My Blog

Category: Education & Training

  • Budget briefing paper 2025-2026

    Education & Training, Gender at Work, Industry & Sector Policies, Macroeconomics, Social Security & Welfare, Tax, Spending & the Budget, Wages & Entitlements

    Budget briefing paper 2025-2026

    by Greg Jericho, Charlie Joyce, Lisa Heap and Fiona Macdonald

    Authors

    Greg Jericho

    Chief Economist

    Charlie Joyce

    Researcher

    Lisa Heap

    Senior Researcher

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

    The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget.

    As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives.  There is very little in this budget that is new other than the surprise tax cuts, which are welcome given they benefit mostly those on low-incomes. There are continuing investments in some key areas supporting wages growth, where it is sorely needed, and rebuilding important areas of public good. However, there remains much that needs to be done in the next parliament.

    This briefing paper reviews some of the main features of the budget, focusing on those aspects targeting and impacting on workers, working lives and labour markets.

    The establishment of a $1 billion Green Iron Investment Fund to provide capital grants to green iron projects is a significant investment. With $500 million of this fund going to the troubled Whyalla steelworks this investment should ensure ongoing integrity in the management of this vital industrial asset. We believe the government should take a significant ongoing stake in the ownership of the Whyalla steelworks. The $2 billion Green Aluminium Production Credit, to incentivise Australian aluminium smelters to switch to renewable electricity before 2036, is a necessary and welcome policy to assist the transition to a low emissions economy. Unfortunately, the credit is not available until 2028-2029.

    New and ongoing support for students in TAFE and in higher education are important cost-of-living measures while also making education and training more inclusive and accessible. There is some new funding for previously announced initiatives that support workers and wages growth and some funding for new wage increases in the female-dominated, and low-paid, aged care and early childhood education and care sectors; demonstrating the government’s commitment to addressing long-standing undervaluation of feminised care occupations. Continuing government support will be needed as the current Fair Work Commission review of awards to address undervaluation progresses.

    Other reforms in ECEC, along with previously announced changes to paid parental leave and carer payments, provide welcome, but belated, support for working parents and carers. It is disappointing to see that the opportunity has been missed to raise Job Seeker and Youth Allowances from their grossly inadequate levels.



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  • Leaving Money on the Table: Foregone Economic Gains from Continued SRS Underfunding

    Education & Training, Public Sector, Procurement & Privatisation

    Leaving Money on the Table: Foregone Economic Gains from Continued SRS Underfunding

    By locking in public school underfunding, Australia misses out on important economic, labour market, and fiscal benefits.
    by Jim Stanford

    Author

    Jim Stanford

    The Commonwealth government’s current offer to fund public schools to just 22.5% of the agreed Schooling Resource Standard would leave much of the current school funding shortfall unrepaired. This would squander many of the economic benefits that would otherwise result from full public school funding. Based on disaggregation of previous estimates of the economic benefits generated by stronger school funding and hence scholastic outcomes, we estimate the failure to fulfil the 25% Commonwealth contribution required for full SRS funding would ultimately forego GDP gains of $3.5 to $5 billion per year, and impose net fiscal costs on government (all levels) of $0.6 to $1.5 billion per year.

    International and Australian research has confirmed the substantial economic and fiscal benefits of well-funded and accessible public schools. Extrapolating international evidence, previous research from the Centre for Future Work estimated cumulating Australian GDP gains reaching $18-$25 billion per year after two decades, as a result of fully meeting SRS funding standards for public schools. Those gains are experienced via increased employment and value-added in the school sector; improved productivity and wage outcomes for school graduates; and reduced income support and social expenditures as a result of better overall education. Higher GDP would in turn generate revenue gains for government that exceed the expense of meeting SRS funding benchmarks in the first place.

    The failure to fully fund public schools is clearly a case of false economy. The relatively small amounts of money ‘saved’ in the near term, are more than offset by long-run underperformance according to numerous indicators: school attainment and completion, productivity, GDP, and fiscal balances. The Commonwealth government is leaving money on the table, with its failure to fully meet SRS funding requirements.



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  • Solid Foundations, Bright Future

    Education & Training, Industry & Sector Policies, Tax, Spending & the Budget, Wages & Entitlements

    Solid Foundations, Bright Future

    An Analysis of New South Wales Economic and Fiscal Advantages
    by Jack Thrower

    Author

    Jack Thrower

    Senior Economist

    New South Wales has one of the most prosperous and productive economies in Australia, with a diverse base of economic activity and strong labour market. However, years of austerity have hollowed out its public sector, creating one of the proportionally smallest state public sectors in the country in terms of both economic activity and employment.

    Despite the instrumental role the public sector played in navigating the state through the pandemic, weak wage growth and rising inflation have compounded the impacts of austerity, leading to significant reductions in public sector real wages. While the current government’s scrapping of the wage cap and implementation of public sector wage rises has undone some of this damage, most notably the October 2023 wage rises for public school teachers, more repair is needed.

    The NSW government has a strong fiscal position with which to manage these challenges. NSW maintains nearly the highest credit rating in the country and relies on revenue bases that are both diverse and stable. Additionally, there is considerable evidence that, if needed, several options are available to increase state government revenue. As the state economy weakens in response to high interest rates and declining real incomes, the state government has the responsibility to contribute to support the economy and broader society, through expansion of public services, repair of public sector wages, and support for the most vulnerable.



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  • The Case for Investing in Public Schools

    Education & Training, Tax, Spending & the Budget

    The Case for Investing in Public Schools

    The Economic and Social Benefits of Public Schooling in Australia
    by Eliza Littleton, Fiona Macdonald and Jim Stanford

    Authors

    Eliza Littleton

    Senior Economist

    Fiona Macdonald

    Acting Director, Centre for Future Work

    Jim Stanford

    Media release



    Report Reveals True Potential of Fully Funded Public Schools

    Education has long been recognised as a vital determinant of both personal life chances and broader economic and social performance.

    Public schools play a critical role in ensuring access to educational opportunity for Australians from all economic and geographical communities.

    Public schools are accessible to everyone. They provide a vital ‘public good’ service in ensuring universal access to the education that is essential for a healthy economy and society.

    However, inadequate funding for public schools – measured by persistent failure to meet minimum resource standards established through the Schooling Resource Standard (SRS) – is preventing students in public schools from fulfilling their potential. Growing evidence (including the latest NAPLAN testing results) attests to declining student completion and achievement in Australia, with major and lasting consequences for students, their families and communities, and the economy.

    In this new report, Centre for Future Work researchers Eliza Littleton, Fiona Macdonald, and Jim Stanford document the large economic and social benefits of stronger funding for public schools. The report measures three broad channels of benefits:

    1. The immediate economic footprint of public schools, including direct and indirect jobs in schools, the education supply chain, and downstream consumer industries.
    2. The labour market and productivity gains resulting from a more educated workforce.
    3. Social and fiscal benefits arising from the fact that school graduates tend to be healthier, require less support from public income programs, and are less likely to be engaged with the criminal justice system.

    Citing international and Australian evidence regarding the scale of these three channels of benefit, the report estimates that funding public schools consistent with the SRS would ultimately generate ongoing economic and fiscal benefits two to four times larger than the incremental cost of additional funding. For governments, the fiscal payback from those benefits (via both enhanced revenues and fiscal savings on health, welfare, and criminal justice expenses) would exceed the upfront investments required in meeting the SRS.

    Please see the full report, The Case for Investing in Public Schools: The Economic and Social Benefits of Public Schooling in Australia, by Eliza Littleton, Fiona Macdonald, and Jim Stanford.



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    Factsheet
    Report Reveals True Potential of Fully Funded Public Schools

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  • Public Attitudes on Issues in Higher Education

    Education & Training, Public Sector, Procurement & Privatisation

    Public Attitudes on Issues in Higher Education

    Corporatised Model for Australian Universities is Eroding Public Trust, Education Quality
    by Eliza Littleton

    Author

    Eliza Littleton

    Senior Economist

    Stronger public universities are vital to the success of dynamic, innovative economies, and more inclusive labour markets. But decades of fiscal restraint and corporatization have eroded the democratic governance and equitable delivery of public higher education in Australia. There are widespread concerns among both university staff and the broader Australian community regarding many higher education issues: including funding, governance, the insecurity of work in universities, the quality of education, and the affordability of attending university.

    This report, by Senior Economist Eliza Littleton, combines data from the Department of Education, the OECD, and original survey data from a national poll conducted by the Centre for Future Work to draw attention to key challenges facing public universities today. The Federal Government’s new ‘Universities Accord’ creates an important opportunity to address these challenges and put higher education back on a better path.



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  • Submission to the Senate Standing Committee on Education and Employment

    Education & Training

    Submission to the Senate Standing Committee on Education and Employment

    by Eliza Littleton

    Author

    Eliza Littleton

    Senior Economist

    As tertiary education has become increasingly essential to employment outcomes, financial security, and meeting the demands of the future economy, the importance of affordable or free tertiary education increases. Instead, education is getting more expensive. Tuition fees have increased significantly since their introduction, and debts are growing and taking longer to repay. The context of high inflation and declining real wages HELP indexation and low repayment thresholds are putting an unnecessary financial burden on already disadvantaged Australians. The Government should consider abolishing indexation on educational loans and increasing the threshold for repayments.



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  • Educating for Care

    Education & Training

    Educating for Care

    Meeting Skills Shortages in an Expanding ECEC Industry
    by Mark Dean

    Author

    Mark Dean

    Laurie Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow

    Media release



    Pandemic Workforce Crisis Requires TAFE Investment in Early Childhood Education to Boost Economy: Report

    This report from the Carmichael Centre argues that Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) services should be treated as a strategic industry of national importance – not just a ‘market’, and not just a ‘cost’ item on government budgets.

    Building a stronger, more accessible, and high-quality ECEC system is not just a top-ranking social priority for several reasons:

    • The ECEC sector supports hundreds of thousands of jobs.
    • It directly creates billions of dollars of value-added in the Australian economy.
    • It generates further demand for other sectors – both upstream, in its own supply chain, and downstream in consumer goods and services industries that depend on the buying power of ECEC workers.
    • It facilitates work and production throughout the rest of Australia’s economy, by allowing parents to work – although that goal would be much better achieved if Australia had a more comprehensive, universal, and public ECEC system.
    • ECEC enhances the long-term potential of Australia’s economy, and all of society, by providing young children with high-quality education opportunities – that are proven to expand their lifetime learning, employment, and income outcomes, and enrich their families and communities.

    Australia’s current market-based system for ECEC funding and service provision is incapable of meeting the needs of parents, families, and the broader economy. A drift to the market-based provision of ECEC services has undermined public provision in Australia and diminished the quality of service and the conditions under which it is delivered.

    From this crisis-ridden starting point, the staff recruitment and retention challenge in ECEC will become much worse, if in fact Australia were to make a long-term commitment to expand ECEC provision to adequately meet the needs of working parents (and the entire economy).

    Much public debate over the viability of expanded ECEC, putting Australia on a par with other leading industrial nations, has focused on the fiscal dimensions of that undertaking: how would we pay for it?

    If Australia is going to expand its ECEC system in line with the needs of working parents and employers, increasing funding to the Nordic-level average for ECEC must be considered, and ramping up high-quality vocational education for ECEC workers must be an immediate and highest-order priority to meet the workforce needs of expanded ECEC coverage.

    A long-term commitment to improved funding and service delivery, ideally aimed at matching Nordic-level coverage and quality benchmarks, would require a larger, better-trained, better-supported, and better-compensated workforce. A pro-active strategy for sustainable workforce development should be developed and implemented with input from all stakeholders, including ECEC providers, unions, VET institutions (particularly TAFEs), and government.

    The best possible education and care to Australian preschool-aged children should also be provided by the most highly trained and experienced workers – employed in delivering a public or not-for-profit service, and well-trained in public vocational education delivered through the TAFEs.

    In this sense, developing a universal public ECEC system is a natural analogue to developing a universal public VET system: building a world-class public ECEC system, staffed with top-notch graduates from public TAFEs, provides a dual source of economic and social benefit.

    Meeting the goals of high-quality ECEC services thus means recognising that the full and proper funding of Australia’s state- and territory-based TAFE systems must be an essential component of post-pandemic economic reconstruction.

    An active industry policy for ECEC will set the direction for the de-marketisation of ECEC services, with higher levels of government funding facilitating a vastly expanded system of ECEC in Australia.

    A vital prerequisite in this effort is establishing a stable, professional, well-supported ECEC workforce, by providing extensive education and training of ECEC workers, and their entry to secure, well-paid career pathways. This can only be achieved by fully funding the training and development of a regular pipeline of trained ECEC workers, led first and foremost by greater investment in publicly funded, TAFE-delivered education and skills, new mandates for workforce qualifications and staffing levels, and health and wellbeing quality frameworks that neutralise cost-competitive approaches to delivering ECEC services.



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  • At the Crossroads

    Education & Training

    At the Crossroads

    What is the post-COVID future of Australia’s Public universities?
    by Eliza Littleton

    Author

    Eliza Littleton

    Senior Economist

    Media release



    Free Undergraduate Education to Save Universities and Jobs: Report

    Selected media impact

    If the federal government lifts annual higher education spending to 1% of GDP, it could repair the destruction inflicted by the COVID pandemic and make universities more accessible and affordable for all Australians, according to new research from the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute.

    The report analyses the current worrying state of Australia’s higher education sector based on current funding and policy trends, and provides an ambitious national vision for higher education that re-aligns the sector with its public service mission.

    At the Crossroads, authored by Eliza Littleton, identifies seven key policy initiatives including free higher education for domestic students, that if implemented, would put Australia’s public universities on a path toward full revitalisation.

    Key Findings:

    • Delivering free undergraduate education for domestic students, an expanded public research program, thousands of secure jobs, and a new national governance body for the sector would cost an estimated $6.9 billion per year in additional higher education funding. This funding would generate almost 27,000 additional jobs (FTE) in higher education through easing workload pressures, additional researching funding and staffing a new independent higher education agency.
    • Since 2013, Federal Government funding for higher education has declined in real terms by 2.6%, despite a 23% increase in student enrolments.
    • Federal Government funding as a percentage of university revenue has more than halved since the 1980s, declining from 80% in 1989 to only 33% in 2019. In Budget 2022-23, the government forecasts a cut to real university funding of 3.4% over the forward estimates.
    • Universities responded to the pandemic shock with dramatic job cuts. In the 12 months to May 2021, 40,000 jobs in public tertiary education were lost, with 88% of these losses estimated within public universities.
    • The Federal Government’s Job-Ready Graduates reforms result in a reduction in government spending on student learning of $1 billion per year, while student contributions increase $414 million per year.
    • In the face of COVID shocks, sustained international student fee intake combined with reduced teaching costs through online distance education and job cuts have primed universities for healthy surpluses this financial year. Despite that, universities are continuing with measures that further downsize and casualise their workforces,
    • Reduced government spending and university deregulation has led to teaching and learning crisis. Rampant casualisation, short-term contract use, excessive workloads, and wage theft characterise employment arrangements in Australia’s universities.

    The report recommends several measures to revitalise Australia’s public universities:

    • Free undergraduate education for domestic students
    • Adequate public funding for universities
    • Fully-funded research
    • Measures to provide secure employment
    • Improved higher education governance
    • Caps on vice-chancellor salaries; and
    • Transparency in data collection.



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  • The Economic Benefits of High-Quality Universal Early Child Education

    Education & Training, Public Sector, Procurement & Privatisation

    The Economic Benefits of High-Quality Universal Early Child Education

    by Matt Grudnoff

    Author

    Matt Grudnoff

    Senior Economist

    Media release



    Universal Public Early Child Education in Australia Would Pay For Itself: Research Report

    Expanded ECEC services would provide a badly-needed boost to Australia’s economic recovery from COVID-19.

    A universal ECEC system should be viewed as a fundamental goal for the future Australian economy. Achieving the superior quality and economic benefits of the Nordic systems cannot be done instantly, of course. But our ECEC policies should be reoriented and expanded, with a universal, publicly-delivered, high-quality, and affordable system akin to the Nordic benchmark as its end goal. That will require more substantial investments in ECEC funding, and its reallocation toward the not-for-profit and public facilities which deliver the best quality, and the largest economic benefits.



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  • Fragmentation & Photo-Ops

    Education & Training, Public Sector, Procurement & Privatisation

    Fragmentation & Photo-Ops

    The Failures of Australian Skills Policy Through COVID
    by Alison Pennington

    Author

    Alison Pennington

    Senior Economist

    Media release



    New Research: Australia’s Skills System Continues to Crumble After COVID

    Selected media impact

    Strong vocational education and training (VET) systems are vital to the success of dynamic, innovative economies and inclusive labour markets. Australia’s VET system once provided well-established and dependable education-to-jobs pathways, but a combination of policy vandalism and fiscal mismanagement plunged the VET system into a lasting and multidimensional crisis.

    During the pandemic, the federal government has pursued further VET restructuring through the implementation of several wage and training subsidy programs at the cost of several billion dollars. This has deepened the “contestable market” experiment unleashed in the 2000s, by subsidising further decentralisation of course content, delivery and student recruitment to unaccountable for-profit training providers. Meanwhile, more TAFE institutes have been closed and enrolments have continued to decline.



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