Tag: Alison Pennington Senior Economist

  • Wrecking superannuation, not protecting women, is the government’s priority

    Originally published in The New Daily on March 20, 2021

    It doesn’t matter what the crisis, when it comes to the Morrison government the message is clear: you’re on your own.

    Women deserve so much more than what Jane Hume is proposing, writes Alison Pennington. Photo: AAP

    It doesn’t matter what the crisis, when it comes to the Morrison government the message is clear: you’re on your own.

    As women across Australia lead historic mobilisations demanding government action on gendered violence week, the federal government encouraged women facing domestic abuse to raid their own superannuation accounts.

    Calling superannuation withdrawal measures of up to $10,000 “an important last resort lifeline” for women experiencing domestic violence, Minister for Superannuation, Financial Services and the Digital Economy Jane Hume later announced the policy would be reviewed following concerns from frontline workers about victim coercion.

    Minister Hume now proposes to strengthen the “integrity” of the scheme with safeguards protecting the free withdrawal of funds. But additional steps for accessing women’s retirement funds do not change the policy’s message: survivors of abuse must fund their own crisis supports. All the while abusers roam free – an addition of intolerable insult to injury.

    Safeguards may stop abusive partners forcing women to raid their retirement savings, but it’s not stopping the federal government. The early-release scheme is entirely consistent with the government’s clear established priorities: dismantling the superannuation system – rain, hail or shine.

    Women marching for economic security and safety are not just ignored by the government. The Coalition’s anti-superannuation crusade to transform the system into an emergency personal bank account actively exploits women’s heightened COVID-era economic vulnerability.

    Women worse off since COVID

    In the initial COVID shutdowns, women experienced greater losses of jobs and hours. Against this backdrop of women’s desperation, the federal government introduced the superannuation early release scheme. Significantly, this was introduced two weeks before the introduction of the Coronavirus Supplement and the JobKeeper wage subsidy.

    Between April and December 2020, 1.5 million women drew down their super, one-quarter of the entire female workforce. $14.9 billion was stripped from women’s already meagre retirement savings. Some 345,000 women completely emptied their accounts. Many more women aged under 20, and also those aged 36-55 (prime working years pre-retirement), withdrew from their superannuation compared to men.

    In 2018, the Coalition announced domestic violence would be added to the list of early release “compassionate grounds”. Frontline domestic violence services voiced concern back then too. Now, pressured by intensifying calls for a proactive government addressing gendered violence, the Coalition suggests “safeguards”.

    The federal government acknowledged heightened gendered violence risks during COVID. But it has still failed to give sufficient funding to the domestic violence sector, lift critical income supports for vulnerable women fleeing abuse, or introduce paid domestic violence leave into minimum labour laws. In fact, $1 million was cut from anti-domestic violence education programs in schools in the 2020 October Budget.

    Early release scheme exacerbates disadvantage

    Women already face systematic disadvantage in the superannuation system and have much lower retirement incomes: they retire with barely half the retirement savings of men. There urgently needs to be targeted reforms to prevent labour market inequalities that reduce women’s career earnings from being baked into the superannuation system as well.

    Abolishing the $450 per month minimum threshold, closing the ‘motherhood gap’ by making super payable for all paid and unpaid care-related absences, and proceeding with the legislated increase in the superannuation guarantee (to 12 per cent) are all important to boosting women’s economic security and safety.

    In the absence of real action on gendered workplace and domestic violence, the government’s superannuation early release scheme for domestic violence victims only exacerbates women’s economic insecurity.

    Women desperate for incomes to survive are more reliant on abusive partners and low-wage casual jobs, more helpless to the threat of ‘handsy’ bosses and colleagues, and below-poverty welfare payments in the future. This latest policy only increases the risks of gendered violence over women’s lifetimes.

    For women experiencing job loss, financial hardship or domestic violence, the message from the federal government is one we are getting sick of hearing: in a crisis, you’re on your own.

    Australian women deserve so much more.


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  • Briefing Paper: Women’s Casual Job Surge Widens Gender Pay Gap

    Briefing Paper: Women’s Casual Job Surge Widens Gender Pay Gap

    by Alison Pennington

    This briefing note presents data on the gendered composition of the employment recovery since May.

    It shows women’s jobs returned on a more part-time and casualised basis than for men, and that the influx of women’s lower-earning jobs widened the gender pay gap between May and November 2020.

    While women were more likely to lose these same jobs early in the COVID pandemic (and so the return of these jobs is predictable), these statistics demonstrate how the gender pay gap worsens with increases in part-time and casual jobs.

    Finally, the paper describes three major existing and proposed government policies that are likely to widen pay inequality in 2021.



    Full report

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  • Submission to Senate Inquiry into the Fair Work Amendment (Supporting Australia’s Jobs and Economic Recovery) Bill 2020

    Submission to Senate Inquiry into the Fair Work Amendment (Supporting Australia’s Jobs and Economic Recovery) Bill 2020

    by Alison Pennington and Jim Stanford

    In December 2020, the Senate of Australia launched an important inquiry into the federal government’s proposed Fair Work Amendment Bill.

    Core features of the legislation include clarifying and expanding employer power to hire workers on a casual basis, obtain greater flexibility in the use of permanent part-time workers (adjusting hours up or down without penalty, much like casual workers), and exercise greater unilateral wage-fixing influence in enterprise agreement (EA)-making.

    The Centre for Future Work were glad to make a submission to this inquiry. The submission assesses major components of the legislation, and finds measures proposed will result in the expansion of employer power to use insecure labour and low-wage enterprise agreements, placing further downward pressure on already record-low wages.

    Alison Pennington presented evidence in-person to the Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee in Adelaide on February 10th. A transcript of her testimony is attached below.

    Read the Centre for Future Work’s opening statement to the Senate Inquiry.

    The Fair Work Amendment Bill is introduced in a fragile moment in Australia’s history, with wages decelerating to the slowest sustained pace since the Depression – growing by less than 2% per year since 2015, and now at an utter standstill: growing just 0.1 per cent in the September quarter.

    In our judgment, several features of this legislation will enhance the power of employers to hire workers on a just-in-time basis, suppress wages, and undermine terms and conditions. Key measures proposed include:

    • Allowing employers to hire workers on a casual basis in virtually any position ‘deemed’ to be casual, with weak and inaccessible permanency conversion rights enabling long-term casual labour use.
    • Reduction in permanent part-time loadings and hours security, allowing employers to treat permanent workers as if they were casual (with the power to adjust hours up or down without penalty).
    • Exempting enterprise agreements from the ‘Better Off Overall Test’ (BOOT) allowing them to contravene Modern Award standards. This will increase below-Award agreement-making and “repurpose” enterprise bargaining into a mechanism for lowering wages and standards – rather than raising them.
    • Other measures aimed at the Fair Work Commission would accelerate the approval of low-quality enterprise agreements: including 21-day approval timelines, weakening of employer requirements to demonstrate that their staff have genuinely agreed to the EA, and restrictions on the participation of unions in the review process.

    Together, these changes would constitute a significant weakening of institutional supports for improving wages and working conditions. This is the opposite outcome to the stronger wage growth many economists (including Governor of the RBA Dr Phillip Lowe) agree is desperately needed to support Australia’s more sustainable and inclusive recovery.

    You can download the Centre for Future Work’s full submission to the Senate Inquiry below, authored by Senior Economist Alison Pennington, and Director and Economist Dr Jim Stanford.



    Full submission



    Transcript

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  • How Non-Union Agreements Suppress Wage Growth – And Why the Omnibus Bill Will Lead to More of Them

    How Non-Union Agreements Suppress Wage Growth – And Why the Omnibus Bill Will Lead to More of Them

    by Alison Pennington

    The federal government’s omnibus Industrial Relations bill proposes sweeping changes to labour laws which will generally enhance the power of employers to hire workers on a just-in-time basis, and will put further downward pressure on Australian wages (already growing at a record-low rate). One outcome of the bill will be an acceleration of enterprise agreements (EAs) written unilaterally by employers, without negotiation with any union. These non-union EAs will be favoured for several reasons if the omnibus bill is passed: EAs will be exempted from the current Better Off Overall Test, employer-designed EAs will be subject to less scrutiny at the Fair Work Commission, and employers will have less stringent tests to ensure their proposed EAs are genuinely approved by affected workers. All of these changes will lead to a significant increase in employer-designed EAs that reduce compensation and conditions, rather than improving them – signalling a return to the WorkChoices pattern of EA-making.

    In a new report, Centre for Future Work Senior Economist Alison Pennington assesses the major ways in which the IR bill will accelerate non-union EA-making, and considers three specific ways this in turn will undermine wage growth in Australia compared with existing collective bargaining laws.

    Main findings of the report include:

    • The omnibus bill’s proposals to exempt agreements from the Better Off Overall Test (BOOT), reduce scrutiny by the Fair Work Commission (FWC) and weaken employer obligations to demonstrate that their staff have genuinely agreed to the EA will increase the number of non-union employer-designed EAs.
    • Wage increases under non-union EAs are consistently and significantly lower than in union EAs – on average 1-percentage-point lower than for union-covered EAs since 2010.
    • Alarmingly, the majority of non-union EAs approved 2006-19 did not specify any wage increases at all, instead linking wage increases to non-legislated measures like CPI, minimum wage decisions by the FWC, or entirely to employer discretion.
    • In addition to lower (or no) wage increases, the average duration of non-union EAs is longer than for union EAs, locking in their inferior wage outcomes for longer periods of time.
    • Australia’s experience under WorkChoices when similar policies were implemented demonstrates that if the proposed measures are introduced, both the number of non-union EAs will increase, and the share of EAs without any specified wage increases will grow.
    • Since the majority (66%) of the current EA stock consists of higher-wage union agreements, any increase in the number of lower-wage, non-union EAs would increase their proportion within the total EA stock, reducing rather than lifting wages and conditions delivered through EAs overall.
    • Importantly, non-union EAs delivered significantly worse wages outcomes even while the BOOT was in place. The government’s proposal to exempt EAs from the BOOT will open the floodgates for employers to rush the approval of EAs that undercut Award wages, further suppressing wages growth in 2021 and beyond.
    • The BOOT exemption is proposed for a period of two years, but in reality, the terms of EAs negotiated under the BOOT exemption could stay in effect for many years afterward. This is because EAs continue to apply after their formal expiry date unless they are renegotiated or terminated.
    • The overall share of workers covered by EAs will likely increase if the measures pass. But since more of those EAs will consist of sub-standard, lower-wage deals, Australia’s current record-low wage growth will get worse, not better.



    Full report

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  • Migrant Workers Abandoned in the COVID Recovery

    Migrant Workers Abandoned in the COVID Recovery

    by Alison Pennington

    COVID continues to sweep Europe and the US, while Australia celebrates near-elimination of community transmission. But Australia’s public health success has not come without significant economic and social hardship for large sections of our community – especially migrant workers. Thousands of migrant workers were pulled off the job to stop the spread of COVID-19, and excluded from key government income support programs including JobSeeker and JobKeeper. Temporary migrant workers are still left without access to Medicare.

    In this short, accessible commentary, Senior Economist Alison Pennington outlines how the pandemic, the resulting recession and government COVID-era policies have increased risks to migrant workers’ financial security, and health and safety. Building more secure, inclusive labour markets can reduce risks that future major events don’t hit the most vulnerable hardest.

    This commentary was prepared for presentation to the Migrant Workers Centre Conference, November 2020.

    Migrant Workers & The COVID-19 Recession

    by Alison Pennington, Senior Economist at Centre for Future Work

    COVID infections continue to sweep Europe and the US while Australia celebrates multiple days without any cases of community transmission. But Australia’s public health success has not come without significant economic and social hardship for large sections of our community – especially migrant workers. Thousands of migrant workers were pulled off the job to stop the spread of COVID-19, and excluded from key government income support programs including JobSeeker and JobKeeper. Temporary migrant workers are still left without access to Medicare.

    As the economy slowly recovers from recession, migrant workers will face even greater hardship in accessing decent jobs and incomes. The expiration of temporary work visas without supports to reconnect with new employers, and in jobs that pay enough, will expose migrant workers to more intense exploitation.

    The federal government’s response to the unprecedented COVID-19 economic crisis has included big spending on tax cuts, subsidies and other business concessions as part of its “business-led recovery”. But there are many problems with how the government thinks about the economy, that will mean the economic crisis will be longer and more painful than it needs to be.

    The pandemic has left deep cuts in the economy: two million people (15% of labour force) are either unemployed, working far fewer hours than normal, or have left the labour market all together since the March lockdowns; consumer spending has not fully recovered after lockdown restrictions were lifted and people prefer to save in preparation for harder times. Companies are focused on recovering or maintaining profits, cutting investments in their businesses, and cutting spending on employment and wages. Private investments have been decreasing for years and will not miraculously rebound during a recession. Trusting the private sector to lead our post-COVID economic recovery therefore is like hoping for a miracle.

    Income tax cuts are mainly symbolic and do not have real and lasting impacts on boosting spending in the economy. In fact, normal pay rises are far more effective than tax cuts because the effect of wage growth is permanent and cumulative. The announced tax cuts are also unfairly designed to benefit high-income earners. 88 per cent of the combined permanent benefit of the tax cuts will go to highest-fifth of income earners whereas low- and middle-income earners will get only a one-time rebate of $1,080 at the next tax return.

    Wage growth is expected to stay at 1.25 per cent in 2021 – enough only to match the slow rise in consumer prices. But a higher unemployment rate and continued increase in part-time and casual jobs will cut household incomes even more. If the government adopted measures to strengthen wages including higher minimum wages and stronger collective bargaining rights, our recovery would be on a better track.

    Youth, women, migrant workers and long-term unemployed are in most need of targeted job-creation policies. But the federal government has presented no plan to create jobs for the millions of unemployed, underemployed and disenfranchised who want and need paid work. The JobMaker program provides a subsidy for 12 months to employers creating new jobs for young workers on unemployment payments. It is a short-sighted initiative that will not reach its intended claim of creating 450,000 jobs (Treasury estimate now 45,000). There is no guarantee young workers will maintain employment once the government stops paying for the subsidy.  Without job protections, the program will encourage the “churning” of vulnerable young workers in low-wage, insecure jobs. It could also displace existing workers and discourage the hiring of others. Migrant workers have already experienced mass redundancies when employers chose to engage workers who qualified for the JobKeeper subsidy. Migrant worker displacement may occur under JobMaker.

    Despite Australia’s macroeconomic weakness, the government intends to decrease spending by billions in cuts to the JobKeeper and Coronavirus Supplement payments in March 2021. The impacts on the jobs and incomes of low and middle-income workers will be disastrous. The real way to overcome the recession will be to restore the capacity of people to work, earn and be healthy, engaged members of a more inclusive Australian economy. This can be achieved only when the government commits to a long-term, ambitious vision for economic and social change, backed by substantial and sustained public spending. This vision should create more secure jobs, invest in climate-friendly industries, and strengthen and expand our public services like healthcare, education and skills.

    Rather than wait for private sector investment, the federal and state governments can expand direct public sector employment now. They can also ensure all people residing in Australia are protected from poverty and insecurity now. Urgent measures should be taken immediately to address the pronounced risks to migrant workers’ financial security, and health and safety experienced during this crisis:

    • Expand JobSeeker and the Coronavirus Supplement coverage to excluded migrant workers. Reverse the punitive and economically counterintuitive cuts to the Coronavirus Supplement, and permanently restore the $550 per fortnight rate.
    • Expand JobKeeper coverage to all workers, and end the two-tiered wage subsidy scheme, returning the original $1,500 flat payment rate permanently.
    • Create a paid sick leave scheme available to all workers, regardless of their work status.

    The pandemic has shone a light on the growing scourge of insecure work. Around half of all employment in Australia has one or more dimensions of precarity including casual, temporary, part-time insufficient-hours work, and self-employment. Precarious work contributed to the community spread of disease, such as in the private aged care system where widespread practices of multiple jobholding led to virus transmission between facilities.

    We have worked together to eradicate COVID-19, and we can work together to eradicate insecure work. Working to build more secure labour markets for all is about reducing risks that major events don’t hit the most vulnerable hardest. Job creating investment, quality public education and skills systems, income supports for all, and extending minimum labour standards like Award wages and collective bargaining are critical to an inclusive post-COVID recovery. And by strengthening the collective efforts of workers to take action in their unions, we can put good jobs and incomes in the driving seat of Australia’s economic recovery.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • IR Bill Will Cut Wages & Accelerate Precarity

    Originally published in Jacobin on December 15, 2020

    The Morrison government has proposed sweeping changes to labour laws that will expand unilateral employer power to cut wages and freely deploy casual labour. Together, the Coalition’s proposed changes will accelerate the incidence of insecure work, undermine genuine collective bargaining, and suppress wages growth. Impacts will be felt across the entire workforce – casual and permanent workers alike.

    In this extended commentary, Senior Economist Alison Pennington explains the main components of the IR Omnibus Bill, assesses their impacts on workers’ wages and labour protections, and offers some strategic analysis on how labour advocates can work towards addressing insecure work.

    This commentary was originally published in Jacobin. A shorter edited version was published in Michael West Media & John Menadue’s Pearls and Irritations.

    Scott Morrison’s Industrial Relations Laws Are a Kick in the Teeth for Australian Workers

    By Alison Pennington

    The Morrison government has proposed sweeping changes to Australian labor laws intended to cut wages, entrench precarious work, and cripple unions. The proposed changes would sweep away the remnants of collective bargaining and hand dictatorial power to bosses.

    Just a few months ago, Australia’s Coalition government was singing the tune of compromise and cooperation with unions. Now they’ve thrown away the songbook and taken the gloves off. Scott Morrison is giving Australian workers and unions class war — just in time for Christmas.

    Thanks to pandemic stimulus spending, 2020 was already a Christmas-bonus year for big business. With company profits up nearly 19 percent since 2019, they have already benefited to the tune of billions.

    But it’s never enough. So, industrial relations minister Christian Porter has introduced the Industrial Relations (IR) Omnibus bill. It’s a withering pro-business offensive aimed at slashing wages and resetting work conditions to boost profitability in the long term.

    The core of Porter and Morrison’s plan will grant employers the power to expand insecure work freely and to hijack enterprise bargaining. If it goes ahead, it will inflict a double wound on the working class, by degrading the Awards system (that sets minimum wages and conditions across industries) and by weakening what little remains of unions’ collective bargaining power.

    Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste

    The idea that workers’ economic security should be subordinated to business demands is archaic. It’s a form of employment that unions have fought bitterly since the nineteenth century, winning historic victories to curtail piece-work or at-home work, and to end the dictatorial control of gang masters over who did and did not work, and under what conditions.

    Some fruits of that multigenerational battle still remain embedded in today’s standard employment relationship, which guarantees rights to ongoing work and basic entitlements. However, neoliberalism’s decades-long onslaught has weakened unions. As a result, all of these abuses have returned, sometimes in new packaging — as is the case with the “gig economy.”

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    An Uber Eats part-time worker. (Jack Taylor / Getty Images)

    Today, 2.6 million Australian workers are defined as “casual.” This means that one in every four workers has no right to ongoing work, and no basic holiday or sick leave entitlements.

    This is justified by the claim that casual workers receive “casual loadings” (extra pay) to compensate for forfeited conditions. But this is a myth. Far from being compensated for the value of lost entitlements, most casuals are in fact much worse off.

    One third of all casuals receive no loadings at all, and most casuals are not paid more than permanent workers in the same jobs. In industries with high casual density, the premium is around 4-5 percent — far from the oft-cited figure of 25 percent.

    Bosses love to praise the virtues of “flexibility,” claiming that casuals don’t want permanent work. But this mantra is also a lie — half of all casuals have worked regular shifts for one year or more.

    Rather than simply allowing firms to employ a few extra workers on a seasonal basis, casual work is increasingly the way that Australian businesses meet their medium- and long-term labor needs. And, in the post-COVID era, they increasingly see casual labor as the foundation for boosting profits.

    Accelerated Precarity

    Two recent major court cases found that businesses which employ casuals on regular, stable, and predictable schedules are liable to pay leave entitlements. It was estimated that this would cost employers over $39 billion.

    In response, business lobbyists unleashed campaigns to “resolve the definition issue” so as to avoid court-ordered repayments. This — as well as the growing importance of casual work to profits — explains why Morrison and Porter have made entrenching casual work the cornerstone of their IR Omnibus bill.

    They want to define casual work in the broadest possible terms. Any job deemed casual by the employer will be, legally, a casual job. This means your job can look like a permanent job and smell like a permanent job — but employers will still be able to legally engage you as a casual and strip your legal entitlements at will. This is a body blow to the present system of legal protections.

    The pandemic has highlighted the dangers of insecure work. But for the Coalition and their business allies, it changed nothing. Even while frontline, often insecure workers risked their lives, the government was keen to increase the number of workers trapped in precarious, low-wage jobs.

    First, the Coalition excluded over one million casuals from the JobKeeper wage subsidy. Then, they reduced the Coronavirus Supplement, hoping to force the unemployed and vulnerable into insecure work while making it cheaper for businesses to rehire workers. Next, Liberal treasurer Josh Frydenberg announced JobMaker — a payment that directly subsidizes new, insecure youth jobs that will allow bosses to sack existing, more expensive and older workers.

    The JobKeeper subsidy is set to end in March, exactly when Porter’s sharpened wage-cutting tools are due to kick in. Employers will go on the offensive, recouping lost public subsidies by taking even more from their workers.

    The bill’s supposed sweetener is a measure that will require employers to offer casuals permanent work if they have been employed for twelve months, with six months of continuous regular hours scheduling. Not only will it be easy for employers to vary hours and schedules to avoid meeting that high benchmark, they will also be allowed to refuse to make an offer on so-called “reasonable grounds.”

    The government was sure to define “reasonable” in incredibly broad terms and to deny workers the right to appeal a decision through the Fair Work Commission (FWC). Got a problem with your employer’s decision? The Federal Court will hear your case — but only if you have a spare ten or twenty thousand dollars lying around.

    Deregulating Permanent Work

    Accelerating the growth of insecure work is also about cannibalizing protections for the permanent workforce, by making permanent jobs resemble casual ones. New so-called “part-time flexi” reforms will let bosses employ permanent part-time workers as though they were casuals.

    Only sixteen hours will have to be paid according to normal permanent rates and entitlements, while an additional twenty-two hours (comprising a total work week of up to thirty-eight hours) will be free of overtime loading. With the stroke of a pen, this threatens to dissolve hard-won rights that deliver predictable and stable schedules for permanent part-time workers.

    With a flexible twenty-two hours of ordinary-time labor up for grabs, employers will be able to work these “part-time” workers like full-timers on a regular basis — as supervisors and managers, for example. But they won’t have the security of regular hours or receive overtime compensation for being at the employer’s beck-and-call. The flexibility will be blissful — for bosses.

    For all the Coalition rhetoric about “job creation,” this wholesale deregulation of working hours really means that bosses will be able to cheaply increase hours for existing workers in line with fluctuations in demand. That will free them from having to hire more people. It’s galling that the government would present the creation of a “part-time flexi” employment category as a solution to record-high and growing underemployment.

    There’s no shortage of glossy marketing. For example, low-wage work will be expanded under the guise of “roads to permanency.” But when you cut through the spin, the Coalition’s agenda is to reduce the incomes of millions and to deny millions more decent jobs. During a recession, with labor-force utilization already low, they’re arming employers with powerful weapons to cut wages and conditions in the jobs that remain. These moves will generalize despair and desperation across the entire workforce.

    Hijacking Collective Bargaining

    Worst of all, the IR Omnibus bill contains a trifecta of changes to the laws governing enterprise agreement (EA) making. These changes will allow businesses to draw up workplace agreements by themselves more easily — that is, without a union. They will be allowed to undercut the minimum rates and conditions outlined in industry Awards with these nonunion agreements. Additional changes will let employers lock in wages stipulated by an enterprise agreement for eight years at a time.

    This is nothing less than a hijacking of what’s left of collective bargaining. In fact, handing employers unilateral power over enterprise agreement wage-setting was the cornerstone of former Liberal PM John Howard’s infamous WorkChoices legislation.

    The Coalition’s plan will allow employers to bypass the Better Off Overall Test (BOOT) for two years. As it is, the BOOT ensures that new agreements do not leave workers worse off than under minimum Award conditions. The suspension of the BOOT coincides with new measures that will weaken scrutiny of subpar nonunion agreements by the FWC, unions, and employees.

    The move has been taken straight from the wish list of business lobbyists. It will open a floodgate of nonunion below-Award agreements that will permanently damage living standards.

    There’s a precedent for this. Under Howard’s WorkChoices, the “No Disadvantage Test” was abolished and unions were denied the right to contest agreements, leading to an explosion of nonunion agreements. Between 2004 and 2009, the proportion of nonunion agreements approved in the private sector rose from 20 to 60 percent.

    After 2009, when WorkChoices was partly rolled back, the number of dodgy agreements dramatically declined to pre-Howard levels. Why? Because as part of the Fair Work Act, the Better Off Overall Test was introduced.

    Even so, the WorkChoices-era surge in nonunion, low-wage agreements had a lasting, negative impact on wage growth. “Zombie Enterprise Agreements” persisted for years. For example, Merivale, a Sydney hospitality empire, paid over three thousand staff up to 20 percent below Award wages on an expired nonunion EA set in 2007 for over ten years.

    This is possible because EAs live on, sometimes for years, until they’re replaced or terminated — usually on request by unionized employees. Today, tens of thousands of workers are still languishing on Howard-era below-Award enterprise agreements.

    Unfair Work

    The FWC has the power to change and approve agreements so long as employees remain better off overall, compared to the relevant Award. On top of this, there already exists a relatively untested provision whereby the FWC may approve agreements with below-Award conditions in so-called “exceptional circumstances,” provided they meet the overall public interest.

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    A couple who both lost their jobs recently watch local news in their apartment. (John Moore / Getty Images)

    The IR Omnibus bill will weaponize the “public interest test” governing this power, enabling business to push even further. The Coalition’s hand-picked business leaders in the FWC will surely oblige.

    Australian business and their allies in the Coalition have dedicated enormous resources to crushing what remains of collective bargaining. Their goal is to corrode the infrastructure of the labor movement’s past victories.

    This is why the Coalition also wants to introduce eight-year agreements on new projects valued at over $500 million or $250 million, if the project is of national significance. Existing laws mean that employers can only seek FWC approval on agreements for new projects (called “greenfields” agreements) after six months of bargaining with the relevant union.

    However, if the BOOT is scrapped, employers could feasibly draw up greenfields agreements undercutting Award conditions for up to eight years, circumventing unions and simply hiring a new workforce under the new agreement.

    Since Australia’s draconian anti-union laws prohibit industrial action at any time outside an EA bargaining period, eight-year agreements give employers the power to block strikes as well as to cut wages. There is also a political logic to it: it’s a cost and risk reduction strategy, guarding against any future joint campaigns that link unions with other elements of civil society. For example, unions will face crippling fines for striking at any time during the eight-year period to support campaigns against inappropriate development, or against new mining projects.

    As if this weren’t enough, the Coalition is bolstering the power of the courts and the anti-union Australian Building and Construction Commission to inflict millions of dollars’ worth of fines on unions for activities which are entirely normal and legal in other democratic countries.

    It couldn’t be clearer. Just as the Coalition’s 2020 budget gifted business with billions in subsidies, tax cuts, and other handouts, this, too, is a vast gift to capital, purchased at our expense.

    A Common Enemy

    The union movement has a good chance of stopping the BOOT changes in the Senate, where minor parties hold the balance of power. But everything else is up for grabs thanks to the Coalition’s Christmas “spirit of compromise.”

    Insecure work is the enemy of unionization. Workers living in permanent precarity and intermittent poverty are less likely to join unions. Only 8 percent of union members are casuals. And when the bargaining power of unions declines, all workers suffer.

    By expanding casual work, the IR Omnibus bill will strike the harshest and most comprehensive blow to wages and living standards in many years, both now and in the future. This is why the union movement must resist insecure work everywhere it rears its head.

    We need unions that are willing to build power among existing, permanent workers who are in a better position to endure the risks of industrial action. It’s still harder and more expensive to sack permanent, more senior workers. But without a fight back, this will change too — the growth of precarity means that even secure workers are on increasingly unsteady ground.

    Permanent conversion rights for casuals don’t work without workplace union power. Unions must unleash aggressive collective bargaining campaigns aimed at bringing all workers under the same agreement “roof” and into permanent work. This would have to include bringing contracted-out and labor-hire work back in-house.

    Since the most precarious sectors of the workforce have lower union power and no access to collective bargaining, we also need a united union movement willing to mobilize all of our 1.5 million members, linking the pockets of union power in the private sector (including construction, ports, and logistics) to our largest public sector bases in health care, education, and social services. We must weave good jobs back into the fabric of Australia’s social contract — this means fighting for jobs that offer rights to ongoing employment and basic entitlements like holiday pay, sick leave, and superannuation.

    Most importantly, reviving unions after years of decline will require determined efforts to rebuild a modern workers’ movement with deep support and social roots. This will mean working with climate action, anti-poverty, welfare rights, and other social justice and community organizations.

    Unions and their allies have to push for working-class politics at every level of government, from local to federal, and build a broad coalition that will put decent jobs and economic democracy at the center of a progressive vision for Australia.

    Public institutions like Medicare, public education, TAFEs, superannuation, and corporate taxation are widely popular. Australians broadly agree with the need to rebuild a domestic manufacturing sector and to refund the arts and tertiary education. The union movement could be the vehicle that makes these aspirations real.

    This project can be popular. This year, the profit-hungry zealots of Australian business and the Coalition’s conservative apparatchiks told us that “we must learn to live with the virus.” But Australians overwhelmingly disagreed, and instead supported the subordination of short-term business interests to the public good. Despite a well-funded conservative campaign, large majorities overwhelmingly supported shutting down the economy to save lives.

    Now we must protect ourselves against another virus that would irreparably damage the quality of workers’ lives in the name of higher corporate profits. That virus is insecure work. It’s lived among us too long — it’s high time we shut it down.


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  • The Pandemic is Our Clarion Call to Rebuild Good Jobs

    Originally published in The Age on November 5, 2020

    Victorians emerging from lockdowns now confront Australia’s harsh COVID-era work reality marked by more insecure jobs, mass unemployment, and long-term work at the kitchen table.

    In this commentary, which originally appeared in The Age, Centre for Future Work Senior Economist Alison Pennington discusses what the pandemic reveals about Australia’s high levels of insecure work, new work-from-home risks, and how rebuilding more secure labour markets will be critical to creating more good jobs in our post-COVID recovery.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • An Investment in Productivity and Inclusion

    An Investment in Productivity and Inclusion

    The Economic and Social Benefits of the TAFE System
    by Alison Pennington

    The COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in an era of unprecedented disruption and transition. Increased public investment in the skills and earning capabilities of Australians will be critical to our post-pandemic recovery.

    This report from the Centre for Future Work finds despite chronic underfunding and failed market-led VET policies, Australia’s historic investment in the TAFE system continues to generate an enormous and ongoing dividend to the Australian economy. The TAFE system supports $92.5 billion in annual economic benefits through the direct operation of TAFE institutes, higher incomes and productivity generated by the TAFE-credentialed workforce, and reduced social benefits costs.

    “The Australian economy is reaping an enormous flow of economic benefits from a VET ‘house’ built by the TAFE system. But the ‘house’ that TAFE institutes built is crumbling. If Australia wants to secure the benefits of a superior, productive TAFE-trained workforce as we prepare for post-COVID reconstruction, the damage must be repaired quickly,” said Alison Pennington, Senior Economist with the Centre for Future Work and author of the report.

    The report adopts a multidimensional approach to measuring the wide economic and social benefits of the TAFE system resulting from Australia’s historic investments in public vocational education. Over $6 billion in economic activity and 48,000 jobs are supported by the direct operation of TAFE institutes and the TAFE supply-chain. Through its accumulated contribution to the employability and skills of Australians, the TAFE system generates another flow of benefits worth $84.9 billion per year in higher incomes and productivity. Those benefits are shared by workers in higher incomes, firms in higher profits, and federal and state governments – which receive $25 billion per year in extra tax revenues. Finally, another $1.5 billion in fiscal savings are enjoyed by governments through reduced costs for health and welfare benefits for TAFE graduates. Altogether, the TAFE system drives $92.5 billion in benefits per year – equal to almost 5% of Australia’s GDP.

    “Australia will squander the demonstrated economic benefits generated by our investments in the TAFE system, and unnecessarily limit our post-COVID recovery if we don’t act quickly to reinstate the critical role that TAFE plays in the VET system.”

    Key Findings:

    • Australia’s historic investments in quality TAFE education supports a combined and ongoing flow of total economic benefits worth $92.5 billion to the Australian economy in 2019 — 16 times greater than the annual ‘maintenance’ costs Australia currently reinvests in the TAFE system.
    • The presence and activity of TAFE institutes ‘anchors’ over $6 billion per year in economic activity and 48,000 jobs from the direct operation of the TAFE system and its supply chain, and ‘downstream’ consumer spending impacts.
    • The TAFE-trained workforce generates $84.9 billion per year in higher incomes and business productivity. $49.3 billion is paid in additional earnings to TAFE-credentialed workers (relative to earnings of workers without post-school training); businesses receive $35.6 billion in increased profits from a more productive TAFE-trained workforce.
    • The costs of delivering TAFE are modest – only $5.7 billion per year, or 0.3% GDP. Extra tax revenues received by governments thanks to the superior productivity and incomes of TAFE-trained workers alone are worth $25 billion per year: 4.4 times more than the total costs of running the TAFE system.
    • The TAFE system increases employability and lowers unemployment. TAFE graduates enter the labour force with better employment prospects and skills. The increased labour force participation and employability of TAFE graduates corresponds to additional employment of 486,000.
    • The TAFE system promotes wider social benefits critical to addressing inequality. TAFE helps ‘bridge’ access to further education and jobs pathways in regional areas and for special and at-risk youth groups. TAFE students are more likely to come from low-income households and identify as Aboriginal compared with private VET providers.

    “Major public skills investments will be best coordinated by TAFE institutes as the longest-standing and most reliable ‘anchors’ of vocational training and must be at the centre of an economic reconstruction process.”

    “By providing bridges to further education and jobs for regional, low-income and at-risk youth groups, the TAFE system is critically important to addressing systemic inequality in Australia’s economy and society.”



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  • Victorian Inquiry Offers Novel Routes to Regulating Gig Work

    Victorian Inquiry Offers Novel Routes to Regulating Gig Work

    by Alison Pennington

    Findings from a landmark inquiry commissioned by the Andrews Victorian government into the work conditions in the “on demand” (gig) economy have been released. The report’s findings are timely with COVID-era unemployment surging and an expanding pool of vulnerable workers relying on “gig” work to meet living costs.

    This commentary outlines the key findings of the On-Demand Inquiry.

    Victorian Inquiry Offers Novel Routes to Regulating Gig Work

    Findings from a landmark inquiry commissioned by the Victorian government into the work conditions in the “on demand” (gig) economy have been released. The Inquiry confirms workplace laws have failed to keep pace with economic change.

    Release of the report’s findings are timely with COVID-era unemployment surging and an expanding pool of vulnerable workers relying on “gig” work to meet living costs. How do platform “digital sweatshops” work?

    Platform business models recruit workers without access to secure and better compensated jobs (especially migrant and young workers). Jobs performed are often menial and without adequate safety protections. Gig workers lack stable work schedules or incomes, and receive wages that often fall well-below social norms and legal minimums.

    The major recommendations by the Inquiry chaired by former Fair Work Ombudsman Natalie James include:

    • A more systematic application of the “work test” currently used to classify workers as employees or independent contractors by codifying the test in the Fair Work Act (rather than common law). This would create a nationally coherent framework for extending protections including minimum pay and conditions to gig workers genuinely working for another’s business.
    • Alter competition laws and establish a new industry Award to enable gig workers to bargain collectively with platforms.
    • Strengthen the gig work regulatory regime through industry codes of conduct between platforms, governments and unions for non-employee gig workers, overseen by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, and allow an independent tribunal to oversee work status determinations.

    We commend the Inquiry on the ambitious scale of the investigation, and the innovative pathway proposed for gig work regulation.

    Three Centre for Future Work reports on gig work in Australia were cited in the final report. Research by Director Jim Stanford (with Andrew Stewart from University of Adelaide) featured in the report’s major recommendation that collective bargaining rights be extended to gig workers to lift pay and conditions of gig work.

    Read our full submission to the Inquiry — Turning Gigs Into Decent Jobs — by Jim Stanford and Alison Pennington.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • Austerity Threatens Women’s Access to Paid Work

    Originally published in The New Daily on June 25, 2020

    Women have suffered the worst labour market impacts since the shutdowns. Gender-unequal impacts have been due to women’s greater exposure to customer-facing industries shut down first by public health orders, higher employment intensity in insecure and part-time positions, and an increased caring burden unmet by the state. But instead of providing countervailing support, the federal government is accelerating women’s work crisis.

    In this commentary, originally published in the New Daily, Senior Economist at the Centre for Future Work Alison Pennington outlines how government’s austerity agenda has intensified the unequal jobs fallout and threatens to “turn back the clock” for women’s economic security.

    How the government is turning back the clock for women

    The increase in women’s workforce participation is the most significant labour market trend of the past 40 years.

    However, in the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, the gender boundaries of paid work are being redrawn.

    Worse still, the government is the one holding the pen.

    Women have suffered the worst labour market impacts since the shutdowns.

    Total employment fell by 7.3 per cent for women compared with 5.7 per cent for men between February and May.

    About 450,000 women have lost their jobs and 350,000 left the labour market all together.

    Women saw a 12 per cent decline in hours worked, compared to 9 per cent for men.

    This gender inequity stems from three main channels:

    This combination has created a ‘perfect storm’ for women in the workplace.

    However, instead of stepping up to provide countervailing support, the federal government is only exacerbating the crisis.

    This started back when JobKeeper was announced and excluded short-term casuals by design, which affects more women than men.

    And then, most recently the government targeted early JobKeeper cuts to childcare workers in what is a cruel double blow.

    Not only do more women work in child care, but more women benefit from access to affordable child care.

    The cumulative impact of Australia’s effective gender pay gap of 32 per cent (in average weekly earnings for all workers) and inadequate parental leave supports for cash-strapped families makes their work-care decisions clear cut.

    Without affordable child care, mum’s got to stay home.

    There’s more bad news on the industrial relations front.

    Last week the Fair Work Commission decided to freeze minimum wages for up to seven months, in the sectors with the lowest wages and most precarious jobs – which are, surprise, mostly women’s jobs.

    While women have been bearing the brunt of the economic impacts of COVID19, state and federal governments have targeted stimulus spending on the most bloke-heavy industry in the economy – construction.

    For every $1 million invested in construction only 0.2 direct jobs are generated for women.

    Yet $1 million invested in education generates almost 11 jobs for women.

    In fact, education investment creates more jobs for just women than construction creates for anybody: Man or woman.

    Job-generating spending for women is best directed to the public sector.

    Women make up 61 per cent of all public sector workers, with the sector supporting fuller female participation – women hold 54 per cent of full-time roles but only 35 per cent of full-time roles in the private sector.

    Not only would public sector pay cuts risk driving this recession into a depression, they disproportionately hurt women’s incomes.

    Even temporary wage freezes (of one or two years) compound into tens of thousands of dollars in lost wages compounding over her working life.

    And austerity pain radiates far beyond income losses for affected workers, reducing consumer spending (right when the economy needs more), tax revenues and enhancing deflation risk.

    When the largest employer in the economy cuts wages, it has a powerful effect for other employers.

    It’s not just a hunch, this is exactly what happened after the GFC.

    The unnecessary 2011-12 federal public sector wages caps cut the legs out from everyone’s wages.

    But the pain induced from pay cuts doesn’t end there. Because lower-wage environments breed insecure work.

    People accept lower-quality jobs or juggle multiple jobs to earn the same income. Women are much more likely to work these precarious jobs.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has acknowledged that COVID-19’s fallout has been harshest on women.

    Yet his government is pushing an agenda that will ensure there will be less jobs for women, and they’ll be worse paid.

    Economic inclusion of women must be targeted in a long-term, sustained public investment plan that mops up the private sector carnage and lets us build back better.


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    Commonwealth Budget 2025-2026: Our analysis

    by Fiona Macdonald

    The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget, focusing on key areas for workers, working lives, and labour markets. As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives. There is