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  • Failure to Invest in New Tech Damaging Economy, Incomes & Jobs

    Failure to Invest in New Tech Damaging Economy, Incomes & Jobs

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    Startling new research from the Centre for Future Work shows that Australia’s economy is now regressing in its use of new technology, with negative implications for productivity, incomes, and job quality.

    The report findings contrast sharply with the common concern that robots and other forms of automation will threaten future job security for Australian workers.

    Major findings include:

    • Business investment in new machinery (including robots) is weaker than at any point in Australia’s post-war history.
    • Business spending on new research and technology has also been falling in Australia, and now ranks well behind the average of other industrial countries (and even some emerging economies, like China).
    • The average amount of machinery and equipment used by the typical Australian worker has been declining since 2014, and has since fallen by 6%.
    • Because of less automation and innovation, average productivity in Australia’s economy has also been declining for three straight years – also the weakest performance in Australia’s post-war history.

    “Australian businesses are not investing nearly enough in new technology,” said Dr Jim Stanford, Economist and Director of the Centre for Future Work.

    “This lack of business investment in new technology does not mean that Australian jobs are somehow safer. To the contrary, the failure of business investment means that even more jobs will be located in low-productivity, low-tech, low-wage industries – with terrible implications for wages and job quality.

    “Business leaders love to complain that Australia’s productivity problems are due to red tape, taxes, and unions. The evidence is clear that their own failure to invest in new capital and new technology explains the stagnation in productivity. Instead of blaming others for this outcome, business leaders need to look in the mirror.”


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  • TAFE system supports $92.5 billion in annual economic benefits

    TAFE system supports $92.5 billion in annual economic benefits

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    New research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work shows the TAFE system supports $92.5 billion in annual economic benefits through the direct operation of TAFE institutes, higher incomes and productivity generated by the TAFE-credentialed workforce, and reduced social benefits costs.

    The report adopts a multidimensional approach to measuring the wide economic and social benefits of the TAFE system resulting from Australia’s historic investments in public vocational education. Over $6 billion in economic activity and 48,000 jobs are supported by the direct operation of TAFE institutes and the TAFE supply-chain. Through its accumulated contribution to the employability and skills of Australians, the TAFE system generates another flow of benefits worth $84.9 billion per year in higher incomes and productivity. Those benefits are shared by workers in higher incomes, firms in higher profits, and federal and state governments – which receive $25 billion per year in extra tax revenues. Finally, another $1.5 billion in fiscal savings are enjoyed by governments through reduced costs for health and welfare benefits for TAFE graduates. Altogether, the TAFE system drives $92.5 billion in benefits per year – equal to almost 5% of Australia’s GDP.

    The report finds despite chronic underfunding, Australia’s historic investment in the TAFE system continues to generate an enormous and ongoing dividend to the Australian economy. Increased public investment in the skills and earning capabilities of Australians will be critical to our post-pandemic recovery.

    Key Findings:

    • Australia’s historic investments in quality TAFE education supports a combined and ongoing flow of total economic benefits worth $92.5 billion to the Australian economy in 2019 — 16 times greater than the annual ‘maintenance’ costs Australia currently reinvests in the TAFE system.
    • The presence and activity of TAFE institutes ‘anchors’ over $6 billion per year in economic activity and 48,000 jobs from the direct operation of the TAFE system and its supply chain, and ‘downstream’ consumer spending impacts.
    • The TAFE-trained workforce generates $84.9 billion per year in higher incomes and business productivity. $49.3 billion is paid in additional earnings to TAFE-credentialed workers (relative to earnings of workers without post-school training); businesses receive $35.6 billion in increased profits from a more productive TAFE-trained workforce.
    • The costs of delivering TAFE are modest – only $5.7 billion per year, or 0.3% GDP. Extra tax revenues received by governments thanks to the superior productivity and incomes of TAFE-trained workers alone are worth $25 billion per year: 4.4 times more than the total costs of running the TAFE system.
    • The TAFE system increases employability and lowers unemployment. TAFE graduates enter the labour force with better employment prospects and skills. The increased labour force participation and employability of TAFE graduates corresponds to additional employment of 486,000.
    • The TAFE system promotes wider social benefits critical to addressing inequality. TAFE helps ‘bridge’ access to further education and jobs pathways in regional areas and for special and at-risk youth groups. TAFE students are more likely to come from low-income households and identify as Aboriginal compared with private VET providers.

    “Australia will squander the demonstrated economic benefits generated by our investments in the TAFE system, and unnecessarily limit our post-COVID recovery if we don’t act quickly to reinstate the critical role that TAFE plays in the VET system,” said Alison Pennington, senior economist at the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.  

    “The Australian economy is reaping an enormous flow of economic benefits from a VET ‘house’ built by the TAFE system. But the ‘house’ that TAFE institutes built is crumbling. If Australia wants to secure the benefits of a superior, productive TAFE-trained workforce as we prepare for post-COVID reconstruction, the damage must be repaired quickly.

    “Major public skills investments will be best coordinated by TAFE institutes as the longest-standing and most reliable ‘anchors’ of vocational training and must be at the centre of an economic reconstruction process.

    “By providing bridges to further education and jobs for regional, low-income and at-risk youth groups, the TAFE system is critically important to addressing systemic inequality in Australia’s economy and society.”


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  • Post-COVID Manufacturing Renewal Represents Potential $50 Billion Boost to Economy

    Post-COVID Manufacturing Renewal Represents Potential $50 Billion Boost to Economy

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    New research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work reveals that Australia ranks last among all OECD countries for manufacturing self-sufficiency. While this indicator confirms the dramatic decline of domestic manufacturing in recent years, it also reveals the enormous potential benefits that would be generated by rebuilding manufacturing back to a size proportional to our national needs: including $180 billion in new sales, $50 billion in additional GDP, and over 400,000 new jobs.

    Key Findings:

    • Australia ranks last in manufacturing self-sufficiency among all OECD countries. Australians use $565 billion worth of manufactures each year, however, we only produce $380 billion. Therefore, Australia produces only 68% (just over two-thirds) of what we use: less than any other OECD economy.
    • The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the strategic importance of domestic manufacturing capacity. Disruptions in global supply chains and protectionist trade policies by foreign governments have increased risks we might not be able to access essential products (like health equipment and supplies) when we need it.
    • Manufacturing is not just ‘another’ sector of the economy. For several concrete reasons, manufacturing carries strategic importance to broader national prosperity and security.
      • Australians purchase and use more manufactured goods over time; and manufacturing output is growing around the world. Allowing domestic manufacturing to decline, while our use of manufactured products grows, undermines national economic performance.
      • Manufacturing is the most innovation-intensive sector in the whole economy. No country can be an innovation leader without a strong manufacturing base.
      • Manufactured goods account for over two-thirds of world merchandise trade. A country that cannot successfully export manufactures will be shut out of most trade.
      • Manufacturing anchors hundreds of thousands of other jobs throughout the economy, thanks to its long and complex supply chain. Billions of dollars’ worth of supplies and inputs are purchased by manufacturing facilities, supporting many other sectors of the economy.
      • Manufacturing offers high-quality jobs, full-time hours and above-average incomes. And thanks to strong productivity growth and the capacity to apply modern technology, manufacturing offers the prospect of rising incomes in the future.

    “As Australian governments and business leaders realise the importance of manufacturing in rebuilding the national economy after COVID, this research shows that Australia now has the smallest manufacturing industry relative to domestic purchases of any OECD country,” said Dr. Jim Stanford, Director of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work and author of the report.

    “These findings confirm the enormous task ahead of the country in rebuilding our domestic manufacturing capacity. However, it also highlights the enormous economic benefits that would be generated by getting manufacturing back to a proportional size: including $180 billion in new sales, $50 billion in new GDP, and over 400,000 new direct jobs.

    “While two-way international trade in manufactured products will always be essential, as a nation we should be manufacturing in aggregate as much as we are using. If we rebuilt a manufacturing sector that was broadly proportionate to our needs, our manufacturing industry would grow by almost 50% – generating enormous benefits in jobs, incomes, innovation and exports.”


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  • 93 Economic Experts Back Govt Wages Subsidy in Open Letter

    93 Economic Experts Back Govt Wages Subsidy in Open Letter

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    93 Australian economists and policy experts have signed an open letter, coordinated by the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute, supporting a government wage subsidy to prevent mass unemployment during the coming economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Signatories to the open letter include Bernie Fraser, former Secretary to the Treasury and Governor of the Reserve Bank; Professor Roy Green, former Dean of Business at UTS; Professor Andrew Stewart, Professor of Law at the University of Adelaide; RMIT Distinguished Professor Sara Charlesworth; Professor John Howe, Director of the University of Melbourne School of Government; and Rae Cooper, Professor of Gender, Work and Employment Relations at the University of Sydney.

    The open letter states, in part:

    “The coming recession will be unprecedented in Australian history – in both its speed and its depth. Without immediate action, we expect that 1-2 million workers, or even more, could lose their jobs in coming weeks. That would drive unemployment to 15% or higher, overwhelm income support programs, and leave hundreds of thousands of businesses unable to function – even after the immediate health danger passes.

    “We recommend that the Commonwealth government immediately implement a large-scale wage subsidy scheme, similar to those already enacted in several other industrial countries.”

    “The breadth of support we received on this open letter confirms the proposal is supported by a broad cross-section of Australian stakeholders. The Government needs to move quickly now to implement this measure, and ease this pandemic’s devastating economic effects,” said Dr Jim Stanford, Director of the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute, and author of the open letter.

    The wage subsidy proposal has also been supported by many Australian unions, business peak bodies, and other stakeholders.

    Bernie Fraser, former Secretary to the Treasury and Reserve Bank Governor said, “Australia’s post-corona economic resurrection requires the on-going preservation both of the skills and self-esteem of our workforces, and of our business and entrepreneurial talents. If Australia is serious about ensuring the readiness of our work-forces to spring into action when the time comes, it should provide appropriate support direct to those workforces, as several other countries appear to be doing.”

    Professor John Howe, Director of the Melbourne School of Government, said, “Wage subsidies are a longstanding and legitimate form of government support for job creation and retention. In the context of the current crisis, an urgently implemented wage subsidy program will help workers retain income and stay in employment, unlike direct welfare payments. And they are more accountable than boosting cash flow to employers, which may or may not be used to save jobs.”

    Professor Roy Green, former Dean of Business at UTS, said, “The duty of the Australian Government in these extraordinary times is to ensure that a short term crisis does not become a long term disaster for the nation. In fact, the Prime Minister has referenced the need to build a ‘bridge’ to a better, stronger economy. For this to happen, the bridge must include substantial wage subsidies to retain workforces for the recovery and provide them with an income as they reskill and reposition our industries for the future.”

    The full open letter and list of signatories can be viewed here.

    A catalogue of international initiatives to support workers, compiled by the Centre for Future Work, is available here.


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  • Public Sector Pay Freezes Could Push Economy From Recession to Depression

    Public Sector Pay Freezes Could Push Economy From Recession to Depression

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    New research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work reveals the consequences of freezing public service pay, both for public sector workers and for the broader economy.

    Governments are devoting unprecedented resources to protecting Australians against the health and economic effects of the pandemic, but a contradictory push to adopt fiscal austerity measures is also becoming apparent. Leaders of governments at all levels — federal, state and local council – have already announced plans to freeze wages and cancel previously agreed pay raises for public servants.

    Key findings:

    • At least 35% of the purported ‘savings’ from freezing public service pay is offset by the loss of direct tax revenues that would have been collected as a result of higher income and spending by public servants. And considering other tax revenue losses from the resulting slowdown in broader wage growth, even more of those ‘savings’ are never realised.
    • Pay freezes in the public sector spill over into weaker economy-wide wage growth through three key channels: a composition effect, a demonstration effect, and a macroeconomic effect.
    • Freezing pay for even short periods reduces the lifetime income and superannuation savings of public sector workers by tens of thousands of dollars, because it permanently reduces their lifetime wage trajectory.
      • A 6-month pay freeze for a typical federal APS worker will reduce career earnings by an estimated $23,500, and superannuation accumulations by another $4000 or more. The longer 2-year freeze contemplated for Brisbane local council workers would reduce career earnings by over $100,000, and superannuation accumulations by $17,500.
    • Misguided public sector wage restraint in the aftermath of the GFC short-circuited an initial recovery in private-sector wage trends in 2010-11, and helped lock in a lasting deceleration of national wages after 2013. Since then Australia has experienced the slowest sustained wage growth in the entire post-war era.

    “Pay freezes are being imposed at the very moment when public sector workers such as healthcare workers, first responders, teachers and social service providers are performing vital tasks, at personal risk to themselves, to support Australians through the pandemic. Freezing pay for these essential workers is not just morally questionable — it’s also a major economic mistake,” said Dr. Jim Stanford, Director of the Centre for Future Work.

    “The motivation for public sector wage austerity seems more ideological than fiscal or economic: pay freezes are justified with appeals to ‘shared sacrifice,’ and a symbolic desire to ‘tighten the purse strings’ at a moment when governments are about to incur their largest deficits in history.

    “However, our research shows these arbitrary pay freezes are both unfair and economically counterproductive. Government policy should be driven by economic reality, not political optics.

    “Public sector wage austerity imposed after the Global Financial Crisis helped ‘lock in’ historically slow wage growth in the private sector in the years that followed. Since then, wages in Australia have grown at their slowest sustained rate in the post-war era.

    “Australia cannot tolerate a further deceleration of wage and price inflation. Inflation was already close to zero, chronically falling below the RBA’s inflation target, even before the economy was hit by the double shock of bushfires and COVID-19.

    “Economy-wide deflation is associated with long-term depression. Australia cannot risk letting any COVID-19 recession turn into a depression. At this pivotal moment, governments’ priority should be anchoring price expectations, supporting nominal incomes, and contributing to aggregate demand. Normal wage gains should be implemented in the public sector and encouraged in the private sector.”


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  • Polling – Casual workers and the wage subsidy

    Polling – Casual workers and the wage subsidy

    The Commonwealth government’s proposed JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme represents an important and promising response to the COVID-19 shutdown of several key sectors of Australia’s economy. The scheme would support an estimated $130 billion worth of wage payments over the coming 6 months, keeping millions of Australians in jobs even if their employers experience major revenue losses from the restrictions that have been imposed on activity, mobility, and work during the pandemic.

    However, the program as originally proposed contains several design flaws that will seriously undermine the effectiveness of the program if they are not fixed.

    These include, most prominently, the arbitrary exclusion of over 1 million casual workers (those who have not been continuously employed by their current workplace for at least 12 months), over 1 million foreign visa workers (other than New Zealanders on special 444 visas), and many thousands of temp and day-hire workers in industries such as arts, film, and construction (whose employers technically no longer exist).

    Our partners at the Australia Institute recently conducted polling of Australians regarding these exclusions in the JobKeeper program. An overwhelming majority of respondents, from all political persuasions, support making the program available to all casual workers regardless of their tenure with their existing employer. 81% of respondents support extending the wage subsidy to all casual workers.

    For a full breakdown of the polling results, please see the Australia Institute’s full report below.

    Other concerns with the government’s proposal include the possibility that employers could compel workers to draw down paid annual leave even while their wages are being largely or fully covered by government, and the risk that employers would use the program’s $1500 per fortnight benefit level to push down wages or unilaterally alter hours of work.

    These concerns in the proposed program design can and should be corrected by government, in order to maximise the potential positive effects of the scheme in preserving employment and income levels.

    See our summary table of the ‘pros and cons’ of the JobKeeper program as initially proposed by government:



    Full report

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  • 81% of Australians support JobKeeper for all Casual Workers

    81% of Australians support JobKeeper for all Casual Workers

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    New polling shows more than eight in ten Australians support extending the wage subsidy, known as the JobKeeper program, to all casual workers, regardless of how long they have worked at their place of employment.

    The Australia Institute surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,008 people between 3 and 6 April 2020.

    Key Findings:

    • Australians overwhelmingly support (81%) extending the wage subsidy to casual workers, regardless of length of employment, only 11% are opposed to extending the wage subsidy.
    • Strong support for extending the wage subsidy to casual workers regardless of length of employment was seen across voters of all parties. 79% of Coalition voters support (14% oppose), 88% of Labor voters support (6% oppose), 80% of Greens voters support (9% oppose), 78% of One Nation voters support (15% oppose), and 69% Independent/other support (13% oppose).
    • The Government’s ‘JobKeeper’ wage subsidy program currently only applies to casual workers who have been working at their current place of employment for 12 months or longer. This results in over 1 million short-tenure casual workers (under 12 months) being excluded. Apart from hurting those workers, this will also create a serious disadvantage for businesses which rely on short-tenure workers for their staffing needs (including in the retail, hospitality, and agriculture industries).

    “The JobKeeper program is an important and necessary support to help Australian workers through the COVID19 pandemic and accompanying recession,” said Dr. Jim Stanford, director of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    “This research demonstrates that the Australian public recognises the necessity of the JobKeeper program, and wants to see the program enhanced to include the one million casual workers who are currently excluded from the scheme.

    “Short-tenure casual workers are among some of the most vulnerable in our society. Many are living paycheck to paycheck, and already living on the brink – they need more support during this crisis, not less.

    Stanford noted that the JobKeeper scheme will also exclude over one million foreign visa workers. “Driving short-term casuals and foreign visa workers into unemployment is unfair to them, it is unfair to their employers, and it poses significant risks to public health,” Dr. Stanford said.


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  • Catalogue of International Initiatives to Support Workers through COVID-19

    Catalogue of International Initiatives to Support Workers through COVID-19

    The Australian government has pushed back against introducing needed measures to support workers in casual, self-employed, or gig positions during the unprecedented labour market turmoil resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Other countries, however, are moving quickly with unprecedented measures to support jobs and incomes for all workers – including those in non-standard employment – to ensure they can take necessary time away from work, and do not lose their livelihoods as a result of the virus. We have assembled a catalogue of international initiatives aimed at achieving these dual outcomes.


    Update January 2021: Further JobKeeper and JobSeeker supports have been withdrawn. As of 4 Jan 2021, the JobKeeper subsidy is now at a maximum of $1000 per fortnight until 28 March 2021. The JobSeeker coronavirus supplement has been reduced to $150 per fortnight until 31 March 2021. We are concerned that the government is withdrawing supports too fast and too soon, especially as intermittent outbreaks of the COVID-19 virus, and concomitant lockdowns, continue in various Australian states.

    We have added further information on the US response.

    Update September 2020: The JobKeeper subsidy has been extended from 28 September 2020 to 28 March 2021, at incrementally lower rates as this period continues. In brief, the JobKeeper wage subsidy will continue until March next year, but payments will fall from $1500 to $1200 a fortnight after September (or $750 for those working less than 20 hours per week). The JobSeeker coronavirus supplement will continue until December but fall from $550 to $250 a fortnight, meaning people on the program will receive $815 a fortnight after September.

    The Commonwealth is providing $1500 of paid pandemic leave in Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, and Tasmania for workers who need to self-isolate either because they are suffering from the virus or because they are caring from someone who is. At this stage, other states and territories have not signed onto this agreement.

    We have added further information on the UK’s response.

    Update July 2020: Governments around the world continue to take extraordinary measures to contain the economic damage associated with COVID-19. The Australian government has flagged that it will end the JobKeeper wage subsidy and the JobSeeker COVID subsidy (essentially doubling the unemployment benefit) in September, and has already done so for childcare, with negative on-effects for both a particularly feminised workforce and for working women more broadly. Given that economic conditions continue to worsen despite the government’s efforts thus far, it is hard to see how ending JobKeeper across the board would be either politically or economically feasible. In contrast, internationally, governments are expanding economic measures, including those specifically aimed at young workers.

    Update March 2020: The Australian government announced a massive $130 billion wage subsidy program, to catch up with similar schemes that have been implemented in other countries (described in detail below). This is a welcome development, attributable largely to the advocacy of the ACTU and its affiliated unions. However, there are several weaknesses in the design of the scheme – most acutely, the fact that it excludes over 2 million short-tenure casual workers and foreign visa workers. Watch this site for a more detailed analysis of the pro’s and con’s of the government’s package. And we will continue to update the catalogue below with relevant developments from other countries as the world continues to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.


    Catalogue of International COVID-19 Labour Market Responses

    Australia Hong Kong New Zealand UK
    Canada Ireland Norway USA
    Denmark Italy South Korea  
    France Japan Spain  
    Germany Netherlands Sweden  

    The COVID-19 pandemic poses unprecedented risks to economies and societies around the world: both health risks and economic risks. Because of the urgent medical advice to social distance, and isolate people who may have been infected by or exposed to the virus, normal working patterns are being disrupted for tens of millions of workers. And with so many people unable to work and produce, GDP and incomes are collapsing around us in real time.

    Most governments are recognising the incredible urgency of this situation and moving quickly to provide emergency supports for workers, households, and the economy. A top priority in this regard must be aligning social and labour policy with medical directions to isolate infected and potentially infected workers. In this task, we suddenly confront the painful reality of the modern precarious labour market – which has outdated many of our traditional income support and insurance protections.

    Our research indicates that in Australia today less than half of all employed people hold a ‘standard’ permanent full-time waged job with normal entitlements. All others experience one or more dimensions of precarity: part-time hours, temporary or casual status, or various forms of self-employment (most of which are very insecure). Casual and self-employed workers receive no sick pay; many part-time workers do not have effective protection (since their hours are often irregular); and even permanent full-time workers may have already used some or all of their entitlement. With sick pay thus unavailable for a large and growing share of the workforce, there is great risk that individuals will be forced to choose between earning money to buy food and pay rent, and heeding the public health advice to isolate themselves as needed.

    Apart from increasing Newstart and waiving a waiting period for Newstart sickness benefits, the Australian government has provided no support for the one million casual workers of less than 12 months job tenure who do not qualify for normal paid sick leave or the new JobKeeper allowance. A further one million migrant workers are ineligible for either JobKeeper or social security payments.

    The Attorney-General even suggested that casual workers have somehow already “made provisions” for income disruptions by setting aside funds for an emergency such as this one. And leading business lobbyists have claimed that casual workers already in fact receive sick pay (via their supposedly higher hourly wages). These responses are far-fetched and dangerous. Ignoring the financial stress of casual and migrant workers in this moment enhances the risk that they may continue to perform their jobs when they should be at home, risking further spread of the virus to colleagues and customers.

    In June 2020, the government supplemented its existing JobKeeper and and JobSeeker measures with HomeBuilder, which provides eligible owner-occupiers (including first home buyers) with a grant of $25,000 to build a new home or substantially renovate an existing home. Given the income cap associated with the measure ($125,000pa for an individual applicant or $200,000pa for a couple), in combination with the high threshold for the size of the build or renovation ($150,000), it is not clear that uptake of the program will be high. Even if take-up of the grant is as high as the government estimates, the estimated $680 million budget impact pales into insignificance against the total economic hit Australia has sustained, and the other measures the government has put into place.

    In July 2020, the government announced that it would pay a one-off $750 payment to Australians receiving certain government allowances. Although this is timely and targeted at Australians with the greatest propensity to spend rather than save, it is too small to make an ongoing, systemic difference to the recovery. Economists argue that to restore consumer confidence, Australia needs more certainty about the broader shape of the economic recovery.

    Countries around the world continue to take extraordinary steps to protect workers, support incomes, and ensure that benefits are provided to the large numbers of non-standard workers who now constitute such a large part of the labour market. To inform the continuing policy debate in Australia, we have gathered summary information (and links for further information) on just some of these measures from other countries. So we can keep this catalogue up to date, please forward further suggestions and links to futurework@tai.org.au. Here we focus on measures affecting job and income security for workers and working-class households, rather than other measures (such as loan guarantees and liquidity measures implemented by governments and central banks) also aimed at offsetting the devastating impact of the pandemic on world economies.

    Canada

    The Canadian federal government will pay a 75% direct wage subsidy to businesses and non-profit employers of any size, for workers who will be kept on the payroll (whether actively working or not). The subsidy applies to wages up to $58,700 per year (125% of median wages) is capped, providing a maximum weekly subsidy of $847. The government earlier announced a new income support program for workers affected by the pandemic: the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) will pay up to 4 months of benefit at $2000 per month to any workers (permanent, temporary and casual, self-employed, or gig workers) required to self-isolate, care for someone who is ill, care for children while schools are closed, or who lose their jobs for economic reasons during the pandemic but do not qualify for normal Employment Insurance (update: as of June 2020, CERB has been extended for two more months, with the government noting that there are far more unemployed and willing workers than there are job opportunities). The program has replaced traditional Employment Insurance for those who are not currently receiving EI benefits; the EI system became overwhelmed by applications, leading the government to move to this alternative system, delivered through the income tax administration, including on-line processing ability. The government is also boosting payments for GST credits and child benefits, deferring student loan repayments, and deferring income tax filing by four months.

    Denmark

    Denmark’s strong centralised tripartite industrial relations system has allowed that country to quickly implement a novel and powerful response to the labour market effects of the pandemic. The program was reached through agreement between the government, unions, and employer associations… perhaps like a “COVID-19 Accord,” to use an Australian analogy. For up to 3 months, the government will cover up to 75% of the wage costs of salaried workers, and 90% for hourly employees, up to 26,000 kroner ($6500A) per month. It applies to any company that otherwise would make redundant 30% or more of its staff, or at least 50 people. Some casual and contract workers are covered, but not self-employed. Employers cover the other 25% of wages; workers agree to use 5 days of annual leave during the subsidised period. The budget for the plan estimates that 2.5% of private sector workers will be covered by it, but there is no ceiling on the number.

    France

    The government has announced many far-reaching measures, including paying French workers temporarily laid off by their employers due to the coronavirus crisis a “partial unemployment benefit” equal to 84% of their wages, and employers are obliged to keep their jobs open for them.

    Additionally, France has announced a moratorium on household mortgage, utility, rent and credit card payments, and an open-ended pledge that no company will be allowed to go bankrupt during the crisis. Social security contributions by workers and employers are reduced by €35 billion. Unemployment benefits are now available to people whose hours have been cut (but are still working part-time), costing another €8.5 billion. A special “solidarity fund” will pay benefits to self-employed workers and shop-keepers. The government has indicated it is prepared to nationalise major companies facing potential bankruptcy during the downturn, to keep them in business and protect jobs.

    Germany

    Europe’s industrial heartland also pledged unlimited financial support to prevent any company from going bankrupt during the crisis. Employers will pay full salary during the first 6 weeks of absence from work, compensated by government; after that, compensation is paid according to existing sick pay schedules. Government compensation will also be paid directly to self-employed and freelancers based on their declared income in the previous year. Under Germany’s powerful short-time working allowance, hours are reduced, and employers pay for time actually worked at normal rates; the government then tops up the total income to 60% of after-tax levels (67% for workers who are parents). This allows companies to maintain full staff complements, even while reducing hours to offset a downturn in business activity.

    Hong Kong

    A cash subsidy of $10,000HK (about $2200A) is paid to every adult resident. People in public housing (which makes up most of Hong Kong’s residences) receive one month of free rent. One extra month of old age and disability benefits is paid. Home buyers, students, and small businesses also received support, in an overall aid package worth over 4% of GDP.

    Ireland

    The government will directly pay 70% of wages for workers who would otherwise be made redundant, at any business experiencing a revenue decline of 25% or more. The scheme replaces wages up to €410 per week. The government also reformed sick pay, illness benefits, and supplementary unemployment benefits to cover all workers (including self-employed) for the length of the health crisis, so that workers of any status can follow medical advice to self-isolate or care for others. A new Pandemic Unemployment Support Payment is made available to all workers (including self-employed) who lose all work due to the crisis (whether for their own health reasons, or economic impacts). Up to €350 per week will be paid for up to 12 weeks; there is a simple 1-page form to apply, and no waiting period. The former 6-day waiting period for Illness Benefits is waived, and the maximum benefit is raised to €305 per week for 2 weeks. Short-time Work Support can be paid (for up to 234 days) to workers whose hours have been reduced (to 3 days per week or less), paying up to €81.20 per day not worked.

    Italy

    Hard-hit Italy has introduced far-reaching measures based on tripartite agreements between the government, unions, and industrialists, to reduce job loss and support wages. Sick leave is paid to any workers who lose work because of illness, or closure of their workplace due to health concerns (the first 3 days covered by the employer, and then after that by the government). €1000 per month will be provided to any workers who lose their jobs because of the crisis; there is also a €500 per month payment to self-employed workers and freelancers. Mortgage payments have been suspended. The government, unions and employers have also negotiated special safety measures for workers, to maintain production and distribution of essential supplies.

    Japan

    As part of its emergency response to the growing COVID-19 crisis, the Japanese government intends to give most businesses tax breaks, including property tax reductions, tax deferments, and the ability to carry back losses.

    On April 7 Japan declared a state of emergency, announcing a raft of health and safety measures to help slow the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. To help offset the negative effects that those measures will have on economic activity, Abe also announced an economic package worth ¥108 trillion (about $998 billion), equivalent to 20 percent of the country’s GDP. The package would provide ¥2 million to small and medium-size enterprises and “relatively larger corporations,” and ¥1 million to individual business owners.

    Netherlands

    The government will pay wages for workers at businesses which experience falling revenues as a result of the pandemic. The proportion of wages covered varies with the intensity of firms’ revenue losses. Maximum wage payment is 90% of pre-pandemic wage levels. The program replaces the previous short-time work plan, and will last for 3 months (with a 3-month extension if needed). Benefits are retroactive to 1 March. Firms will immediately receive 80% of their estimated compensation upon application; adjustments (as needed) will be made after inspection of submitted documentation. The program also applies to freelance workers.

    New Zealand

    The government support package is worth over $12 billion (NZ), or 4% of New Zealand’s GDP. Close to half the value is for immediate wage subsidies for businesses to prevent redundancies: $585(NZ) per week per full-time worker, for up to 12 weeks. Similar weekly benefits ($585/week for full-time workers, $350 for part-time) will be paid for anyone (including contractors and self-employed) forced into self-isolation or to care for others, for up to 8 weeks. $3 billion is for additional targeted aid for lower-income households, including seniors, and a permanent increase in an energy subsidy. Close to $500 million is allocated to supporting immediate health responses.

    Norway

    The government removed the three-day waiting period for unemployment benefits; it also committed to continue paying salaries of workers who would otherwise face short-term redundancies. Companies can defer forwarding payroll tax to the government, to supplement cash flow during the downturn. The government is also offering 100 billion krone (over 10% of GDP) in loans and guarantees for business lending and bond issues (split half-and-half between smaller and large companies).

    South Korea

    In South Korea, when employers cease operations and make workers redundant, they are legally required to make redundancy payments equal to at least 70% of workers’ previous wages. But with the scale of shutdowns happening now, the government will step in to make those payments instead: covering 70% of wages up to ₩130,000 ($A185) per day. Applications for the subsidy have been being accepted since 17 February. The program can also be utilised to subsidise paid leave for workers in the event of temporary stand-downs: again, the government pays the first ₩130,000 ($A185) per day, and the employer pays the remainder.

    Spain

    As of early April, Spain is moving to establish a permanent universal basic income. No specific date has been announced for its introduction. If passed, this will make Spain the first country in Europe to do introduce the payments truly universal (there have been regional trials in Finland and the Netherlands). While the details remain unclear, the policy framework generally entails regular no-strings-attached cash payments to citizens/residents or households.

    Jobless benefits were increased (including for workers who would not normally qualify), as part of a €200 billion package, equal to 20% of GDP (half of that is loan guarantees for private firms). Workers are granted full pay while self-isolating or caring for family members. The government also announced a one-month moratorium on mortgage payments and utility bill payments (potentially extendable).

    Sweden

    A 300 billion kroner support package (worth about 6% of GDP) contains numerous measures to stabilise employment and incomes.

    A subsidy for work-sharing and covering the costs of short-term layoffs has been significantly increased: the central government will cover 75% of wage costs when hours are reduced, in order to maintain workers’ total income at 90% of initial levels. The government would assume 75% of the cost for the employee’s reduced work hours. The former one-day waiting period before qualifying for sick pay has been eliminated, and the central government will cover the full costs of all sick leave (normally paid by employers) during April and May. Self-employed persons and contractors will also be covered for 14 days of sick pay, also paid by the government.

    Companies can defer payment to government of social security payments, deducted income tax (from workers), and collected GST for up to 3 months, to supplement their cash flow through the crisis. The central bank is directly lending up to another 500 billion kroner (over 10% of GDP) to companies to maintain operations and viability.

    There is also a proposal for temporary reinforcement of the unemployment insurance. More places and more distance learning at higher education institutions have been proposed, as well as more opportunities for vocational education and training throughout the country. It has been proposed that the income ceiling for health and medical students receiving student aid be temporarily removed in order for those students to support the healthcare sector without their student aid being reduced.

    The Government has proposed an extra SEK 1 billion to the cultural sector and sports movement in support due to the economic consequences affecting these sectors as a result of the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

    UK

    Update: In September 2020, the UK Chancellor detailed a different approach to their Wage Subsidy program, which pays 80% of wages and finishes at the end of October. The new Job Support Scheme program will target support to ‘viable’ jobs. It will NOT continue the blanket approach to supporting payroll costs and will exclude workers who are on payroll but not actually working (on layoff or leave or ‘furlough’). The JSS will cover 22% of pay for workers in ‘viable’ jobs for the next 6 months. To qualify, British workers will need to work at least one-third of their normal hours with the employer paying them their normal wages for those hours. Of the remaining two-thirds of the worker’s usual pay, the employer will pay 33 per cent and the government will pay 33 per cent. In total, the government will pay 22 per cent, capped at a maximum £697.72 a month. The employer will pay 55 per cent. 

    In July 2020, the British government put another $30 billion of stimulus into job retention and creation, with the intention of blunting the impact of the expiry of the government’s furlough schemes in October. Seeking to avoid creating a “lost generation” of young workers, the government are offering companies up to £6500 a time for any new jobs they create in coming months aimed at people aged 16 to 24, under a £2 billion “Kickstarter” program. Additionally, businesses would also receive a bonus for any apprenticeship they create, and any apprentice age 25 or over whom they hire.

    In addition to a large program of loan guarantees for businesses (worth some ₤300 billion), the UK government has announced ₤20 billion in direct aid to workers and households affected by workplace disruptions. Specific measures include deferred social security charges, and two months of direct state payments to workers who lose work because of shutdowns. Mandatory sick pay is provided for workers who must self-isolate or care for others, backed by sick pay subsidies to smaller employers. On March 20 the government announced a huge wage support program: it will directly pay the wages (up to ₤2500 per month, just above median income) for workers placed on furlough by employers of any size, in order to keep them on the firms’ payroll. The plan will initially last for 3 months (retroactive to 1 March), and there is no cap on the overall cost of the program. Self-employed workers receive a different stream of benefits: deferral of all tax assessments until January 2021, to be offset by credits equivalent to statutory sick pay received by waged workers.

    USA

    Update: Early in 2021, the US government will send further $600 direct deposits to adults of up to $75,000 annual income, plus another $600 per child. It is expected that there will be a third round of household relief following the commencement of the Biden Administration on 20 January 2021.

    The total package of supports passed 24 March by the US Congress is worth $2 trillion (US), or over 8% of US GDP. That includes $200 billion in secured loans to hard-hit businesses (including airlines). The package direct payments of $1200 to each adult with previous income up to $75,000; and smaller payments for those previously earning between $75,000 and $99,000. Families also receive payments of $500 per child. The federal government will also make special payments to unemployed workers of up to $600 per week – more than doubling the level of unemployment insurance paid by state governments. And a new federal-funded Pandemic Unemployment assistance Program will pay similar benefits to state unemployment benefits for self-employed contractors, gig workers, and others who wouldn’t normally qualify for state UI. Any employer with under 500 employees can receive loans to cover 6 weeks of their payroll costs (up to $1540 per worker), on condition there are no redundancies for at least 8 weeks after receiving the loan. Expanded eligibility to unemployment benefits is provided, backed up by federal aid to the state-run programs. Workers in firms with less than 500 employees are able to take up to 12 weeks of leave for self-isolation or caring for family members, receiving at least two-thirds of their normal pay (up to $200 per day, or $10,000 in total). Income tax filing is deferred by 90 days.


    It is clear that governments around the world are responding to this unprecedented labour market crisis with the urgency and creativity it requires. Policy must be reformed quickly and creatively to address the imperatives of keeping workers healthy, and ensuring that the pandemic does not destroy the livelihoods of millions. Australia’s government must embrace and maintain the same sense of determination.

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  • ‘Go Home on Time Day’ 2019: Australian Employers Pocketing $81 Billion Worth of Unpaid Overtime, Report Reveals

    ‘Go Home on Time Day’ 2019: Australian Employers Pocketing $81 Billion Worth of Unpaid Overtime, Report Reveals

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    New research from The Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work estimates that Australian workers are currently working an average of 4.6 hours of unpaid overtime each week, which translates to 6 weeks of full time work without pay, per employee, per year – with an annual worth of $81.5 billion for Australian employers.

    The Centre’s 11th annual ‘Go Home on Time Day’ report also reveals the growing polarisation of working hours, between Australians who have too much work and others who can’t get enough. While 21 percent of Australians in full-time employment are working more than they want to, 48 percent of part-time workers and 64 percent of casual workers want to work more hours.

    “There is an epidemic of time theft in Australia right now and it is costing workers tens of billions of dollars, each and every year,” said Bill Browne, researcher at The Australia Institute and author of the report.

    Each November, the Centre urges Australians to appreciate the value of their legitimate time off by leaving their jobs at the end of their paid workday.

    “Today is the day we ask all Australian workers to go home on time. We need to put limits on our work – and push back against the increasingly common expectation among employers that we should stay late for free.

    “Our research has shown that employees are regularly staying late, coming in early, working through their lunch or other breaks, taking work home on evenings and weekends or being contacted to perform work out of hours.

    “Most Australians wouldn’t dream of working for 6 weeks without pay, but that is happening every single year in the average Australian job.

    The Centre’s 2019 ‘Go Home on Time Day’ survey indicated that even part-time and casual workers, most of whom want more paid hours of work each week, are still being asked to work unpaid overtime.

    “At the same time as many Australian workers report they would prefer more hours of paid work, unpaid overtime is an all too frequent occurrence,” Browne said.

    “In an era of wage stagnation, underemployment, insecure work and significant cost of living pressures, Australian workers cannot afford to give their time away to employers for free.

    “To end the epidemic of time theft, regulators must enforce existing rules regarding maximum hours of work on a more consistent basis, and provide workers with more choice to refuse overtime and work shorter hours. Workers, either individually or through their unions, must also demand that employers respect their right to leisure time – for their own benefit, and for the good of Australian society.”


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  • Chronic Unemployment a Consequence of Deliberate Economic Policies

    Chronic Unemployment a Consequence of Deliberate Economic Policies

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    There is a contradiction between Australian macroeconomic policy—which deliberately maintains unemployment at 5% or higher—and a culture that blames unemployed people for their own unemployment and hardships.

    New research from the Centre for Future Work shows that there is no statistical evidence for the long-held assumption that if unemployment falls below its so-called “natural” or non-accelerating inflation rate (the NAIRU)—currently thought to be around 5% unemployment—that inflation and wages will grow uncontrollably. The report concludes that Australia’s controversial NAIRU concept and it’s use in economic policy should be abandoned.

    Key Findings:

    • Australian macroeconomic policy maintains elevated unemployment in order to restrain wage growth and inflation, this is known as the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).
    • There are around 3 million Australians who would like to work, or more work, but can’t: that’s more than four times higher than the official unemployment estimate.
    • The economic benefits of reducing unemployment are enormous. Every one-percentage point reduction in unemployment results in 134,000 new jobs, $10 billion in additional output, and billions of dollars in revenue for governments.
    • Monetary and fiscal policy should aim to steadily reduce unemployment to as low as possible, rather than targeting a certain minimum unemployment rate.

    “In Australia, we blame the unemployed for their supposed lack of skills and motivation but at the same time, use macroeconomic policy to stop unemployment getting ‘too low’ – it’s an enormous contradiction,” says David Richardson, senior research fellow at The Australia Institute.

    “Record-low wages growth, and Australia’s generally sluggish economic performance, make the need for a change in policy direction all the more urgent.

    “It is time for a fundamental rethink of Australian macroeconomic policy, which should instead be focused on restoring genuine full employment as the top priority.

    “Since chronic unemployment is the outcome of deliberate policy, the least society can do is fairly compensate those who have been hurt by this policy – raising Newstart would be a start.”


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