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Tag: David Peetz

  • New laws for ‘employee-like’ gig workers are good but far from perfect

    New laws for ‘employee-like’ gig workers are good but far from perfect

    by Fiona Macdonald

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

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    The Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke has described proposed new laws to regulate digital platform work as building a ramp with employees at the top, independent contractors at the bottom, and gig platform workers halfway up.

    The new laws will allow the Fair Work Commission to set minimum standards for ‘employee-like workers’ on digital platforms. They are a key part of reforms in the government’s Closing the Loopholes workplace relations bill introduced into parliament this week, and are part of a commitment made before the 2022 election.

    So, what will being halfway up the ramp mean for ‘employee-like’ platform workers? Under the changes, minimum standards can now be set for platform workers, including rideshare drivers, food delivery workers and care workers. Up until now, as independent contractors, digital platform workers have had very few rights, including no rights to minimum pay rates.

    With the changes, the Fair Work Commission will be able to set minimum standards for workers concerning payment terms, deductions, working time, record-keeping, insurance, consultation, representation, delegates’ rights and cost recovery and other matters.

    Other provisions in the legislation are designed to protect workers from being unfairly deactivated from platforms, which is equivalent to being unfairly dismissed, and allow collective agreements for platform workers where platform operators agree.

    The laws will apply only to ‘employee-like’ platform workers, meaning workers who are low-paid (compared to what they would be paid under an award), have low bargaining power and/or have low control over their work.

    There are some restrictions on the standards the Fair Work Commission can set for platform workers. Minimum standards cannot be set concerning overtime rates or rostering arrangements. Nor can the Commission use its standard-setting powers to turn a platform worker into an employee.

    So, ‘employee-like’ platform workers will not have all the minimum standards and rights that employees have. However, halfway up the ramp, they will be much better placed than they were with the minimal rights of independent contractors.

    Overall, these changes are very positive for platform workers and should prevent exploitation of vulnerable workers. However, the reforms stop short of responding to longstanding calls for platform workers, including rideshare, food delivery and care workers, to be treated as employees, and for platform operators to be treated as employers, an approach that has recently been agreed by the 32 member countries of the European Union.

    The proposed reforms in the Closing Loopholes bill don’t go as far as aiming to ensure that how a person is employed can’t leave them without the rights and standards most comparable workers enjoy at work. It leaves platform workers halfway up the ramp in a new worker category with lesser rights than employees.

    The creation of this new category of ‘employee-like’ worker does open up the possibility that some employers may seek to reform their workforces and business models to engage workers who are in the new cheaper worker category, in place of employees. Internationally, where a third category of worker has been created by governments in order to provide protections for low-paid independent contractors, there has been some substitution of employees for workers with less favourable conditions.

    The Closing the Loopholes approach to platform workers also suggests we need to think harder about how to support better flexibility at work.

    The platform work reforms appear to be built on an assumption it is ok for workers who need or want flexibility to have lesser standards and fewer rights at work because of this. Most platform workers value the flexibility they have in their jobs. But that does not mean they should have to trade off rights and standards. Flexibility is not a benefit that accrues only to workers. Consumers and platform operators want flexible services too.

    Originally published in The New Daily 8 September 2023


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  • The weak economy shows the Reserve Bank is not threading the needle

    The weak economy shows the Reserve Bank is not threading the needle

    by Greg Jericho

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

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    We have now had two consecutive quarters of GDP per capita falling – hardly the soft landing the RBA wants.

    The latest June quarter National Accounts released yesterday showed that without the increase in population, Australia’s economy would have shrunk for two consecutive quarters. This, as Policy Director, Greg Jericho writes in his Guardian Australia column, reveals just how weak our economy is, and how massively households have been hit by the 400 basis points rise in the cash rate.

    The Reserve Bank has talked about trying to thread the needle of lowering inflation and delivering a soft landing. But with GDP per capita falling and real household disposable income per capita now 5% below where it was a year ago, it is becoming harder to suggest the RBA has achieved its aim.

    Even when including population growth GDP only rose at all because of government spending and investment. The private sector is struggling as companies run down their inventories rather than build up supplies in the hopes of increased sales in the months to come.

    The household savings ratio is now as low as it has been since the GFC as households do what they can to pay the costs of essential items and reduce their purchase of discretionary goods and services.

    The Reserve Bank sought to dampen demand from a misguided view that demand was driving inflation. Instead, we know that inflation has largely been driven by international prices and costs and from companies taking advantage of the situation to increase their profits.

    Rather than focus purely on inflation the RBA and the government now need to be most wary of rises in unemployment. We are not in a recession yet, but should the economy continue to fail to grow aside from population unemployment will inevitably rise, and the cost of the RBA’s strategy will be felt even more so by households across the country.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • Australia’s emissions are rising at a time they need to fall quickly

    Australia’s emissions are rising at a time they need to fall quickly

    by Greg Jericho in The Guardian

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

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    Originally published in The Guardian on August 31, 2023

    The latest quarterly greenhouse gas emissions survey shows that Australia is heading in the wrong direction – and that needs calling out.

    The latest Quarterly Greenhouse Gas Emissions data came and went last Friday with little coverage. As Policy Director, Greg Jericho writes in his Guardian Australia column this meant that much of the terrible news was missed.

    In the past year, Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions have increased with the rise in transport emissions undoing any of the good that comes from falling emissions out of the electricity sector. At a time when we should be on a clear path to reducing emissions by at least 43% below the 2005 level by 2030, we are heading in the opposite direction.

    The figures also highlight the weakness of our 2030 target. The only reason we are even halfway to achieving that cut is because Australia includes land use in its calculations. Without including the faux cuts in emissions that come from using 2005 and the massive land-clearing that occurred that year as a baseline, Australia’s emissions would be just 1.6% below 2005 levels.

    Next week the June quarter GDP figures will be released.  We know exactly when they will be released and they will receive massive coverage, including a press conference by the Treasurer soon after 11:30am on Wednesday. By contrast, the quarterly greenhouse gas emissions data is released at random times with now warning and without any minister fronting media to discuss, explain and defend the government’s policies.

    We need to treat the greenhouse gas emissions release with the same level of attention we give to GDP, and we need to demand what the government is doing to ensure in 3 months time with the next release the figures will show a fall, rather than a rise.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • For most workers, wages are still failing to keep up with inflation

    For most workers, wages are still failing to keep up with inflation

    by Greg Jericho in The Guardian

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

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    Originally published in The Guardian on August 17, 2023

    While overall wages grew in line with inflation in the June quarter for workers in most industries real wages are still going backwards.

    The best news from the June quarter wage price index is that average wages rose 0.8% – the same as inflation. This means that after 11 consecutive quarters, real wages have finally stopped falling.

    That is the good news, but as Policy Director, Greg Jericho noted in his Guardian Australia column, for most workers real-wages kept falling. Only good wage growth in construction, mining, transport and warehousing, and the utility industries enabled the overall growth to be equal with inflation. For workers in all other industries, real wages kept falling.

    And for all workers, real wages in the past year have fallen sharply and are around 5.4% below where they were before the pandemic.

    These latest figures only serve to reinforce that wages are not driving inflation and there is no sign at all of a wages breakout. Indeed, annual wage growth fell in the June quarter to 3.6% from 3.7%.

    It highlights that we do not need unemployment to rise to 4.5% in order for inflation to get under the RBA’s 3% target ceiling. The current rate is more than consistent with long-term inflation of between 2% and 3%. Any further efforts to raise unemployment by increased interest rates would only hurt workers and households for no benefit.


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  • We need more than a definition change to fix Australia’s culture of permanent ‘casual’ work

    We need more than a definition change to fix Australia’s culture of permanent ‘casual’ work

    by David Peetz in The Conversation

    David Peetz

    Laurie Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow

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    Originally published in The Conversation on July 31, 2023

    The surprising thing about the Albanese government’s announced reforms to “casual” employment is not that they’re happening.

    It’s that employer advocates are getting so excited about them, despite the small number of people they will affect and the small impact they will have.

    That’s not to say the changes aren’t needed. Rather, true reform of the “casual” employment system, of which this is just a first but important step, has a lot further to go to resolve the “casual problem”.

    What is the ‘casual problem’?

    This problem is that most “casual” workers aren’t really casual at all — as shown by analysis that I and colleague Robyn May did, using unpublished data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

    The premise for hiring them is that the work is intermittent, short-term and unpredictable. But, as you can see from the chart, the last time the ABS collected these data, a majority of “casuals” worked regular hours.

    Almost 60% of “casuals” had been in the job for more than a year. About 80% expected to still be there in a year’s time.

    Only 6% of “casuals” (1.5% of employees) worked varying hours (or were on standby), had been with their employer for a short time, and expected to be there for a short time.

    Even now, some “casuals” have been doing the same “casual” work for over 20 years.

    Permanent ‘casuals’

    All this has led to a class of “permanent casuals” – a nonsense term. They should more accurately be called “permanently insecure”.

    The one thing “casuals” have in common is they’re not entitled to sick leave or annual leave, and they are in a precarious employment situation. Their contract of employment only lasts till the end of their work day.

    That means they have much less power than other workers. So little power, in fact, that barely half of them even get the casual loading they are meant to be paid in compensation for not receiving other entitlements.

    On average, low-paid “casuals” get less pay than equivalent permanent workers, despite the loading.

    Changing legal definitions

    Not many “casuals” have been brave enough to challenge this exploitative relationship. But when they did a few years ago, Australia’s courts agreed permanent casual work was nonsensical.

    To be a “casual worker”, there had to be no promise of ongoing employment. A court would judge this not just by what was in the formal contract of employment but also by what the employer actually did. If they kept hiring you, week after week, on a predictable roster, you weren’t casual.

    In 2018, mine worker Paul Skene challenged his classification as a casual worker, arguing he had done pretty much the same work, with a few changes along the way, for five years.

    The Federal Court agreed he wasn’t a casual employee and should be back-paid annual leave. Another mine worker, Robert Rossato, had a similar victory in 2020.

    Employer organisations were “outraged” by the “billions” in back pay they could be forced to pay for having misclassified ongoing workers as casuals. They lobbied the Morrison government to amend the law, and challenged the rulings in the High Court.

    The Morrison government changed the law in early 2021, to give primacy to the written contract, ignore employer behaviour, and protect employers from back-pay claims.

    Later that year the High Court overturned the Federal Court decisions, ruling it was the written employment contract that mattered. If that was worded a certain way, you couldn’t test whether a worker was “casual” by whether the employer treated them that way afterwards.

    Labor promised to overturn these interpretations, and that’s what this proposal does.

    What will the legislation change?

    The details of the government’s plan is still not clear, but it is likely it will seek to amend the Fair Work Act to revert to something close to the pre-2020 definition of casual work, with a procedural twist.

    It will again be possible to judge whether an employee is “casual” based on employer behaviour. And an employee who repeatedly works a similar roster can, after six months, demand “permanency” – meaning rights to sick leave, annual leave, and better protection against arbitrary sacking.

    The twist: until they demanded “permanency” they won’t be entitled to any leave. So employers will be protected against claims for back pay.

    Theoretically this could affect hundreds of thousands of “casual” workers. In reality, it will likely help far fewer.

    Suppose you’re a “casual” labour hire worker in mining. You can tell what time you’ll start work on the first Friday next June. You go to your employer — the labour hire company — and say: “Make me permanent.” The labour hire company says: “We can’t. You might not have a job tomorrow.”

    And indeed, now that you’ve asked, maybe you won’t have a job. So would you really ask?

    It will depend critically on the protections offered to workers who ask to convert, and how credible they are to workers.

    Most people only expect a few people to make the demand. Workplace relations minister Tony Burke says he believes only a “very small proportion” of “casuals” working regular shifts will do so.

    Part of that reluctance will be fear of the consequences, and part of it will be that many casuals rely on their casual loading. About half of “casuals” are on the award minimum rate, compared with 15% of “permanent” full-time workers. Most cannot afford to “choose” to trade the money for holidays and other entitlements.

    If you’re not getting the casual loading, you’ve got nothing to lose — except your job. If the power imbalance means you don’t get the loading, you won’t fancy your chances.

    So, it will just work for a small number or workers – though it’s likely to be very important to them.

    More needs to be done

    In short, this is a good step but more needs to be done.

    In most other wealthy countries all workers – including temporary workers – are entitled to annual leave. That’s not the case in Australia, because of the “casual” ruse. These laws will not change that.

    There should be universal leave entitlements. Sure, there needs to be a loading where work is unpredictable, and hence so short-term that leave entitlements would not be practical.

    But everyone else should get annual and sick leave, and minimum award wages should be high enough that low-wage workers don’t have to rely on the casual loading to get by.

    The challenge should be about how we transition to that situation.


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    “Permanent Casuals,” and Other Oxymorons

    by Jim Stanford

    Recent legal decisions are starting to challenge the right of employers to deploy workers in “casual” positions on an essentially permanent basis. For example, the Federal Court recently ruled that a labour-hire mine driver who worked regular shifts for years was still entitled to annual leave, even though he was supposedly hired as a “casual.” This decision has alarmed business lobbyists who reject any limit on their ability to deploy casual labour, while avoiding traditional entitlements (like sick pay, annual leave, severance rights, and more). For them, a “casual worker” is anyone who they deem to be casual; but that open door obviously violates the intent of Australia’s rules regarding casual loading.

  • Inflation is falling so let’s make sure we don’t let unemployment rise

    Inflation is falling so let’s make sure we don’t let unemployment rise

    by Greg Jericho in The Guardian

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

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    Originally published in The Guardian on July 27, 2023

    Inflation is coming down fast so we should now shift our attention to making sure unemployment does not rise

    The latest quarterly CPI figures showed that inflation is falling dramatically and in line with that of other major economies such as the USA and Canada. This, Chief Economist, Greg Jericho writes means we have a prime opportunity to lock in the current level of low unemployment.

    Through the past year of the Reserve Bank raising interest rates, the main justification has been that the economy needs to be slowed in order to bring down demand pressures on inflation.

    What the latest figures reinforce however is that the major pressures have come from the supply side. Australia’s inflation is essentially following the same path as other nations. This is because inflation is slowing largely due to reduced world prices of commodities rather than any response to increasing interest rates.

    Indeed the largest driver of inflation in the June quarter was rental prices, which will have been in part due to investors raising their prices to deal with higher mortgage payments.

    In the past year, unemployment has remained at 3.5% while inflation has gone from 6.7% up to 8.4% and now down to 5.4% (using the monthly measures). The belief that we needed to raise unemployment to 4.5% in order to stop inflation from accelerating is a cruel approach that treats inflation in the wrong way.

    Fortunately, in spite of the RBA’s best efforts, unemployment has not yet risen. This presents Australia with a genuine chance to lock in historically low unemployment as the norm.

    Rather than pursuing higher unemployment in order to reduce inflation the RBA and the government should be pursuing policies that keep unemployment low while also reducing inflationary pressure. This can mean a price cap on essential items such as rents and energy, introducing windfall-profits taxes, and increased public housing investment to reduce housing price surges.

    Interest rates are not the only way to tackle inflation and in an environment where profits are been driven by supply-side issues and profits they are one of the worst ways.

    Full employment needs to be the target, not a mythical “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” that largely justifies higher unemployment and more ho0usyheold living in poverty.


    Related research



    Profit-Price Spiral: The Truth Behind Australia’s Inflation



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  • Hollywood actors showing that unity is strength

    Hollywood actors showing that unity is strength

    by Greg Jericho in The Guardian

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

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    Originally published in The Guardian on July 20, 2023

    When workers are united, and able to collectively bargain, they can win good outcomes

    The Screen Actor’s Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists strike launched last week against Hollywood studios has brought large attention because of the celebrities involved. But as Chief Economist, Greg Jericho, notes in his Guardian Australia column, there are lessons for Australian workers as well.

    For the past 40 years there have been consistent efforts in Australia and other English speaking countries to reduce to power and role of unions in industrial relations. And while we are often told that there are reasons such as a need for greater flexibility to ensure increased productivity, the reality is there has been no evidence that any of the changes to IR laws have produced anything like the productivity that was promised.

    The past decade has seen as much “flexibility” and reduced power for unions as any business group could (and did) desire, and yet productivity levels have plummeted.

    The problem, as the SAG-AFTRA strike makes clear, the reason governments and business groups have agitated against unions and the ability to conduct industrial action is not because of concerns about productivity, but because unions garner better wages for their members and faster wage growth.

    The past decade shows that as the number of days lost to industrial action have fallen, so too has wage growth.

    The Hollywood strike might notionally be about payment for film and productions on streaming services and concerns about AI, but as SAG-AFTRA president Fran Drescher made clear, it is truly about workers demanding respect, and to be honoured for their contribution.

    Australian workers should learn from the strike and see that unity and union membership delivers benefits – and we know this is true, because employers will do anything they can to prevents it happening.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • The key legislation changes that will help workers get a better deal

    The key legislation changes that will help workers get a better deal

    by Fiona Macdonald in The New Daily

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

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    Originally published in The New Daily on July 14, 2023

    In recent years, workers have been held back from demanding better working conditions and pay by a lack of bargaining power.

    However, with recent changes to industrial relations laws, and with unemployment at record low levels, some workers are now in a better position to bargain for better pay and conditions.

    Slow wages growth, low bargaining coverage and high levels of insecure work are good indicators of how workplace power imbalances have stifled prospects for many employees.

    Over the last decade Australia’s wage growth has been at its weakest since the middle of the last century, coverage of workers by enterprise agreements has rapidly eroded, and over a third of workers are now in insecure casual, labour hire or fixed-term jobs.

    Bargaining hobbled

    Despite low unemployment – meaning there are fewer workers available to fill vacancies – employees have not been able to bargain for higher pay and the real value of wages has been declining.

    Industrial relations reforms passed by parliament in late 2022 are designed to restore some balance to the workplace.

    The changes don’t mean there is a massive shift of power to workers but, with the removal of some barriers to bargaining, there should be greater opportunity for employees to gain improvements at work.

    At the present time, the labour market is tight and employers are competing to find and retain workers so they may be prepared to offer higher wages and other benefits.

    Already, unions representing early childhood education and care workers have applied to use a new multi-employer bargaining option – which came into force last month – to seek a pay increase for these low-paid workers.

    While it will be some time before we see any outcomes, there is early evidence that other bargaining reforms are getting workplace bargaining moving after years of decline. Certainly some employers may now be more ready to negotiate enterprise agreements to avoid being roped into multi-employer agreements.

    Other non-bargaining reforms introduced as part of the 2022 Secure Jobs, Better Pay package attracted much less attention than bargaining changes during last year’s debates over the new laws.

    However, these other changes are not insignificant for working conditions.

    The right to flexible work

    More than half of all employees now have new rights to request flexible work, including employees who are parents of children of school age or younger, carers and workers aged 55 or over, those with a disability or people experiencing or supporting someone experiencing family violence.

    Before the flexibility changes, which came into effect in June, some limited flexible work rights already existed. However, now there is much greater onus on employers to show there are reasonable business grounds if they wish to refuse employees’ requests for flexible work.

    While this is no guarantee that all employees can access the flexibility they need, it has potential to be a game-changer in some workplaces through pushing employers to find ways to organise work for greater employee-friendly flexibility.

    Research shows that Australians are some of the most stressed and overworked of all workers worldwide. We know we need better-work life balance.

    Post-pandemic, there is widespread experience of more flexible work arrangements and greater recognition of the benefits of flexible work.

    There is some impetus to lock in more employee-friendly flexibility, and workers are having some success in achieving these changes through collective bargaining.

    Working lives are longer than ever, including as the retirement age has just been increased to 67 years.

    Along with pay increases that stop the decline in the value of wages, bargaining for better work-life balance will continue to be important.


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  • If the unemployment rises to 4.5% who is likely to lose their job?

    If the unemployment rises to 4.5% who is likely to lose their job?

    by Greg Jericho in The Guardian

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

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    Originally published in The Guardian on July 13, 2023

    The RBA is currently targeting a 4.5% unemployment rate, and that is going to hurt young, low skilled and low paid workers,

    The next 12 months ahead look to be a time of rising wages, and rising unemployment. The Reserve Bank is trying to raise unemployment in order to prevent rising wages. It’s target of 4.5% will see around 130,000 to 150,000 more people unemployed than is currently the case.

    Labour market policy director, Greg Jericho, in his Guardian Australia column, examines which workers are likely to be the ones who will lose their jobs.

    In a bitterly ironic point, he notes that these are the same workers whom Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank Michele Bullock recently boasted were the ones who had gained the most from the strong employment growth of the past 18 months:

    people on lower incomes and with less education who have benefited the most from the strong labour market conditions

    More worrying is that the Reserve Bank’s own estimates suggest that the rises in unemployment over the next year will see Australia breach the “sahm Rule” of recession, in which the unemployment rate rises more than 05%pts in a year. Oddly however the RBA’s correspondence on the issue revealed in an FOI disclosure has them suggesting that for Australia the recession trigger is a 0.75% rise.

    Either way, history suggests that when unemployment rises in a year by the amount the RBA is estimating it usually keeps rising.

    The RBA’s own estimates show just how close to a recession the economy is set to go in the next year. It already looks likely to hit workers with low skills and low paid jobs, and if the RBA gets it wrong, it will quickly hit many more of society.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • Bolstered by a biased tax system, house prices keep rising

    Bolstered by a biased tax system, house prices keep rising

    by Greg Jericho in The Guardian

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

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    Originally published in The Guardian on June 15, 2023

    As interest rates rise, the gains from negative gearing increase.

    Despite rising interest rates, the latest figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that Australia’s house prices rebounded in the March quarter of this year. Policy director Greg Jericho writes in his Guardian Australia column that since the beginning of the pandemic property prices around Australia have risen 26% while at the same time average household disposable income has increased just 8%.

    This disparity has massive consequences for affordability. Had for example the median property price in Sydney risen in line with household incomes since June 2020, instead of being $1.15m it would be $954,000 – a $196,000 difference.

    Underlying the strength of the market even in the face of rising interest rates is the fact that Australia’s tax system is biased towards property investors.

    The most recent taxation statistics covering 2020-21 showed for the first time the number of investors recording property net profits was greater than those recording a loss. Such a situation only occurred because of the record low interest rates at the time. We know that the past 12 months will have seen a large spike in the number of people negative gearing their properties and thus not surprisingly housing remains an attractive investment not in spite of rising interest rates, but because of rising interest rates.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages