Author: Jim Stanford

  • NSW Workers’ Compensation System has Ample Resources to Maintain Benefits

    NSW Workers’ Compensation System has Ample Resources to Maintain Benefits

    by Jim Stanford

    The workers’ compensation system in NSW has been dramatically scaled back and restructured since the current state government came to office in 2011.  Real benefit payouts have been cut by 30 percent, with the resulting “savings” passed on to employers in lower premiums (down 40 percent over the past decade).  Yet injured workers continue to bear the real cost of these changes, with benefit cuts (and further premium cuts) still occurring.  Over 4000 workers will have their monthly benefits cancelled entirely later this month.

    The changes were all justified by a supposed fiscal “emergency” that existed in 2011, but that deficit was exaggerated and mostly the result of temporary factors connected to the Global Financial Crisis.  Now the system boats a large and growing accumulated surplus.  Annual financial reports released by the NSW workers insurance scheme last week confirm that the system has ample financial reserves with which to fund the maintenance and improvement of benefits for injured workers.

    See our full 4-page fact sheet on the financial condition of the NSW Workers’ Compensation system for more details on the size of the accumulated surplus, other “hidden” financial cushions, and the extent of the benefit cuts that have been endured by injured workers in the state.



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  • Wage Suppression a Time Bomb in Superannuation System

    Wage Suppression a Time Bomb in Superannuation System

    by Jim Stanford

    The record-slow pace of wage growth in Australia’s economy is not just making it difficult for families to balance their budgets, it also threatens severe long-run damage to Australia’s superannuation retirement system.  That’s the finding of new research from the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute.

    A key factor behind the wage slowdown in Australia has been the aggressive measures implemented by employers in recent years to suppress wage growth, and even to significantly cut wages.  These actions directly undermine superannuation savings, and hence the future retirement incomes of affected workers.

    This new report from the Centre for Future Work simulates the impacts of eight specific wage suppression strategies on workers’ superannuation balances – ranging from temporary wage freezes, to wage caps, to more dramatic actions (such as widespread wage theft in retail and fast food franchises, reduced penalty rates for Sunday work, and the outright termination of enterprise agreements).  In every case, workers’ superannuation payments are negatively affected by the suppression in wages below normal trajectories.  The damage is then compounded over many years by the subsequent loss of investment income on foregone superannuation contributions.

    The report estimates that for a 40-year-old worker experiencing one of the simulated wage-suppressing measures, superannuation balances would be cut by between $30,000 and $270,000 by the time they retire.  Simulated effects depend on the worker’s starting income, gender, inflation, and other factors.

    The worst impacts are experienced in the case of enterprise agreement termination, an increasingly common strategy invoked by employers to cut wages by 40 percent or more.  If allowed to stay in place, wage cuts on this scale produce losses in workers’ superannuation savings that can exceed one-quarter million dollars per person.

    Aggregated across the millions of Australian workers who have experienced one or more of these wage-suppressing strategies, the overall costs of continuing wage suppression on superannuation savings would ultimately amount to many tens of billions of dollars.  Based on plausible estimates of the number of workers affected by wage suppression, the report predicts a total loss of superannuation savings that could reach $100 billion (in real 2017 dollar terms). In essence, employers’ efforts to suppress wage growth have planted a time bomb in Australia’s retirement system

    Government (and hence all Australians) will also bear a significant share of the resulting costs: tax revenues on superannuation contributions and investment income will be lower, and payouts of Age Pension benefits will be significantly larger (since workers’ own superannuation incomes will be reduced).  The report estimates the damage to government budgets at between $31 and $37 billion (in real 2017 dollar terms) if these wage suppression measures are allowed to stand.

    This report was commissioned by the Transportation Workers Union.



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  • June GDP Numbers Confirm Lopsided Economy

    June GDP Numbers Confirm Lopsided Economy

    by Jim Stanford

    This week the ABS released new GDP data, covering the June quarter, which confirm the continuing structural shift away labour toward capital in the distribution of income.

    We have prepared a short briefing note, contrasting the strong growth in corporate profits over the past year with the stagnation of labour incomes. 

    Workers simply do not have the bargaining power to demand and win wage increases that reflect steady productivity growth.  This reflects the erosion of the structures and regulations that once supported wages (including minimum wages, awards, and collective bargaining).  Those who advise workers to simply be patient, wage gains will come as a result of normal supply-and-demand forces, are ignoring this fundamental structural change in Australia’s economy.



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  • Economic Impacts of Reductions In Penalty Rates for Sunday & Holiday Work

    Economic Impacts of Reductions In Penalty Rates for Sunday & Holiday Work

    by Jim Stanford

    Our Centre has conducted considerable research into the impacts of the Fair Work Commission’s decision to substantially reduce penalty rates for Sunday and holiday for workers under the terms of the Modern Awards covering four sectors of the economy: fast food, retail, hospitality, and pharmacy. Penalties for Sunday work will be reduced by up to half; penalties will also be reduced for working on public holidays.

    The workforce employed in these predominantly low-wage service sectors already experiences several dimensions of precarious and insecure work arrangements, including a heavy incidence of part-time work, casual work, and irregular hours. The income derived from penalty rates makes an important contribution to the incomes of these workers – who already struggle with balancing their personal and household budgets given these generally irregular work arrangements. Reductions in weekend income will make matters worse for a group which is already struggling. This workforce includes a disproportionate share of relatively disadvantaged populations, including women, young workers, and immigrant workers.



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  • Labour Share of Australian GDP Hits All-Time Record Low

    Labour Share of Australian GDP Hits All-Time Record Low

    by Jim Stanford

    Amidst increasing concerns among economists and budget forecasters about the historic stagnation of Australian wages, the latest GDP statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics have confirmed that the proportion of national economic output that is paid to workers has reached an all-time low.



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  • Penalty Rates, Minimum Wages, and Purchasing Power

    Penalty Rates, Minimum Wages, and Purchasing Power

    by Jim Stanford

    The Fair Work Commission released two major decisions this week: its order regarding the timing for the implementation of reductions in penalty rates for Sunday and public holiday work in four major retail and hospitality awards, followed by its annual review of the general minimum wage. Both decisions will take effect on July 1. It is interesting to review the combined impact that the two decisions will have on the wages of workers in sectors affected by the penalty rates decision. In particular, does the Fair Work Commission’s decision to phase those cuts in over two or three years somehow protect the workers who will now receive lower wages for work on Sundays and holidays? Our previous research suggested this was not possible; we can re-examine that question in light of the Fair Work Commission’s two actual decisions.



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  • Of Levies, Profits, and Backstops: The Bank Tax in Context

    Of Levies, Profits, and Backstops: The Bank Tax in Context

    by Jim Stanford

    The Australian government’s surprising decision to impose a new tax targeted precisely at the biggest financial institutions in the country continues to generate public debate.  We have reviewed the structure, likely effects, and economic and regulatory context of the proposed 0.06% levy on selected liabilities of the 5 largest financial institutions in Australia.

    The loud (but ultimately token) complaints of the banks about this measure cannot be taken too seriously.  It represents a tiny share of their assets (0.03%), gross revenue (well under 1%), and before-tax profits (around 2%).  It offsets only a small share of the benefit these same institutions receive from the public guarantee of their operations.  The banks consistently earn profit margins that are far larger than normal, thanks to government protection and their dominant market position.  Most importantly, the banks will get back two to three times as much in savings from the same Coalition government’s promise to cut their company income tax rate by 5 percentage points, as it will pay in the new levy.  Little wonder, then, that the banks are not complaining too vociferously.

    The bank levy fits very uncomfortably with the Coalition government’s usual insistence on enriching business (not taxing it).  But it certainly opens a political door for progressives to demand other policy changes to make businesses, including in other sectors, pay a fair share toward the maintenance of the society which allows them to make such profits.



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  • Weekend Work and Penalty Pay in 108 Industries

    Weekend Work and Penalty Pay in 108 Industries

    by Jim Stanford

    As Australians debate the Fair Work Commission’ decision to reduce penalty rates for retail and hospitality workers, the Centre for Future Work has published new research on the prevalence of weekend work in other sectors of Australia’s economy – and the macroeconomic importance of extra income generated by weekend penalty pay.

    The analysis is based on detailed new data on employment on Saturdays and Sundays in 108 different Australian industries.  It finds that weekend work is common in almost all sectors of the economy: with an average of 2.75 million Australian employees on the job on a typical weekend.  The extra income generated by penalty rates and related provisions for weekend work is estimated to add over $14 billion per year to the pay packets of weekend workers.

    So while the retail and hospitality sector may be the most visible examples of weekend work, the practice extends far beyond those two sectors.  And if reductions in penalty rates are eventually applied in other sectors of the economy, as seems likely, the economic impact on Australian workers will be severe.

    Legal experts have suggested that the same arguments invoked to justify the reduction in penalty rates for retail and hospitality workers will be used to support similar demands in other sectors, and employers in other sectors have already begun to argue that their penalty rates should be cut, too.

    Penalty rates for Sunday work were estimated to supplement employees’ incomes by $8.5 billion per year, while penalties for working on Saturdays added another $5.5 billion.  This estimate includes the direct penalty rates paid to workers covered under the Modern Award system, but also the income supplements indirectly received by workers under enterprise agreements and individual contracts (whose terms must match or exceed the minimums specified in the relevant awards).

    In the context of Australia’s record-slow pace of wages growth, income generated by penalty rates takes on added macroeconomic importance – in addition to its traditional function as compensation for the inconvenience and hardship of working on weekends.  Indeed, at current rates of wage growth, it would take five years of regular wage increases for aggregate labour income in the economy to regain the loss if weekend penalties were abolished altogether.



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  • A “Transition” to Nowhere

    A “Transition” to Nowhere

    by Jim Stanford

    Government and business leaders have proposed a range of possible “transition” mechanisms to ease the economic hardship, and defuse political anger, following the Fair Work Commission’s decision to cut penalty rates for work on Sundays and public holidays in the retail and hospitality industries.  This briefing note critically reviews several of these proposals. 

    Whether they are motivated by sincere concern for affected workers, or by more cynical interest in managing a challenging political issue, proposals for “transition” and “adjustment” cannot alter the ultimate regressive effects of the Fair Work Commission’s decision.



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  • Women’s Wages and the Penalty Rate Cut

    Women’s Wages and the Penalty Rate Cut

    by Jim Stanford

    Today is International Women’s Day, a time to reflect on the continued inequality faced by women — including in the world of work.  Traditional measures of the “gender pay gap” indicate that women earn around 17 percent less than men, in ordinary pay in equivalent full-time positions.  But the situation is worse than that, because of women’s disproportionate concentration in part-time work.  Including part-time workers, women now earn exactly one-third less than men.

    The Fair Work Commission’s announcement of coming reductions in penalty rates for Sunday and holiday work (of up to 50 percentage points of base wage) in the retail and hospitality sectors will clearly (if implemented) exacerbate the gender inequality in earnings.

    After all, the retail and hospitality sectors are among the biggest employers of part-time workers, very often in casual and irregular positions.  Women make up most of the workforce in both sectors, and they occupy an even larger share of part-time positions: 70 percent of women in food and beverage services, and 60 percent of women in retail, are in part-time jobs.  Most of the workers whose Sunday wages will be cut are women — and they were already among the lowest-earning workers in the entire labour force.

    If this decision was a “gift” to workers from the FWC (as some politicians have described it), wrapped up and delivered just in time for International Women’s Day, women should definitely send it back.



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