Category: International & Security Affairs

Research branch

  • Jailing climate protestor Violet Coco shows anti-protest laws have gone too far

    Originally published in The Canberra Times on December 11, 2022

    The anti-protest laws that have swept the country are a threat to us all, even if you’ve never attended a protest in your life. Governments are writing and passing laws which authorise companies to legally cause harm to our community and environment, while jailing individuals seeking to stop such harm through non-violent protest.

    The draconian jail sentence handed down to climate protestor Violet Coco is grossly disproportionate and should ring alarm bells for anyone concerned about living in a free and fair democracy.

    Coco was part of a protest that stopped one lane of traffic on the Sydney Harbour Bridge for 28 minutes and she has been sentenced to jail for 15 months and refused bail. Jail is supposed to be a last resort, but this is a harsh sentence that would usually be reserved for breaching an AVO, or for serious and repeated property and theft offences. For comparison, a Canberra man was recently sentenced to 15 months jail for his role in kidnapping, beating and waterboarding another man over a dispute about missing drugs. Violet Coco was peaceful and didn’t physically harm anyone yet received a similar sentence. Are we really content to be a country that doles out prison sentences for the crime of mildly inconveniencing people?

    No matter if you support or oppose their methods, non-violent protest can be an act of community service. Like the pain signals our brain sends us when we are injured – protest is one way we know there is an injury to our community or to our natural environment that needs to be stopped or repaired.

    Draconian anti-protest laws have now been passed in several states including New South Wales, Victoria and more recently Tasmania. The laws have passed with the support of both the Labor and Liberal parties and are mainly targeted at environmental and climate protestors, though you can bet that governments won’t stop with environmental protestors.

    The purpose of these anti-protest laws is not to protect the community, but to limit the right to protest and to protect business interests above democratic interests. In its submission on Tasmania’s new anti-protest laws, the Australia Institute Tasmania, said: “[The law] continues to preference businesses’ ability to carry out work over the right of people to protest by giving broad powers to police to arrest peaceful protestors and imposing harsh penalties”.

    Tasmania’s laws could see a community member protesting the destruction of old growth forests on a forestry site face a penalty of over $13,000 or two years in prison. Obstructing a business while trespassing risks one year imprisonment. These are similar penalties to those  who trespass while holding a gun, drug another person or perpetrate aggravated assault. Under Tasmania’s new laws, holding a placard will be treated roughly the same as holding a gun.

    We know these laws aren’t passed to protect the interests of the Australian community because while Violet Coco is going to jail for causing a temporary traffic jam, companies that cause real and lasting damage to the environment and the community get away virtually scot free.

    For example, no executive from Rio Tinto went to jail for permanently destroying 46,000 years of world history and heritage in the Juukan Gorge rock shelters.. No coal company executive has ever been jailed for helping to cause climate change, which is turbo-charging the extreme weather events wreaking havoc and billions of dollars in damages upon communities across the country every year. Australia has one of the worst extinction rates for mammals, yet for decades we have chosen to exempt native forest logging from our national environmental laws that are supposed to protect threatened species, something the federal Labor government is now seeking to rectify. Companies are routinely authorised by governments to cause harm to community and to our natural environment while individuals are punished for peacefully protesting to stop such harms.

    Often it is governments that impose harms on the community. Until the Freedom Rides of the 1960s, public pools were still segregated in parts of Australia, prohibiting Aboriginal people from swimming with white people. Homosexuality was a crime in Tasmania until 1997 when years of protest resulted in gay law reforms, and let us not forget equal marriage has only been legal for five years. And former Greens Leader Bob Brown was once shot at during protests against logging at Tasmania’s Farmhouse Creek and he was arrested again this year, fighting the same fight to protect Australia’s forests.

    Whether it be the struggle for basic human rights, like the abolition of slavery, women’s suffrage and the fight for equal marriage, or to struggle to protect our natural world from destruction, like the battle to end whaling in the Southern Ocean, or to stop the destruction of the Amazon rainforest—many just causes are radical until they become inevitable.

    The Franklin River blockade saw around 1500 people arrested and 600 jailed, including Bob Brown who spent 19 days in Risdon Prison. But the day after his release in 1983, he was elected as the first Green in Tasmania’s Parliament. The Franklin River flows freely today thanks to those protestors. Australians owe a debt of gratitude to all those protestors who have been willing to risk jail to stand up for what’s right. But just because protestors are willing to risk jail, does not make harsh jail sentences for protests any less draconian or anti-democratic.

    Some people may not agreewith the methods of climate protestors, but causing a traffic jam is hardly a reason to send someone to jail for more than a year. Especially not when climate change is fuelling extreme weather events that are severely impacting Australians across the country. It is imperative that all of us fight to repeal the anti-democratic laws that have been passed by state governments around the country. Because the reality is that the right to peacefully protest is as fundamental to a healthy democracy as free and fair elections.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • The Reserve Bank needs to watch that it doesn’t push the economy off a cliff

    Originally published in The Guardian on December 1, 2022

    For most of this year, the warnings and news about inflation have been one of hope for the best but experience the worst. Predictions of future inflation growth have continually been revised upwards and with it has been the suggestion that interest rates need to keep rising.

    But as Labour Market and Fiscal Policy Director, Greg Jericho, notes in his Guardian Australia column, the latest monthly inflation figures out yesterday suggest that maybe the peak could be lower than anticipated.

    While the monthly figures can be a little erratic, they do closely align with the quarterly “official” CPI figures and in October the ABS estimates that annual inflation growth fell from 7.3% to 6.9%. Better still this makes 4 months in a row where inflation has remained around 7%, rather than increasing quickly as it has since the middle of last year.

    Combined with the latest Retail Trade figures released this week which showed the dollar amount spent in the shops fell in October, and the volume of spending falling even faster, there are solid signs that the interest rate rises are having an impact.

    This means the Reserve Bank needs to be very cautious as much of the impact of the rate rises from September October and November has yet to flow through into the data. And because the rates of existing mortgages take longer to rise than do rates for new home loans this also means that even were the RBA to halt rate rises, for most mortgage holders rates will still be about to rise over the next few months.

    The IMF, OECD, Treasury and the RBA itself all forecast a sharp slowing of Australia’s economy next year and into 2024. The rationale has been that this is the cost of needing to reduce inflation, but the central bank needs to be very careful that it does not commit overkill. With the economy and consumer spending already slowing, and inflation showing some good signs that growth is no longer increasing at a rapid rate, the RBA should strongly consider not increasing the rate next week in its final board meeting of the year.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • Rough times ahead for Australia’s economy as oil, gas and coal companies celebrate

    Originally published in The Guardian on November 24, 2022

    The latest economic outlook from the OECD highlights the precarious path for Australia over the next few years.

    As Labour market and Fiscal Policy Director, Greg Jericho, notes in in his Guardian Australia column, the OECD predicts in both 2023 and 2024 Australia’s economy will grow by less than 2%. In the past such weak growth has been associated with recessions. And while a recession is not predicted, unlike for the UK and Germany, the OECD also notes the risks that lie ahead.

    One major problem is that most nations around the world are lifting interest rates to attempt to slow their economies and thus reduce inflation. The OECD notes however that when nations act in concert the impact of higher interest rates on slowing the economy is greater, while the impact on slowing inflation is weaker.

    Given Australia has a higher proportion of mortgage holders with variable rates this increases the risk that higher interest rates will slow our economy more than in other nations, and still have less impact on inflation.

    But one sector of the economy are rejoicing at the current conditions that are causing the rising inflation – energy companies.

    The OECD notes that the share of GDP being spent on energy by OECD nations is higher now than it was during the OPEC crisis in 1974 and 1980. The evidence again is clear that a windfall profits tax should be levied on coal, oil and gas companies who a reaping massive profits while the cost of living rises sharply for households.


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    Australia’s Gas Use On The Slide

    by Ketan Joshi

    The Federal Government has released a new report that includes projections of how much gas Australia is set to use over the coming decades. There is no ambiguity in its message: Australia reached peak gas years ago, and it’s all downhill from here:

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • Job Opening: Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow

    Job Opening: Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow

    by Jim Stanford

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    The Carmichael Centre at the Centre for Future Work invites applications for the Laurie Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow position. It’s a three-year posting, with awesome potential to explore a range of progressive issues related to unions, collective bargaining, industrial policy, and workers’ education.

    Applications are due at 11:59 pm 21 November 2022. The Melbourne-based position will start in January. Please see job description and application details below. Come and join our team!

    *   *   *   *   *

    The Carmichael Centre is a project housed within the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute, to acknowledge the legacy of former union leader Laurie Carmichael. Laurie passed away in 2018 after a lifetime of outstanding service and innovative leadership to the trade union and social justice movements in Australia. His legacy touches on numerous themes that remain relevant and pressing today, including:

    • The importance of active industrial policy to develop Australia’s value-added industries.
    • The importance of skills and vocational education to a strong economy and labour market.
    • The importance of strong union education programs to the development of an effective and vibrant cadre of union leaders and activists.
    • The importance of shorter working hours and superannuation to the quality of life of working people.
    • The importance of actively integrating economic, labour market and social policies, in a multi-dimensional plan for achieving full economic and social equality.
    • The importance of peace and resistance to war.

    The Carmichael Centre is established to:

    • Increase public awareness of Laurie Carmichael’s life, achievements, and ideas.
    • Undertake and publish new research into themes relevant to Laurie’s legacy (including trade unionism, vocational education, and labour and social policy).
    • Contribute to modern efforts to educate trade unionists in political-economy and related subjects.
    • Celebrate the achievements of the union movement and inspire emerging leaders.

    To that end, the Carmichael Centre hosts a 3-year research and public education position, the Laurie Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow, awarded to a mid-career or senior researcher in labour and industrial relations, political-economy, or a related field.

    The Fellow will undertake and publish new research, and undertake other educational and commentary activities, consistent with the themes and progressive vision expressed by Laurie Carmichael, and the goals of the Centre.

    The Fellow will be employed by the Australia Institute, and would work from our office in Melbourne.

    Compensation for the position will be consistent with experience of the successful candidate (and will include superannuation contributions and related employment expenses).

    Prospective candidates for the Fellow must demonstrate the following attributes:

    • Proven record of high-quality research and publication in fields relevant to the Carmichael Centre’s goals.
    • Demonstrated history of commitment to and engagement in the trade union movement.
    • Capacity and willingness to engage in the range of activities (including research, education, public commentary, and public events) that will be required of the role.

    Applicants are invited for the Carmichael Fellow. Applications must include a cover letter describing the applicant’s interest and experience in trade unionism and the themes relevant to the Carmichael Centre; a full resume (listing relevant experience and publications); and 2 letters of reference.

    Applications should be submitted electronically by 11:59 pm AEDT on Monday 21 November, 2022, to:

    recruitment@australiainstitute.org.au

    Only applicants selected for an interview will be contacted. Online interviews will be held in early December. The successful candidate will commence work in January, 2023.

    Thank you for your interest in the Carmichael Centre!


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • Webinar on Wages, Prices, and Power

    Webinar on Wages, Prices, and Power

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    The Australian Council of Trade Unions is sponsoring a series of webinars for union members, delegates, officials, and leaders on the current crisis in the cost of living in Australia. The surge in inflation since economic re-opening after COVID lockdowns has obviously intensified that crisis. But the seeds for it were planted long ago: by a decade of historically weak wage growth, a speculative property price bubble, and a systematic efforts to weaken collective bargaining and unionisation.

    Jim Stanford (Economist and Director) and Greg Jericho (Policy Director, Labour Market and Fiscal) from the Centre for Future Work are providing keynote presentations as part of this series. Below is a recording of the first of these presentations, presented by Jim.

    For other resources on inflation, how it is undermining real living standards for workers, and how to fix it (without throwing the whole economy into recession – an even bigger risk!), please see:

    The Wages Crisis: Revisited (Centre for Future Work overview of falling real wages, by Andrew Stewart, Jim Stanford, and Tess Hardy)

    An Economy That Works for People (ACTU Macroeconomics Discussion Paper)

    The Cure of Inflation Looks Worse than the Disease (latest Guardian Australia column by Greg Jericho)


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • With a global recession looming the cure of inflation looks to be worse than the disease

    Originally published in The Guardian on October 13, 2022

    This week the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook. And the outlook is dire. Economic growth around the world was downgraded with recession-like conditions being predicted for many advanced economies including the USA, UK and much of the EU.

    As policy director, Greg Jericho, notes in his Guardian Australia column, the outlook is not much better for Australia. The IMF is now predicting that in 2023 and 2024 Australia’s GDP will grow less than 2%. Such meagre growth in the past has been consistent with periods of recession.

    The report should serve as a stark warning to central banks around the world that their efforts to limit inflation by sharply raising interest rates is becoming more and more likely to end with a recession and the resultant massive loss of jobs that will follow. Experience from the 1980s and 1990s where similar recessions followed extreme tightening of monetary policy suggests it can take a long time to reverse the damage.

    While the Reserve Bank is somewhat constrained because it needs to be mindful of the rate rises in the USA that weaken the value of the Australian dollar, the IMF report should cause them to weigh much more the costs of sharply slowing growth through interest rate rises.

    We know that current efforts to limit inflation growth are mostly involving workers taking a real wage hit. Having to endure rising unemployment and a recession after 2 years of already extreme falls in living standards would be disastrous, especially while profits continue to rise.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • Work in the Care Economy Vital for Future Well-Being

    Work in the Care Economy Vital for Future Well-Being

    by Fiona Macdonald

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    There is growing understanding that care work — including jobs in aged care, disability services, early child education and care, and others — is of growing importance to future employment and wage trends, as well as to the quality of life of Australians who depend on these social and community services. For too long, jobs in these growing sectors have been devalued. Government underfunding and weak labour and quality standards have reinforced the degradation of work in care sectors. But with intense labour shortages, public concern about inadequate quality, and the need to expand services to meet social needs, there is now more widespread recognition that care jobs must be improved, and quickly: with more funding, better training, limits on private delivery, multi-employer bargaining, and more.

    Our Policy Director for Industrial and Social issues, Dr Fiona Macdonald, recently discussed these issues in a feature conversation with Richard Aedy on the ABC RN program, The Money. They discussed the size of the care workforce, the challenges faced by care providers and participants alike, and the need for government reform.


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  • The GDP figures show the ongoing shift of the national income to profits

    Originally published in The Guardian on September 8, 2022

    The June quarter GDP figures released by the Bureau of Statistics showed that over the past year the economy grew a seemingly strong 3.6%.

    But as labour market and fiscal policy director Greg Jericho notes in the Guardian Australia column, beneath those good numbers are a lot of problems, not the least of which is that wages continue to fail to keep up with inflation. Over the past year the total compensation of employees rose 7% but inflation in the national accounts rose 8.3%. Over the same period corporate profits went up 25%. We are at the absurd state of affairs where GDP is rising strongly, but real wages are not.

    We now have a situation where a record low share of national income is going to employees and a record high share is going to profits.

    The talk is always about lifting productivity and wages will follow, but the story for far too long now has really been productivity rising and profits following.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • Market power costs consumers, workers and the whole economy

    Originally published in The Guardian on August 25, 2022

    For most of the past 40 years whenever the discussion turns to the need to lift productivity, invariably the conversation is dominated by business groups and various media commentators who suggest the solution is more labour market flexibility. Just a bit more flexibility and productivity will improve!

    But a speech by the assistant minister for competition, Andrew Leigh, reveals that businesses themselves and the way in which the major players are allowed to dominate industries is a significant drag on productivity growth.

    In his Guardian Australia column, labour market and fiscal policy director Greg Jericho, reviews Dr Leigh’s speech and notes that over the past 20 years market concentration has increased across the whole economy. Over this time there has been a fall in the percent of new firms entering industries and also in established firms leaving. This produces a more sluggish economy where the need to innovate and pursue more productive operations is diminished. It also leads to firms being able to markup their prices by more each year as they consolidate their power, and also feel less need to offer better wages as the competition for labour falls.

    While wages growth crucially requires fair bargaining arrangements that enables workers to negotiate better wages, when workers have fewer options to pursue better paying jobs at other more productive workplaces, the number of workers switching jobs declines and so too does the market pressure to pay wages.

    Dr Leigh notes that this “decline in economic dynamism” needs greater policy focus, and his speech is an excellent corrective to the belief that improved productivity is all about taking away worker rights and giving more power to businesses to hire and fire.

    Australian business groups and many on the conservative side of politics love to talk up free-market competition, but the past 20 years has shown the markets are less about competition and more about concentration. And while profits have risen, workers and households have been left worse off.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • A decade of real wages growth lost as prices soar ahead of wages growth

    Originally published in The Guardian on July 28, 2022

    The latest inflation figures from the Bureau of Statistics reveal just how much workers have been left behind. Writing in Guardian Australia, labour market and fiscal policy director Greg Jericho notes that while the focus is on the biggest annual increase in inflation since the introduction of the GST, the data also shows that real wages have fallen drastically.

    Given prices grew 6.1%, but wages are expected only to achieve around 2.7% growth in the 12 months to June, it remains abundantly clear that inflation is not being driven by labour costs. Indeed given real wages have likely fallen around 3.4% in the past year, wages are currently extremely deflationary.

    Real wages have now fallen for 8 consecutive quarters sending the purchasing power of employees back to 2012 levels.

    While the economy has rebounded and profits have risen strongly with that of prices, the “recovery” from the pandemic has very much been on the backs of workers who have effectively lost a decade’s worth of growth in real wages.

    Even worse, given the greatest price rises have occurred for essential commodities, it is clear low to median income workers are hurting much more than those who devote less of their spending on essentials than does the average household.

    All this is occurring with unemployment at near 50-year lows. It is now abundantly clear that the labour market systematically disempowers employees and needs to be reformed.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have