overtime suddenly plummet,” said Fiona Macdonald, Director of the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute.

    “The situation for full time workers has stabilised. It’s a good first step. I would say, for them, the right to disconnect is working.

    “But this is the first time we have seen rates of unpaid overtime for part time workers almost as high as full time workers.

    “The right to disconnect is less effective for part time workers and casuals because they are simply not given enough paid hours to do their jobs.

    “Young people who are already on the lowest incomes are bearing the brunt of this trend towards squeezing part timers.

    “However you look at it, Australian workers are being ripped off. The cost of living crisis isn’t over. Now, more than ever, workers should be paid for every single hour they work. ”


  • Australian Sovereignty and the Path to Peace – 2025 Laurie Carmichael Lecture

    International Relations

    Australian Sovereignty and the Path to Peace – 2025 Laurie Carmichael Lecture

    This year’s lecture was delivered by the Hon Doug Cameron, former NSW Senator, on September 10 in the Solidarity Hall at the Victorian Trades Hall Council.

    The Laurie Carmichael Lecture is an annual keynote lecture hosted by the Carmichael Centre, an initiative of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work, in partnership with RMIT University’s Business and Human Rights Centre (BHRIGHT). It is supported by the ACTU, the AMWU, the AEU, and The Australia Institute.



    2025 LAURIE CARMICHAEL LECTURE

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  • Feeling hopeless? You’re not alone. The untold story behind Australia’s plummeting standard of living

    Feeling hopeless? You’re not alone. The untold story behind Australia’s plummeting standard of living

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    A new report on Australia’s standard of living has found that low real wages, underfunded public services and skyrocketing prices have left many families experiencing hardship and hopelessness.

    But the report, Solving the Crisis – Raising Living Standards of Australian Workers, also concludes that there is hope, and suggests a range of reforms to improve our way of life.

    Compiled by the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute, the report found that official inflation data does not reflect the pressure families are experiencing as they struggle to afford essentials like food, housing and energy.

    It found the Reserve Bank of Australia’s response to high inflation – repeatedly lifting interest rates – was a case of victim-blaming and acted as a double punishment for working families.

    Among the recommendations in the Solving the Crisis report:

    • Treating housing as a human right
    • Embedding employment targets in the Charter of Budget Honesty
    • Restoring the minimum wage to a minimum of 60% of the median wage
    • Greater investment and fast-tracking of clean, affordable, renewable energy
    • Making fossil fuel mining companies pay their fair share of taxes and royalties
    • Raising all income support payments to the level of the age pension
    • Fixing the broken employment services system
    • Abolishing the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing
    • Better funding of Medicare, public hospitals, early childhood education and care, and public schools

    “Productivity might be the word on everyone’s lips in the lead up to the economic reform roundtable. But weak productivity isn’t the cause of many of the problems facing Australian families today,” said Lisa Heap, Senior Researcher, Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute.

    “The key to raising living standards is focusing on the experience of workers and their families with a multidimensional approach rather than a narrow concentration on productivity.”

    “There are better, fairer alternatives to managing economic challenges than simply tightening workers’ collective belts,” said Fiona Macdonald, Director, Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute.

    “By centring workers’ experiences and building a robust evidence base, we have mapped a path to a progressive economic agenda that lifts living standards, reduces inequality, and strengthens democracy.”

    “The inflation crisis was caused by unchecked corporate power and profit-seeking behaviour like price gouging – not the spending of ordinary Australians,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.


    Related research



    Solving the crisis: Raising the living standards of Australian workers



    Solving the Crisis: Raising the living standards of Australian workers

  • A smooth move or a tough transition? Protecting workers who’ll lose their jobs when the Eraring Power Station closes

    A smooth move or a tough transition? Protecting workers who’ll lose their jobs when the Eraring Power Station closes

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    The Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute has urged the federal government to take charge of transitioning hundreds of workers into secure employment when the Eraring Power Station shuts down.

    The power station is scheduled to close by August 2027. More than 1000 workers will be directly impacted by the closure.

    This is an important test in Australia’s transition from fossil fuel power to renewables.

    The Centre for Future Work has written a submission to the Net Zero Economy Agency (NZEA) urging it to apply its Energy Industry Jobs Plan to the Eraring closure, to avoid inflicting undue pain on workers currently employed at the power station.

    In the submission, it argues that this important process should not be left solely to the power station owner, Origin Energy, but managed under the Energy Industry Jobs Plan, which was set up for this precise purpose.

    “We hear a lot about how the transition to a clean energy future involves helping workers in the coal and gas industry secure jobs when theirs disappear,” said Charlie Joyce, Researcher, Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute.

    “To help this process, the government set up the Net Zero Economy Authority, which established an Energy Industry Jobs Plan, designed specifically to support workers who’ll lose their jobs when coal and gas power stations close down.

    “Well, now the nation’s biggest coal-fired power station is closing down. It’s time for this plan to deliver.

    “Origin has made some noise about helping workers with retraining and career counselling, but that’s not enough. This impacts far more than those employed directly by Origin Energy. It requires coordination with industry, unions, and the broader community.

    “The nation will be watching how the Eraring closure unfolds. This is an important test for transitioning workers into good, secure jobs.

    “It would be senseless for the Net Zero Economy Authority not to use its Energy Industry Jobs Plan in this situation.  This is what it was set up to do.”


  • The continuing irrelevance of minimum wages to future inflation

    The continuing irrelevance of minimum wages to future inflation

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    Minimum and award wages should grow by 5 to 9 per cent this year

    Updated analysis by the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute reveals that a fair and appropriate increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation.

    The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1990, and finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation.

    It also reveals that such an increase to award wages could be met with only a small reduction in profit margins.

    The report, authored by Greg Jericho, based on previous work by both he and Jim Stanford, finds that an increase to the National Minimum Wage and award wages of between 5.8% and 9.2% in the Fair Work Commissions’ Annual Wage Review, due in June, is required to restore the real buying power of low-paid workers to pre-pandemic trends.

    The report also finds that this would not significantly affect headline inflation.

    Key findings of the report include:

    • Last year’s decision, which lifted the minimum wage and award wages by 3.75 per cent, offset the inflation of the previous year but still left those on Modern Awards with real earnings below what they were in 2020.
    • By June this year, the real value of Modern Award wages will be almost 4 per cent below what they were in September 2020.
    • Despite increases in the minimum wage over the past 2 years above inflation, inflation fell by a combined 4.5 percentage points.
    • There has been no significant correlation between rises in the minimum wage and inflation since 1990.
    • Raising wages by 5.8 to 9.2 percent this year would offset recent inflation and restore real wages for award-covered workers to the pre-pandemic trend.
    • Even if fully passed on by employers, higher award wages would have no significant impact on economy-wide prices.
    • A 9.2 per cent increase in award wages could be fully offset, with no impact on prices at all, by a 1.8 per cent reduction in corporate profits – still leaving profits far above historical levels.

    “Australia’s lowest paid workers have been hardest hit by inflation over the past 3 years,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute’s Center for Future Work.

    “The price rises of necessities always hurt those on low incomes harder than those on average and high incomes.

    “This analysis shows there is no credible economic reason to deny them a decent pay raise above inflation.

    “It’s vital the Fair Work Commission ensure that the minimum wage not only keeps up with inflation but also returns the value to the real trend of before the pandemic.”


    Related research



    The Continuing Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation



    The Continuing Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation

  • Climate crisis escalates cost-of-living pressures

    Climate crisis escalates cost-of-living pressures

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    A new report has found direct connections between the climate crisis and rising cost-of-living pressures. Failure to lower emissions now will only aggravate the crisis, with each moment of inaction compounding the pressure on households.

    The report identifies three key areas where the climate crisis is directly driving up costs for Australians: insurance, food, and energy.

    These sectors combined have accounted for over a fifth of the consumer price inflation experienced in Australia since 2022.

    Key findings:

    • Insurance premiums have soared due to an increase in natural disasters, with some households now spending over seven weeks of gross income just to cover home insurance
    • Food prices have risen by 20% since 2020, with climate-related disruptions wiping out harvests and making it harder for some regions to grow food
    • Energy costs remain high due to a reliance on fossil fuels, underinvestment in renewables, and fossil fuel exports forcing Australians to compete with the global market for Australia’s resources
    • The impacts of the climate crisis are disproportionately affecting lower-income and regional households, who are already feeling the financial strain more severely

    The report underscores the need for urgent climate action to protect Australian households from these escalating costs. Addressing the root causes of climate change is essential to lowering future risks and alleviating the economic strain that millions of Australians are facing.

    “Insurance costs keep on rising and, while competition across big business sectors is needed, the thing that is driving insurance costs is climate change,” said Richard Dennis, Executive Director at The Australia Institute.

    “The only way to keep insurance costs down is to keep fossil fuel emissions down. The more we heat the climate, the more expensive storms, floods and fires will be and, in turn, the more insurance will cost. It’s time we started to tax the fossil fuel companies to fund the damage that their previous emissions are already causing.”

    As the world’s second-largest fossil fuel exporter and fifth largest producer, Australia’s actions are making a significant contribution to the problem.

    “The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters driven by climate change have resulted in higher payouts for insurance companies and rising premiums for homeowners,” said Mark Ogge,  Principal Advisor at The Australia Institute.

    “One in 20 Australian households now spend more than seven weeks’ worth of gross income just to pay for home insurance and in many regional areas, where household incomes are lower, the burden is even heavier.

    “As climate change continues to fuel more frequent disasters, entire suburbs or towns could become uninsurable.

    “Food prices have also surged and in some regions growing certain crops is becoming harder and harder, making food insecurity worse, and even without price-gouging by retailers like Coles and Woolworths, prices are expected to keep rising due to the ongoing climate crisis.”

    “Meanwhile, Australia’s energy sector keeps using expensive fossil fuels and there is serious underinvestment in renewable energy solutions which provide far cheaper electricity

    “Exposure to global prices for fossil fuels due to coal and gas exports has driven up local electricity costs and even if Australia moves away from international pricing, the continued risk of climate disasters damaging critical infrastructure will ensure that energy prices remain high for the foreseeable future.”


    Related documents



    Cost-of-living and the Climate Crisis

    Related research



    Climate crisis escalates cost-of-living pressures



    Full report

  • Former ACCC Chair Professor Allan Fels to Deliver Third Annual Laurie Carmichael Lecture

    Former ACCC Chair Professor Allan Fels to Deliver Third Annual Laurie Carmichael Lecture

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    The Carmichael Centre is proud to announce that the third annual Laurie Carmichael Lecture will be delivered on 5 September 2024 by Professor Allan Fels AO, former Chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and Chair of the recent Inquiry into Price Gouging and Unfair Business Practices.

    He will be joined in conversation by Sally McManus, Secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) to discuss the topic “Power, Profits and Price Gouging.”

    WHO:

    Professor Allan Fels AO – former Chair of the ACCC

    Sally MacManus – Secretary of the ACTU

    WHEN: Thursday, 5 September 2024

    Doors open – 5.30pm

    Event – 6.00pm to 7.15

    WHERE: RMIT Building 80, Level 2, Lecture Theatre 7, 445 Swanston Street Melbourne, VIC 3000

    The Laurie Carmichael Lecture is an annual keynote lecture co-sponsored by the Carmichael Centre (an initiative of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work) and RMIT University’s Business and Human Rights Centre (BHRIGHT).

    The lecture is named in honour of Laurie Carmichael, the legendary manufacturing trade union leader who passed away in 2018 at the age of 93. Previous Carmichael Lectures have included Nobel Prize economist Joseph E. Stiglitz and former ITUC General Secretary Sharan Burrow.

    “Prof. Fels is a distinguished economist, lawyer, and academic who has made an outstanding contribution to public policy in Australia,” said Jim Stanford, Director of the Centre for Future Work (home of the Carmichael Centre).

    “For years he has championed the cause of fair, competitive pricing—a concern which became more urgent in the wake of accelerating inflation (and profit mark-ups) after the COVID pandemic.

    “Professor Allan Fels has long recognised the dangers of corporate concentration and unfair pricing to the efficiency and equity of Australia’s economy.

    “His Carmichael Lecture is a timely opportunity to highlight his recommendations for preventing price-gouging and protecting workers’ living standards.”

    Attendance at the lecture is free, but advance registration is essential at:

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  • Off-Peak Hot Water: One Simple Change to Support Renewable Rollout

    Off-Peak Hot Water: One Simple Change to Support Renewable Rollout

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    Australia’s off-peak hot water systems should be reconfigured to consume electricity in the middle of the day, rather than at night, according to new research from the Australia Institute and Buildings Alive.

    This one simple change could redirect much of the clean, cheap renewable energy that is currently being wasted, or “curtailed”, by the National Energy Market during the day.

    Key Findings:

    • Annual forced curtailment for 2023-24 was around 4,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh).
    • This represents around 9.3% of Australia’s total generation from wind and utility solar.
    • Historically, Off-peak hot water systems have been set to operate at night, but they could be reconfigured to consume electricity during the middle of the day, when there is an abundant supply of renewable electricity.
    • Switching off-peak hot water to the middle of the day could provide around 4,000 GWh of flexible demand, almost the exact current level of renewable curtailment.
    • This could save up to $6 billion in household electricity and energy costs by 2040.

    “The fact that we in Australia choose to waste cheap and clean renewable energy on a regular basis is absurd,” said Dr Richard Denniss, Executive Director at the Australia Institute.

    “While the persistent claims of a looming energy crisis and gas shortage ring out across the country, we are turning our back on nearly 10% of the current renewable capacity in our grid.

    “The time for inflexible, expensive and polluting electricity from fossil fuels has come and gone. It is now up to the Federal Government to make the necessary changes that will allow Australians to properly access clean, cheap renewable energy.

    “If off-peak hours were moved away from the time of day dominated by coal-fired electricity and towards the time of day when the sun is shining brightest, households would save money and we would reduce emissions.”

    “This is the low hanging fruit of the energy transition,” said Dr Craig Roussac, Chief Executive Officer at Buildings Alive.

    “There are significant gains to be made from this one relatively simple and cost-effective intervention in our energy market.

    “While the problems faced by the electricity system of the 2020s are different to those faced in the 1950s, off-peak hot water systems could again play an important role in reducing costs for consumers and increasing efficiency.

    “There are so many untapped and cost-effective technologies that can shift electrical loads to support the clean energy transition and domestic hot water is one of the most obvious.

    “State and Federal Governments across Australia should harness this opportunity now, so that future pressures on the grid can be eased and Australians can get access to abundant, clean, and cheaper energy in their homes.”