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Category: Opinion

  • No need for panic over ‘sticky’ inflation: Jericho

    No need for panic over ‘sticky’ inflation: Jericho

    by Greg Jericho

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    Inflation has stopped falling, but there’s no need for a further rate hike, says Greg Jericho.

    Inflation is stubbornly staying above the Reserve Bank’s target, but it’s not because Australian consumers are flush with cash, according to Australia Institute Chief Economist, Greg Jericho.

    In fact, retail spending figures suggest that people are struggling and further suppressing consumer demand by increasing interest rates could have a detrimental effect on the economy, Jericho said on the latest episode of Dollars & Sense.

    “Pretty much since December, inflation has been stuck at that 3.5, 3.6 per cent area.

    “Whereas, before that, it had been coming down fairly steadily.

    “And so, some economists are getting rather panicky about the fact that inflation is ‘sticky’.”

    But that’s not the full picture, Jericho said.

    “What I care about as an economist is: are consumers out there spending like mad? And, as a result shop owners are going ‘wow, I’ve got lines around the block – I can raise prices’.

    “But what we see in the retail spending figures is that we are not buying much at all.

    “That is a real sign that we are not flush with cash, we are not doing well – households are really struggling.”

    While some are calling for the Reserve Bank to take further action, further suppressing consumer demand to get inflation below three per cent isn’t a silver bullet, Jericho said.

    “The Reserve Bank has a target – and it’s an arbitrary target – of trying to keep inflation between two and three per cent.

    “Other countries have different inflation targets.

    “There’s no natural law of economics that says once inflation goes below three per cent things are hunky dory.”

    Dollars & Sense is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • Does leave for menstruation and menopause advance women’s rights and gender equality at work?

    Does leave for menstruation and menopause advance women’s rights and gender equality at work?

    by Lisa Heap

    Lisa Heap

    Senior Researcher

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    As pressure grows for action to establish new work rights, including additional leave, for those who experience menstruation and menopause, the Centre for Future Work’s Senior Researcher, Lisa Heap, canvases the debate about whether these rights will advance gender equality at work.

    There are growing calls for the establishment of new work rights, including additional leave, for those who experience menstruation and menopause*. These biological processes are normal and are experienced by large numbers of workers. Yet their sometimes debilitating effects have been ignored in the framework of workplace rights historically built around men’s experience of life and work.

    Unions have begun surveying their members on the issue and a growing number of unions are seeking new rights in collective agreements, including additional leave, for menstruation, menopause, and reproductive health concerns. The ACTU, Australia’s peak union body, is likely to discuss a policy on reproductive leave (including leave for menopause and menstruation) at its Congress in June 2024. There is also evidence that organisations are moving to include policies on these issues in their HR handbooks. These calls for new rights reflect increasing public awareness and acceptance that biological processes experienced by women should come out of the shadows and from behind closed bathroom doors.

    However, not everyone agrees that seeking additional leave and other workplace rights because of menstruation or menopause is the right way to go. Leading industrial relations academic Marian Baird, whilst being a strong advocate for new rights, has noted that debate on issues such as menstrual leave ‘can be polarising for organisations and for feminists.’ Concerns include that leave and other rights for menstruation and menopause may result in women being targeted as weak or unable to do the job because they are absent from work or that employers will see them as less reliable or more costly to employ. Thus, undermining women’s position at work. Some scholars argue that focusing on leave, and therefore effectively removing the problem from the workplace, means that the problem is being hidden at work.

    There have been long standing debates between feminist theorists about whether the path to gender equality at work is best served by highlighting the similarities between men and women and treating all workers the same – sometimes referred to a formal equality. Or whether there should be accommodation of differences including acknowledging biological differences and the reproductive role that women play in society and ensuring that work rights reflect this. The difficulty we have in Australia, like in many western democratic countries, is the standard of the ideal worker is male so treating everyone the same, effectively means treating them as men.

    It is difficult to ignore that some workers are struggling with the impacts of menstruation and menopause at work. Supports are needed for these workers. Not everyone’s experience is the same but for some menstruation involves severe bleeding, extreme pain, and lethargy. Shame and stigma for some workers may lead to hiding period pain and carrying on with job. This can have both physical and psychological impacts. The effects of the processes associated with menopause may include losses of concentration, difficulty sleeping, headache, fatigue and mood changes. In both cases work based impacts can include perceptions of poor work performance, a loss of confidence for effected workers and using all personal/carers’ leave trying to ‘manage’ the impact of menstruation and menopause. Some workers may need a move to part-time work or even consider leaving paid work as a way of managing.

    The evidence gathered around the work-based impacts of menstruation and menopause establishes the need for further changes in work rights to accommodate the lived experience of women. To ignore this evidence would in effect reinforce men’s experience of work as the norm and the standard around which work rights are framed. Australian public policy and legal frameworks have developed to accommodate some biological processes experienced by women. For example, there are now universal rights around pregnancy, maternity, and breastfeeding and work. Leave and workplace flexibilities accommodating the effects of menstruation and menopause could be the next step in the evolution of these workplace rights.

    Beyond HR policies there are two main ways of establishing work rights – incorporating these rights in workplace laws or bargaining for their inclusion in enterprise agreements. Incorporating leave and other rights to flexible work arrangements in legislation would provide a universal standard and a whole of society approach. Bargaining offers the opportunity to craft boutique solutions considering the needs of the organisation and those of the workforce. The process of bargaining itself helps to educate and explore the issue thus assisting with ‘normalising’ it at work. However, bargaining for ‘equality rights’ of this kind can take time and often requires work-based champions to get and keep the issue on the bargaining agenda.

    In Australia many universal workplace rights have been achieved first through unions bargaining for these at the industry or organisational level and then by unions fighting to have these included in legislation. The achievement of paid leave for those workers experiencing family violence is the most recently high-profile example of this. The progress to gain menstrual and menopause leave, and other associated rights is likely to involve both bargaining for these rights and lobbying for legislative change.

    Leave for menstruation and menopause will advance women’s rights and gender equality at work however, even when these rights exist that won’t be the end of action to make them a reality. Workers will need to be aware of these rights and feel comfortable and confident to use them without fear that they will be treated less favourably for doing so. Establishing the rights either through legislation or bargaining will set the normative standard. Organisations will then have the obligation to create systems processes and cultures that would ensure that workers can, and do, access these rights once they exist.

    *I use the term woman/en to include those who experience menstruation or menopause but who may not identify as a woman.

    **This article originally appeared in The Point the official newspaper of the Independent Education Union Victoria Tasmania


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  • Calls for massive rate hikes and recession are cavalier: Jericho

    Calls for massive rate hikes and recession are cavalier: Jericho

    by Greg Jericho

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    Inflation will remain higher for longer, but a recession is not the solution, says Greg Jericho.

    The Reserve Bank have revised their inflation projections, suggesting that interest rates are going to remain high for longer than many expected.

    This has sent plenty of people into a spin, with media speculating about interest rate armageddon and some economists calling for a recession.

    But with inflation still heading in the right direction, cooler heads must prevail as policymakers navigate the tricky economic climate, Australia Institute Chief Economist Greg Jericho said on the latest episode of Dollars & Sense.

    “[Inflation] is not dropping as fast as people thought because the previous thinking was probably a bit hopeful.

    “Importantly, the long-term trend – where the Reserve Bank thinks inflation is going to go – really wasn’t changed. They still believe it’s going be below three per cent by the end of next year.

    “That was what they were thinking in February – perhaps it’s just not going to be as sharp a drop.”

    But that’s not necessarily a bad thing, Jericho argued – saying inflation’s fall had been roughly mirroring the pattern leading into the 1990s recession.

    “That’s generally not a good thing to try and copy.

    “Inflation, when it comes down, often can have a tendency to come down really fast – and the problem is it doesn’t actually steady and flatten out at the point you want it to.

    “It just keeps going because the economy kind of tanks.”

    Despite the risks, some economists have called for significant interest rate increases – even a small recession.

    “The reality is that you very rarely get what you desire when you call for a ‘little’ recession.

    “Calling for a ‘short recession’ is like calling for a ‘small war’. They don’t stay small, they don’t stay short.

    “How can you be so cavalier with people’s livelihoods?”

    Dollars & Sense is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • Increasing JobSeeker is possible, it’s just a question of priorities

    Increasing JobSeeker is possible, it’s just a question of priorities

    by Greg Jericho

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    The government has the power to make significant and long-awaited improvements to the JobSeeker scheme in this federal budget, but it has to make it a priority, says Greg Jericho.

    The federal government’s hand-picked Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee has called for a significant increase to the JobSeeker unemployment payment, describing the current rate as “seriously inadequate”.

    While the aged pension has increased over time, JobSeeker has stagnated for decades, dragging people without a job well below the poverty line, Australia Institute Chief Economist Greg Jericho said on the latest episode of Dollars & Sense.

    Currently worth less than 70 per cent of the aged pension, JobSeeker payments should be increased to 90 per cent, according to the Committee.

    The significant disparity between the two payments is the result of a policy decision by the Howard government, Jericho explained.

    “What John Howard did was change how [JobSeeker and the aged pension] were indexed,” Jericho said.

    “He linked the aged pension – but not unemployment benefits – to average, full-time, male earnings.

    “In a sense, what [Howard] was saying was, ‘those people on that government benefit, they’re worthy – these people on unemployment benefits, not worthy.

    “We’ve always had people talking about ‘dole bludgers’…[but Howard] made that view government policy.”

    In considering the Committee’s recommendations, the federal government faces a question around where its priorities lie, Jericho said.

    “It’s going to cost around $4.6 billion a year, but this is where it comes back to choices.

    “Josh Frydenberg was quoted as saying, back when they were talking about AUKUS, that everything is affordable if it’s a priority. Julia Gillard made a speech in 2014 where she said budgets are made of choices.

    “If something is a priority, they find the money.”

    Dollars & Sense is available on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • Who’s hurting most from rising interest rates? It’s probably you.

    Who’s hurting most from rising interest rates? It’s probably you.

    by Greg Jericho

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    Soaring house prices, high household debt and the pervasiveness of variable rate home loans mean that Australians bear the brunt of interest rate rises, says Greg Jericho.

    A new report by International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows rising interest rates bite harder in some countries than others – and it’s grim reading for Australian mortgage holders.

    Globally, repayments have become increasingly difficult to meet on the back of rapid rate increases.

    But the new IMF World Economic Outlook report shows that rate rises hurt Australians the most.

    “It mightn’t come us a surprise too many Australians, but we are right at the top – we’re number one,” Australia Institute Chief Economist Greg Jericho said on the latest episode of Dollars & Sense.

    “What it’s saying is that, if interest rates went up – let’s say by one per cent in every advanced economy in the world – Australians would feel that the most.”

    The prevalence of variable home loans in Australia is one of the reasons rate increases are hitting harder, according to the IMF.

    “In Australia, around 85 per cent of people with a mortgage have a variable rate of some kind. That’s actually really unusual,” Jericho said.

    “In the United States, 95 per cent of people with a home loan have a fixed rate mortgage. In the United Kingdom, it’s 85 per cent.

    “If you’ve got a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, you really don’t care what the Reserve Bank does.”

    Other drivers identified by the IMF include high levels of household debt and looser lending guidelines, but Jericho said that soaring house prices also play a big role.

    Since 2005, median house prices have gone up by 86 per cent globally, but Jericho’s analysis shows that prices have gone up 162 per cent in Australia over the same period.

    “So, just a little bit different.

    “I think you can make a pretty good case…that we have some damned expensive houses.

    “Things have really taken a turn for the worse over the past five, 10, 15 years – nearly 20 years really.”

    As for what the Reserve Bank of Australia might do from here, the market is predicting cuts over the next 12 months, but that might be optimistic, according to Jericho.

    “If Australians are hurt more by interest rate rises than elsewhere, it means they also get the benefit of rate cuts more than elsewhere.

    “So the Reserve Bank might be inclined to go, ‘yeah, let’s just wait and see’.”

    Dollars & Sense is available on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.


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  • Video: The Right to Disconnect is NOT Bad for Productivity

    Video: The Right to Disconnect is NOT Bad for Productivity

    by Jim Stanford

    Jim Stanford

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    The Right to Disconnect legislation being passed recently has attracted criticism from Opposition leader Peter Dutton and business groups, who say it’s bad for productivity.

    They may need to learn some basic maths, because they couldn’t be more wrong.

    Centre for Future Work Director Dr Jim Stanford explains.

    Research indicates the average Australian worker performs 280 hours of unpaid overtime per year, equating to more than $130 billion across the labour market.

    The new legislation’s ‘reasonableness’ test still grants employers great scope to contact workers out of hours when it is genuinely necessary.

    Nevertheless, merely affirming that workers don’t need to be on call 24-7, and should be allowed to turn off their devices after work, has sparked loud complaints from old-school guardians of work attitudes.

    Read more in this article: https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/the-big-error-at-heart-of-right-to-disconnect-opposition/


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  • Australia’s “stupid” surplus obsession must end

    Australia’s “stupid” surplus obsession must end

    by Greg Jericho

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    A budget surplus doesn’t mean a government is good at running the economy – we should focus on the choices they make instead, says Greg Jericho.

    Australian governments like to brag about their big budget surpluses — one even slapped it on a mug — but they aren’t all they’re cracked up to be, according to Chief Economist at the Australia Institute, Greg Jericho.

    “I think the discussion about budget surpluses and deficits is quite stupid, to be blunt,” he said on the latest episode of Dollars & Sense.

    The accuracy of budget projections is highly dependent on commodity prices, international economic conditions and other factors outside a government’s control, making them notoriously difficult to get right.

    “It’s a fairly complicated thing, the Australian economy. There are lots of moving parts and they never get it right,” Jericho said.

    “Last year, in the May budget, there were essentially two months to go in the 2022-23 financial year, so you’d think they can’t get the figure that wrong. Treasury estimated that the budget was going to be in surplus by $4 billion.

    “When we got complete figures in September…they found out, no — it wasn’t $4 billion, it was $22 billion!

    “If they can be that wrong with two months to go, think how wrong they can be 12 months ahead, four years ahead.”

    Jericho said it’s “absurd” to suggest a surplus or deficit alone reveals if a government is managing the economy effectively.

    “It started with Paul Keating and then Peter Costello really set fire to it because he was Treasurer during a massive mining boom, where there were masses of tax revenue coming in, making it very easy to be in a surplus.

    “He wanted to be able to sell that as being really good and he was this great economic manager.”

    But like household debt, a national deficit can be good if used to invest in the future, Jericho argued.

    “What if that deficit was used to build a hospital?

    “Our children, and our children’s children, are going to be using that hospital — would you prefer they didn’t build it?

    It’s not just about expenditure, he said, because budgets also reflect a government’s priorities in how it raises revenue.

    “Let’s say we raised $5 billion more from the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax — that means we could reduce the tax on individuals by $5 billion with no change in the budget balance.

    “Or we could spend that money on health or education.

    “Budgets are very much about choices.”

    Dollars & Sense is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.


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    Commonwealth Budget 2025-2026: Our analysis

    by Fiona Macdonald

    The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget, focusing on key areas for workers, working lives, and labour markets. As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives. There is

    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • “It’s a scare campaign”: award wage rise won’t trigger inflation spiral

    “It’s a scare campaign”: award wage rise won’t trigger inflation spiral

    by Greg Jericho

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    With unions calling for a five per cent increase to award wages, business groups are crying wolf over the proposal’s impact on inflation and unemployment, says Greg Jericho.

    The call from the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) comes after the Fair Work Commission announced a 23 per cent pay increase for aged care workers, a decision Jericho – Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work –  said will bring the award up to around $63,000 per year.

    “It’s incredibly vital work, it’s a growing sector and there are massive shortages,” he said on the latest episode of the Dollars & Sense podcast.

    “One of the reasons there are these shortages is that [workers] are paid bugger all.”

    “And while I still think they are chronically underpaid, especially for how important the role is…at least there is some good news.”

    Business groups and commentators have argued that the ACTU’s proposal will send inflation and unemployment soaring, but Jericho said those claims don’t stack up.

    “Last year, when we had the award go up by 5.75 per cent and the minimum wage go up by 8.6 per cent – again we’re told this is the end of times.

    “The most recent unemployment figures, as we saw last week? They fell!”

    Far from being a sign of runaway wage growth, Jericho’s analysis shows that a five per cent increase would only get real wages back to where they were in 2020.

    The two per cent increase proposed by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) would not only leave workers on an award well short of that mark, but also falling further behind inflation, which was 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to February.

    “Wages should go up more than inflation. Wages should go up more than prices,” said Jericho.

    “If you can’t buy more with your wage than you did a year ago then your living standards haven’t gone up.”

    While increasing wages can theoretically lead to greater demand and rising inflation, the reality is that, for decades, wage increases in Australia haven’t been anywhere near enough to set off inflation, he said.

    Australia Institute research found that, between 2019 and 2022, corporate profits contributed far more than wage rises to the rapid rise in inflation.

    “I can recall then-Senator Eric Abetz…during the Rudd-Gillard years saying we were about to have a wages breakout and then we went on a decade-long run of ever lower wages.

    “It’s a scare campaign.”

    Dollars & Sense is available on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.


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  • The RBA should keep its finger off the interest rate trigger

    The RBA should keep its finger off the interest rate trigger

    by Greg Jericho

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    With unemployment tumbling in February, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should resist the urge to raise interest rates, says Australia Institute Chief Economist Greg Jericho.

    Unemployment fell dramatically in February, defying the expectations of many policymakers and economists.

    While the RBA has genuinely seen low unemployment as a key driver of inflation, Jericho said their belief is misguided.

    “The Reserve Bank, we know, has this belief that unemployment needs to rise to lower inflation,” he said on the latest episode of the Dollars & Sense podcast.

    “We here at the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work have been saying, ‘no, that’s completely wrong’.

    “Inflation has not been rising and falling because there’s more or less unemployment in the system – it was because of what has been happening on the supply side, what’s happening with corporate profits.”

    This view was supported by a 2023 report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which found that high corporate profits was a more significant factor in driving inflation after the Covid-19 pandemic than wages.

    “Stop trying to put people out of work just to get inflation down. It’s a stupid thing to do,” said Jericho.

    “And, actually, these figures kind of confirm that.

    “Inflation has been slowing and what have we seen? Unemployment drop!”

    The drop in the seasonally adjusted jobless rate, from 4.1 to 3.7 per cent, means roughly 116,000 additional Australians were in work in February. This represents the single biggest improvement since the early 2000s, outside the core years of the pandemic.

    The next interest rate decision will be handed down by the RBA on 7 May.

    Dollars & Sense is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • Fixing the work and care crisis means tackling insecure and unpredictable work

    Fixing the work and care crisis means tackling insecure and unpredictable work

    by Fiona Macdonald in The New Daily

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

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    Originally published in The New Daily on March 8, 2024

    The Fair Work Commission is examining how to reduce insecurity and unpredictability in part-time and casual work to help employees better balance work and care.

    The Commission is reviewing modern awards that set out terms and conditions of employment for many working Australians to consider how workplace relations settings in awards impact on work and care. This follows a 2023 finding by the Senate Select Committee Inquiry into Work and Care last year that there is a “work and care crisis”.

    The Select Committee’s final report noted “too many Australians are working in conditions that lack predictable hours and thus pay”, making it difficult to manage their care responsibilities with paid work.

    Insufficient income to meet family needs, inability to plan, inability to access suitable care, high stress levels and lack of time for life are some of the negative impacts of insecure and unpredictable part-time and casual work for workers with caring responsibilities.

    Women are overrepresented in part-time and casual jobs, as they continue to provide most unpaid care for children, elderly parents, and sick or disabled family members. Among women, casual employment is most common among 15 to 34 year-olds, while for men it is highest among those aged 65 years and older. Women’s casual employment is linked to child-rearing.

    Pay rates in casual jobs are often lower than for employees in equivalent permanent part-time and full-time jobs, despite casual loadings. Underemployment is also high and unpredictable working hours are common among casual and part-time employees, including in services sectors such as retail and care. In both sectors, insecure casual jobs provide workers with very little control over their work hours. Lack of control over hours is often a feature of permanent part-time jobs as well as casual jobs

    In a job with unpredictable hours it can be extremely difficult to organise and manage the costs of care. For example, for parents, uncertainty of working hours and income can make access to reliable and affordable childcare impossible. Unpredictable short-hours rosters can make it barely worth working at all as income may not cover the costs of formal childcare.

    Good quality, secure part-time jobs have long been regarded as essential for greater gender equality in employment, including as part-time jobs can support better sharing of care among men and women. However, the expansion of part-time work in the Australian economy since the 1980s has been an expansion of casual and part-time jobs that are highly insecure, often low-paid and with poorer conditions, protections and entitlements than most full-time jobs.

    It is possible to make casual and part-time jobs more secure and predictable. The Fair Work Commission’s analysis of industrial awards shows that there are many provisions in awards applying to part-time and casual employment that contribute to insecurity and lack of predictability. Award provisions include, for example, short minimum payments periods, broken shifts, poor guarantees around minimum and regular hours of work, little or no payment for travel time between different work locations, little or no notice of roster changes and poor compensation for being on-call.

    Secure work and a living wage are fundamental to good work and care arrangements. Secure work doesn’t just mean ongoing work or protection from unfair dismissal. Secure work entails adequate and predictable work hours, reasonable flexibility of working time, compensation for unsocial hours, safety at work and access to union representation.

    Worker-carers should also have rights to carer’s leave and personal leave, regardless of their employment arrangements. Systems of portable leave entitlements could help all workers manage care and work at all stages of their working lives. These and other leave entitlements would have the benefit of supporting a better sharing of care.

    The Fair Work Commission’s will complete its review in the middle of 2024. It is to be hoped that this leads to improved working conditions for worker carers, enabling men and women to care and work without paying the price through job insecurity.


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