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Category: Wages & Entitlements

  • Addressing the health workforce crisis in the Pacific

    Labour Standards & Workers’ Rights, International Relations, Unions & Collective Bargaining, Wages & Entitlements

    Addressing the health workforce crisis in the Pacific

    by Fiona Macdonald, Lisa Heap and Charlie Joyce

    Authors

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

    Lisa Heap

    Senior Researcher

    Charlie Joyce

    Researcher

    Media release



    Australia dumps its care crisis on the Pacific – new report

    Labour mobility is a significant contributor to Pacific Islands’ economies.

    Australia and New Zealand’s temporary labour migration schemes for Pacific workers have expanded into more industries including personal care work in aged care.

    This has led to the loss of skilled health workers from Pacific Island countries, including registered nurses, to lower-skilled personal care jobs overseas.

    Workers who take up temporary migration in Australia and New Zealand are vulnerable to being underpaid and exploited, due to their visa status.

    This report examines the need for reform of labour migration systems and greater consultation with workers.



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    Australia dumps its care crisis on the Pacific – new report

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  • Too much work and too few paid hours?

    Labour Standards & Workers’ Rights, Wages & Entitlements

    Too much work and too few paid hours?

    Go Home On Time Day 2025
    by Fiona Macdonald

    Author

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

    Widespread dissatisfaction with paid work hours, and employees working excessive unpaid overtime, are two of the key findings of the 2025 Go Home on Time Day (GHOTD) survey. The annual survey, undertaken by the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute in early September, asked 1,001 Australian workers about their paid working hours and preferences and about any unpaid overtime they worked.

    The findings of the 2025 survey, marking the seventeenth Go Home on Time Day, are not dissimilar to the 2024 survey findings. A large minority of Australian workers would prefer either more or fewer paid work hours. Mostly, workers who are dissatisfied with their hours want more paid work hours (44% of all workers), while a smaller group (14%) want less paid work time.  Alongside the desire for more work many employees are working several hours of unpaid overtime each week. This is the case for employees of all ages and for men and women across most industries and occupations. The 2025 GHOTD survey found, on average, employees work unpaid overtime of 3.6 hours a week, equivalent to 173 hours, or over 4.5 weeks, a year. Paid at the median wage rate this amounts to a financial cost to each worker of $7,930 per year; in total a loss of $95.78 billion.

    A positive finding from the 2025 survey is that unpaid overtime among full-time employees appears to be continuing a slow decline, noted in 2024. This suggests the “Right to Disconnect” legislation, introduced for employees in large organisations in August 2024, may be having its intended impact. The legislation was only extended to small businesses in August 2025, so we might expect to see further declines in unpaid overtime in 2026. A less positive finding is that unpaid overtime is high among part-time and casual employees, many of whom are younger workers. The costs of unpaid overtime to these workers are substantial–especially when considered as a proportion of their paid work time, given their shorter paid work hours and often lower pay rates.

    Read the full report



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  • Solving the crisis: Raising the living standards of Australian workers

    Employment & Unemployment, Future of Work, Inequality, Labour Standards & Workers’ Rights, Social Security & Welfare, Unions & Collective Bargaining, Wages & Entitlements

    Solving the crisis: Raising the living standards of Australian workers

    by Lisa Heap

    Author

    Lisa Heap

    Senior Researcher

    Media release



    Feeling hopeless? You’re not alone. The untold story behind Australia’s plummeting standard of living

    Productivity might be the word on everyone’s lips in the lead up to the Albanese Government’s Economic Reform Roundtable  however weak productivity isn’t the cause of many of the problems experience by workers in Australia today nor is increasing productivity the solution. Rapid inflation after the pandemic, combined with rising interest rates and slow wage growth, left many Australian households struggling to afford necessities. The Reserve Bank’s (RBA) blunt strategy of raising interest rates to slow the economy post the pandemic both misdiagnosed the drivers of inflation and harmed Australian workers who struggled to manage increased mortgage repayments and other debts. The root causes of Australia’s post pandemic crisis—rising corporate profits, unjustifiable price hikes, and deep wage stagnation were ignored by the RBA.

    Despite a reduction in inflation and interest rates, too many Australians are still experiencing lower living standards after the turbulent events of the past five years. Official inflation figures may capture broad economic trends however, they do not adequately describe the real pressures experienced by working people—particularly when it comes to the impact of the increasing costs of essentials like food, housing, and energy. Australian workers can ill afford another round of RBA driven unemployment, austerity, and uncertainty.

    What will it take to repair the damage to Australian workers’ living standards?

    In a new publication, Solving the Crisis: Raising the Living standards of Australian workers, some of Australia’s leading progressive economists and social policy analysts explain what is going on and how to fix it. The origins of the current crisis in living standards are documented. A progressive policy agenda for a second term Albanese Government is advanced.

    The multidimensional policy agenda in Solving the Crisis calls for

    • increases in real wages
    • achieving full employment
    • better quality jobs and greater assistance and respect for those seeking employment
    • strengthening public services (including health care, childcare, aged care and education)
    • making fair and affordable housing available
    • developing a well-planned and supported transition to renewable energy sources.

    The key to the success of this agenda is centering the experience of workers’ and their families.

    Australia should adopt a progressive multidimensional economic agenda that lifts living standards, reduces inequality, and strengthens democracy, rather than a narrow concentration on productivity. Uniting people behind this progressive economic agenda helps counter the trend towards increasing inequality, division and conflict, that has been present in other countries.

    How to solve the living standards crisis

    Four policy papers are the core of  Solving the Crisis. These papers examine the main drivers of inequality and deteriorating living standards in Australia

    • Greg Jericho examines how inflation is misunderstood when disconnected from wage growth. He proposes a shift in Reserve Bank policy and a renewed focus on promoting real wage increases.
    • Peter Davidson  argues that growing inequality is not inevitable. Through strengthening the four key policy pillars – income support, minimum wages, full employment, and employment services – minimum incomes can be raised and inequality reduced.
    • Thomas Greenwell highlights how decades of declining collective bargaining and high underemployment have undermined living standards. He calls for renewed support for unions, stronger collective bargaining systems, and a focus on full employment in macroeconomic policy.
    • Charlie Joyce revisits the concept of the social wage—and argues that rebuilding and expanding the social wage can raise living standards, promote inclusion, and restore trust in democratic institutions.

    Together these papers provide practical policy solutions forming a platform for economic reform.

    Solving the Crisis helps working people to help cut through economic misinformation and political spin, offering a clear lens on the structural factors that have driven inequality and declining living standards.

    Progress is happening

    In its first term the Albanese Government has made cautious progress on living standards. This progress includes labour market reforms that have contributed to stronger wage growth. These reforms include supporting increases in the minimum wage, facilitating collective bargaining in hard-to-organise industries, funding support for wage increase in early childhood education and aged care. Cost-of-living measures, like energy rebates and expanded renter assistance, also provide important support to hard-hit households. Meanwhile, the easing of interest rates by the RBA—better late than never, may support future growth and job-creation.

    However, while prices are growing more slowly, the levels of many prices remain too high—especially for necessities like food, housing, and energy. Wages growth may have commenced however at the current pace, it will take several years to repair real wages, and restore the same purchasing power for workers they enjoyed before the pandemic. The quality of public services (another critical determinant of living standards) has been damaged by underfunding and overreliance on privatised provision, the costs of which we are currently seeing in early childhood education and care. Minimum income payments such as Jobseeker remain woefully inadequate. The system designed to support and assist people from unemployment into decent jobs is broken beyond repair. Meanwhile, global economic and geopolitical uncertainty threatens to derail this modest recovery before it really gets going.

    More work to be done

    At the 2025 federal election the Australian people rejected political parties proposing cuts to public services, short-term fixes (like petrol tax cuts), and the politics of division. In its second term the Albanese Government has a unique opportunity to implement progressive policy changes such as those contained in Solving the Crisis.

    More details about Solving the Crisis and additional resources are available at https://www.carmichaelcentre.org.au/living_standards.



    Solving the Crisis: Raising the living standards of Australian workers

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  • Productivity in the Real World

    Employment & Unemployment, Tax, Spending & the Budget, Wages & Entitlements

    Productivity in the Real World

    What it is, what it isn’t, and how to make it work better for workers
    by Jim Stanford

    Author

    Jim Stanford

    Media release



    Australia does not have a “productivity crisis” – new research

    Claims that Australia faces a productivity crisis are overblown. Weak productivity didn’t cause the current problems facing Australian workers (falling real wages, high interest rates, unaffordability of essentials like housing and energy). Nor will higher productivity fix these problems.

    Faith that higher productivity will automatically trickle down, to be shared by all workers, is unfounded. Pro-active measures to lift wages and living standards are needed if stronger productivity growth is to support stronger living standards.

    This report presents empirical evidence showing that productivity growth in recent decades has not been equally reflected in higher real wages and better living standards.

    • Productivity grew four times faster since 2000 than average wages adjusted for consumer prices; it grew almost twice as fast as average wages adjusted for producer prices.
    • If workers had received wage increases since 2000 that matched productivity growth, wages would be as much as 18% higher than they are at present – worth $350 per week, or $18,000 per year.
    • Over time, the failure of wages to keep up with productivity has created a “productivity debt” effectively owed to workers, worth hundreds of thousands of dollars per worker.

    The fruits of productivity growth have been disproportionately captured in the form of business profits, dividend payouts, and executive compensation. It is only through deliberate measures to ensure productivity growth is reflected in improved compensation and conditions for workers that Australian workers can have any confidence their contributions to improved productivity will pay off in better lives. Repairing the link between productivity and mass prosperity, by strengthening the institutions of distribution and pushing wealth downward (rather than hoping it will trickle down automatically), is as important to Australia’s future productivity as any labour-saving technological breakthrough.

    The report concludes with a broad agenda of high-level policy themes that should be pursued to challenge and support Australian workplaces to become more productive – and to ensure the resulting gains are broadly shared.



    Productivity in the Real World




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    Australia does not have a “productivity crisis” – new research

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  • The curious incident of low wages growth

    Unions & Collective Bargaining, Wages & Entitlements

    The curious incident of low wages growth

    Wages and Policy in the 21st Century Report No. 1
    by David Peetz

    Author

    David Peetz

    Laurie Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow

    A new Carmichael Centre report by David Peetz considers why wages growth has been so low, despite a tight labour market and a brief surge in inflation.

    Asking why has there been no wages explosion, Peetz finds the answer lies in loss of power.

    The report documents how workers have lost power in the past two decades, with almost every change in the economy taking away workers’ bargaining power.

    From 2014 to 2022 most government policies took away workers’ bargaining power. The most recent industrial relations reforms in 2022-2024 shifted the pendulum back some way towards workers. These laws increased workers power and have also boosted wages growth.

    The analysis shows that all workers have had their wages damaged by lack of power. And all workers have been able to recover some ground since the recent industrial relations laws have come into effect.

    • Australian workers can no longer obtain the wage increases that they previously could from wage negotiations. Workers do not contribute to inflation.
    • Changes in power have combined to normalise low wages growth, for both union and non-union workers, even in tight labour markets. Of 16 developments in the labour market and economy over the past 50 years, 14 signalled deterioration in worker power, one an improvement in power for female workers only, and one an improvement only from 2010 until 2023 (lower unemployment).
    • The one countervailing force in recent times has been public policy which, since 2022, has led to some increases in workers’ power. Analysis of 34 policy events showed that the majority of those before 2022 further reduced workers’ bargaining power, while almost all of those since then have increased workers’ power.
    • In March 2014 wages were 53.0% of national income, but by December 2022 they had fallen to just 50.3%, before recovering to 53.5% by September 2024.
    • Wages grew at a little over 2% per year through most of the period from 2013-14.  After September 2022, they grew more quickly, to over 4% per annum throughout 2023-24.
    • The wage gains associated with increased worker power are not just restricted to unionists, but they are likely greater for unionists than non-unionists.



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  • The Continuing Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation

    Wages & Entitlements

    The Continuing Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation

    Minimum and award wages should grow by 5 to 9 per cent this year
    by Greg Jericho

    Author

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

    Media release



    The continuing irrelevance of minimum wages to future inflation

    Updated analysis by the by the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute reveals that a fair and appropriate increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation. The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1990, and finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation. It also reveals that such an increase to award wages could be met with only a small reduction in profit margins.

    The report, authored by Greg Jericho, based on previous work by both he and Jim Stanford finds that an increase to the National Minimum Wage and award wages of between 5.8% and 9.2% in the Fair Work Commission’s Annual Wage Review, due in June, is required to restore the real buying power of low-paid workers to pre-pandemic trends. The report also finds that this would not significantly affect headline inflation.

    Key findings of the report include:

    • Last year’s decision, which lifted the minimum wage and award wages by 3.75 per cent, offset the inflation of the previous year but still left those on Modern Awards with real earnings below what they were in 2020.
    • By June this year, the real value of Modern Award wages will be almost 4 per cent below what they were in September 2020
    • Despite increases in the minimum wage over the past 2 years above inflation, inflation fell by a combined 4.5 percentage points.
    • There has been no significant correlation between rises in the minimum wage and inflation since 1990.
    • Raising wages by 5.8 to 9.2 per cent this year would offset both recent inflation and restore real wages for award-covered workers to the pre-pandemic trend.
    • Even if fully passed on by employers, higher award wages would have no significant impact on economy-wide prices.
    • A 9.2 per cent increase in award wages could be fully offset, with no impact on prices at all, by a 1.8 per cent reduction in corporate profits – still leaving profits far above historical levels

    “Australia’s lowest paid workers have been hardest hit by inflation over the past 3 years. The price rises of necessities always hurt those on low incomes harder than those on average and high incomes. This analysis shows there is no credible economic reason to deny them a decent pay raise above inflation.” Jericho said.

    “It’s vital the Fair Work Commission ensure that the minimum wage not only keeps up with inflation but also returns the value to the real trend of before the pandemic.”



    The Continuing Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation




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    The continuing irrelevance of minimum wages to future inflation

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  • Budget briefing paper 2025-2026

    Education & Training, Gender at Work, Industry & Sector Policies, Macroeconomics, Social Security & Welfare, Tax, Spending & the Budget, Wages & Entitlements

    Budget briefing paper 2025-2026

    by Greg Jericho, Charlie Joyce, Lisa Heap and Fiona Macdonald

    Authors

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

    Charlie Joyce

    Researcher

    Lisa Heap

    Senior Researcher

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

    The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget.

    As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives.  There is very little in this budget that is new other than the surprise tax cuts, which are welcome given they benefit mostly those on low-incomes. There are continuing investments in some key areas supporting wages growth, where it is sorely needed, and rebuilding important areas of public good. However, there remains much that needs to be done in the next parliament.

    This briefing paper reviews some of the main features of the budget, focusing on those aspects targeting and impacting on workers, working lives and labour markets.

    The establishment of a $1 billion Green Iron Investment Fund to provide capital grants to green iron projects is a significant investment. With $500 million of this fund going to the troubled Whyalla steelworks this investment should ensure ongoing integrity in the management of this vital industrial asset. We believe the government should take a significant ongoing stake in the ownership of the Whyalla steelworks. The $2 billion Green Aluminium Production Credit, to incentivise Australian aluminium smelters to switch to renewable electricity before 2036, is a necessary and welcome policy to assist the transition to a low emissions economy. Unfortunately, the credit is not available until 2028-2029.

    New and ongoing support for students in TAFE and in higher education are important cost-of-living measures while also making education and training more inclusive and accessible. There is some new funding for previously announced initiatives that support workers and wages growth and some funding for new wage increases in the female-dominated, and low-paid, aged care and early childhood education and care sectors; demonstrating the government’s commitment to addressing long-standing undervaluation of feminised care occupations. Continuing government support will be needed as the current Fair Work Commission review of awards to address undervaluation progresses.

    Other reforms in ECEC, along with previously announced changes to paid parental leave and carer payments, provide welcome, but belated, support for working parents and carers. It is disappointing to see that the opportunity has been missed to raise Job Seeker and Youth Allowances from their grossly inadequate levels.



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  • Life Savers Without Life Savings

    Labour Standards & Workers’ Rights, Retirement, Wages & Entitlements

    Life Savers Without Life Savings

    Early retirement and superannuation for firefighters and paramedics
    by Jack Thrower

    Author

    Jack Thrower

    Senior Economist

    Firefighters and paramedics save lives, protect us from the ravages of fire, and ensure the sick and injured receive the medical treatment they need. However, after a working life protecting others, these emergency workers face substantial risk of having inadequate retirement incomes.

    Firefighters and paramedics are regularly compelled to retire early due to particular barriers to working beyond the age of 60. Workers in these intense and challenging roles should have access to early retirement options. However, early retirement means fewer years for superannuation to grow and more years in retirement drawing on superannuation.

    The possibility of superannuation running out is significant even under relatively optimistic assumptions.

    This paper provides simulations of retirement income trajectories for firefighters and paramedics under a range of assumptions. For firefighters, these show, under relatively optimistic assumptions, an early-retiring single firefighter can expect their superannuation to run out six years before male life expectancy, nine years before female life expectancy, and 15 years earlier than for a regular retiree (retiring at 67). Under alternative scenarios, incorporating plausible risks, an early-retiring firefighter can expect their superannuation to run out 15 or more years before life expectancy.

    For paramedics, the challenges are similar and severe. Our simulations indicate that, even under optimistic assumptions, an early-retiring single paramedic can expect their superannuation to run out seven years before male life expectancy, ten years before female life expectancy, and 14 years earlier than for a regular retiree. Considering plausible risks, an early-retiring paramedic’s superannuation could run out 15 or more years before life expectancy.

    To extend superannuation longevity through to the age of their expected lifespan an early-retiring firefighter or paramedic would need to reduce their annual living expenses by 18.5%.

    Given the challenges of continuing their work in these intense roles past age 60, it is unacceptable that retired firefighters and paramedics should have either significantly reduced living standards or risk running out of superannuation in retirement.

    Among the range of potential policy responses considered in this paper, one response with promise is to increase employer superannuation contributions for emergency responders and supplement this with a one-time special superannuation contribution for workers already approaching retirement.



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  • Submission to Industrial Relations Victoria Inquiry on Restricting Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) in Workplace Sexual Harassment Cases

    Employment & Unemployment, Gender at Work, Labour Standards & Workers’ Rights, Wages & Entitlements

    Submission to Industrial Relations Victoria Inquiry on Restricting Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) in Workplace Sexual Harassment Cases

    by Lisa Heap and David Peetz

    Authors

    Lisa Heap

    Senior Researcher

    David Peetz

    Laurie Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow

    It is generally reported that NDAs can benefit victim-survivors by providing anonymity and privacy where that is the victim-survivor’s choice. However, it is also reported that power imbalances between victim-survivors on the one hand and perpetrators and employers/organisation on the other have left workers feeling they had little choice but to sign NDAs.

    NDAs have had the impact of silencing victim-survivors, disguising the actions of perpetrators and covering up the prevalence of sexual harassment and other forms of gender-based violence and harassment within organisations. At times, this has enabled harassers to remain in the same workplace or move within industries and continue to engage in sexual harassment.

    The focus of this submission is on the issues of transparency associated with NDAs and the impact of these agreements on public interest concerns regarding the prevention of sexual harassment and other forms of gender-based violence and harassment at work. We believe that greater transparency regarding the practices associated with settling sexual harassment claims will lead to greater accountability. This accountability should be supported by legislative reforms that mandate minimum conditions such as those set out in this submission.



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  • Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint

    Wages & Entitlements

    Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint

    Unpacking South Australia’s Economic and Fiscal Advantages in the Shadow of Public Sector Pay Erosion
    by Jack Thrower

    Author

    Jack Thrower

    Senior Economist

    New report contrasts South Australia’s economic progress with continued public sector wage restraint

    By many measures, South Australia has enjoyed the strongest economy of any state in Australia. Its economic growth has been faster in recent years than any state – and in per capita terms, its prosperity has improved twice as fast as the national average. It enjoys a stable, diversified economic base: reflecting a virtuous combination of strong business investment, exports, household consumption, and government spending (both on current services and on capital investment). The state’s labour market has been operating at or near record-low levels of unemployment and underutilization.

    Unfortunately, this economic progress has not been reflected in improvements in state-funded public services in South Australia. The proportionate share of the economy contributed by state-funded services and infrastructure investments has been declining since before the pandemic (and is now lower as a share of the state’s economy than any other state). State public sector workers have borne the burnt of this restraint: their wages have lagged far behind inflation, resulting in a painful real wage cut for state employees.

    In a new research report, Economist Jack Thrower shows that real wages for state public servants in South Australia have declined by as much as 10% since 2019. This represents a one-tenth reduction in the real purchasing power of their salaries, imposing severe financial stress on tens of thousands of households – and undermining consumer spending and economic growth.

    The report also confirms that South Australia possesses abundant fiscal capacity to repair this damage to real compensation for public sector workers. The state government’s core revenues are growing much faster than core expenses, and the budget is projected to return to surplus this year – faster than any other state other than Western Australia. Rebuilding public servant wages to catch up to past inflation should be a vital priority for the state government.

    Please read the full report, Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint: Unpacking South Australia’s Economic and Fiscal Advantages in the Shadow of Public Sector Pay Erosion, by Jack Thrower.

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