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  • Unpaid Overtime Rife, Despite Shift to “Work from Home”

    Unpaid Overtime Rife, Despite Shift to “Work from Home”

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    New research has revealed that almost three-quarters of Australians “working from home” are doing at least some of it in non-work-time. This has contributed to a substantial rise in the incidence of unpaid overtime this year, which now costs Australian workers almost $100 billion a year.

    The Centre for Future Work’s 12th annual Go Home on Time Day report shows that, despite total work-hours falling and much of the workforce shifting to ‘work from home’, Australians are currently putting in an average 5.25 hours of unpaid work every week – the equivalent of 7 weeks of full-time work per person, per year.

    The report calls for additional protections for people working from home, including limits on hours, overtime pay when relevant, allowances for extra home office expenses, and better OHS rules for home work.

    Key Findings:

    • Even though total work hours have fallen, and much work has shifted to home, demands for unpaid overtime remain strong
      • On average, workers reported working 5.25 hours of unpaid work per week—an increase from 4.6 in 2019
      • This equates to 273 hours per year, or over 7 weeks of full-time work
      • At the economy-wide level, this equates to $98.6 billion in lost income
    • 70% of people doing work from home, are doing at least some of it non-work hours
    • 21% of workers indicated that their employers’ expectations of their availability had increased during the COVID-19 crisis
    • 28% of workers said their family and/or caring responsibilities had increased as a result of COVID-19
      • Of those employees who had additional caring responsibilities, 27% of men had not received time allowances from their employer to do so. But almost half (45%) of women had not—evidence of an increasing double burden for women
      • 16% of respondents whose employers made time allowances for caring responsibilities reported having lost pay if they were permitted to accommodate caring responsibilities
      • Men were more likely to get flexibility from their employer and retain the same pay (57% of men with increased caring responsibilities), compared to women (39%)

    “This year our annual survey of working hours has highlighted an insidious trend: even when you are ‘home’, unpaid overtime is still rife,” said Dan Nahum, economist at the Centre for Future Work and author of the report.

    “For many, the reality of working from home is more like living at work.

    “One-third of workers indicated that, post-COVID, they expect to work from home more. But without adequate rules and protections, this risks a further incursion of work into people’s personal time, poorer health and safety standards, and greater polarisation between those jobs that can be conducted from home and those that cannot.

    “Employers have a duty of care to the worker, regardless of the location of employment, so it is incredibly concerning—for both employers and employees—that 14% of people working from home indicated their home workspace was not appropriate or not safe.

    “COVID-19 has clearly heightened the challenge facing workers of balancing their paid jobs, with their responsibilities at home. Our research shows that working from home is no panacea for this balancing act – in fact, in some ways it makes the problem harder.”


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  • Work and Life in a Pandemic

    Work and Life in a Pandemic

    An Update on Hours of Work and Unpaid Overtime Under COVID-19
    by Dan Nahum

    2020 marks the twelfth annual Go Home on Time Day, an initiative of the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute that shines a spotlight on overwork among Australians, including excessive overtime that is often unpaid.

    It has been an extraordinary and difficult year, to say the least. Many workers are doing at least some of their work from home, and the standard scenario of ‘staying late at the office’ around which we have often shaped our Go Home On Time Day analysis in the past applies to fewer workers than usual. But that is not to say that workers aren’t doing work for free—in fact, the estimated incidence of ‘time theft’, or unpaid overtime, has gone up compared with 2019 (see our results here). And in many cases people’s responsibilities in their home lives have increased in response to the health and social crisis, accentuating the double burden faced by workers—and especially by women workers.

    Survey data suggests the average Australian worker puts in 5.3 hours per week of unpaid overtime, despite the shift towards home work. Many employers expect this free labour as a sign of workers’ “dedication”, but it’s unfair and in many cases illegal. Across the whole labour market, this theft of workers’ time now amounts to almost three billion hours, or $100 billion, per year. In an environment of depressed household demand and purchasing power, this has extraordinarily damaging consequences throughout the economy—including throughout the business sector.

    Additionally, 70% of people working at home are doing some of it outside of normal working hours. The post-COVID rise in home work may constitute a further incursion of work into people’s personal time, and a further undercutting of Australia’s minimum standards around employment (including hours, overtime, and penalty rates).



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  • Rebooting Australian Aluminium

    Rebooting Australian Aluminium

    The Economic, Social and Environmental Potential of the Portland Smelter
    by Jim Stanford

    A new report from the Centre for Future Work highlights the continuing economic importance of Alcan’s aluminium smelter in Portland, VIC, and discusses the potential of new renewable energy technologies to underpin the facility’s rejuvenation and long-term viability.

    The report updates previous research by the Centre on the far-reaching impacts of the facility for employment, incomes, exports, and tax revenues. It also identifies the growing capability of renewable power sources to support heavy industrial activities like smelting.

    Main findings of the report include:

    • The closure of Portland would reduce Australian national GDP by $800 million, exports by $840 million, household incomes by $250 million, Commonwealth government revenues by $192 million, and Victoria state government revenues by $50 million. (All figures annual.)
    • A total of 3600 direct and indirect jobs would be lost as a result of the facility’s closure – with the economy of southwestern Victoria suffering the worst blow.
    • Rapid developments in renewable energy technology could significantly improve both the cost and the reliability of electricity supply to the Portland smelter. Already renewable energy enjoys a 30% saving in levelised costs compared to coal (which currently powers the majority of Portland’s consumption). That advantage will widen in future years, driven by falling costs for both renewable generation and storage.
    • Global businesses, including top-tier manufacturers which purchase aluminium and aluminium components, are increasingly demanding high sustainable production standards from all of their suppliers – including aluminium ingots and components. Australia’s endowment of renewable energy resources gives us a major head start in responding to this trend.
    • In addition to renewable power sources, new technologies can also allow aluminium smelters to operate with significantly lower power inputs for several hours at a time, on relatively frequent occasions, without damaging capital equipment. This ‘frequent demand response’ technology effectively allows the smelter to act as a huge battery for the electricity system, and could even generate significant incremental revenue for the smelter (supplementing sales from aluminium production).

    Reinvesting in the Portland facility, including in a secure and sustainable electricity supply, holds the potential to lead a broader revitalisation of aluminium manufacturing in Australia, and contribute to advances in sustainable manufacturing.

    The update was commissioned by the Australian Workers Union.



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  • The Choices We Make

    The Choices We Make

    The Economic Future of Tasmania
    by Dan Nahum

    New research by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work analyses the economic effects of COVID-19 on Tasmania, and suggests how Tasmania can ‘build back better’ out of the COVID-19 crisis, making key recommendations to help Tasmania avoid the mistakes made at the Federal level. Ahead of Tasmania’s State Budget, set to be delivered on 12 November 2020, in this new report the Centre for Future Work has explored what the shape of Tasmania’s economy could look like, and how it can recover and reconstruct after this pandemic.

    Businesses and households will not simply ‘regain confidence’ and drive a full recovery themselves. Indeed, Tasmania’s proactive and protective fiscal response indicates that the state government already understands that major support from government is necessary. As a proportion of the state’s gross state product, Tasmania has committed the largest amount of funding of any state. Meanwhile, extremely low borrowing costs mean that there is no reason for the state government not to undertake a more proactive role in the economy than it has done historically, even if that means higher deficits.

    However, a short-term, counter-cyclic approach does not adequately respond to the full scope of the challenge. The underlying working machinery of the economy is not in good order. COVID-19 has highlighted existing vulnerabilities and created new ones, and it has also limited the scope of the private sector to respond.

    The state government in Tasmania will clearly be required to play a hands-on, leading role in job creation, investment and income generation for years to come, and it will need to borrow to do so. This fact should not be feared, but celebrated: large deficits are the flipside of the public investment that will be required to undertake Tasmania’s reconstruction. It will be necessary to mobilise economic resources, to meet human needs and to get Tasmanians working again—especially if the intention is to build a more resilient and diverse economy than the one that existed before COVID-19.

    The Tasmanian economy will not have the same shape as it did before the pandemic. Tasmania can and must think differently about what is possible. Our purpose in this research paper is to add momentum to Tasmania’s conversation about its economic, and social, future. As a result of COVID-19, Tasmania could push itself forward into the next stage of its economic development, or it could, alternatively, spiral into a depression, scarring lives and communities. It cannot afford that. Tasmanians, moreover, deserve far better.

    The report recommends:

    • the Tasmanian Government make a larger investment in public housing
    • the State Government also expand public sector investment into the health, aged and disability care sectors
    • outsourced public sector functions should be returned to direct provision by Government wherever possible, to improve cost, accountability and quality
      • doing so will also provide the State Government with a lever to improve wages and conditions across the economy, especially in sectors dominated by women
    • the Tasmanian Government should also support and co-invest in several strategic industries, including manufacturing and renewable manufacturing, tourism and hospitality, arts and entertainment, food production, and higher education.



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  • The Pandemic is Our Clarion Call to Rebuild Good Jobs

    Originally published in The Age on November 5, 2020

    Victorians emerging from lockdowns now confront Australia’s harsh COVID-era work reality marked by more insecure jobs, mass unemployment, and long-term work at the kitchen table.

    In this commentary, which originally appeared in The Age, Centre for Future Work Senior Economist Alison Pennington discusses what the pandemic reveals about Australia’s high levels of insecure work, new work-from-home risks, and how rebuilding more secure labour markets will be critical to creating more good jobs in our post-COVID recovery.


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    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs

    by Charlie Joyce

    Dutton’s nuclear push will cost renewable jobs As Australia’s federal election campaign has finally begun, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposal to spend hundreds of billions in public money to build seven nuclear power plants across the country has been carefully scrutinized. The technological unfeasibility, staggering cost, and scant detail of the Coalition’s nuclear proposal have

  • Feature Interviews: Worker Voice in a Changing World of Work

    Feature Interviews: Worker Voice in a Changing World of Work

    by Jim Stanford and Alison Pennington

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    The Centre for Future Work’s Jim Stanford, and Alison Pennington feature in a collection of interviews on technology, work, climate, and the role of unions, for a new online course Power, Politics and Influence at Work delivered by the University of Manchester, UK.

    Video recordings of the interviews are available here:

    The videos were recorded for a 5-week on-line course Power, Politics and Influence at Work run by the University of Manchester. The Centre’s staff are featured alongside several leading scholars, trade union activists and international agencies such as the ILO/Oxfam.

    Academics and researchers Tony Dundon, Miguel Martinez Lucio, Emma Hughes and Roger Walden designed the course for labour and NGO activists and students interested in labour market equalities, work and employment. Registration is free.


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    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

    IR Bill Will Cut Wages & Accelerate Precarity

    by Alison Pennington in Jacobin

    The Morrison government has proposed sweeping changes to labour laws that will expand unilateral employer power to cut wages and freely deploy casual labour. Together, the Coalition’s proposed changes will accelerate the incidence of insecure work, undermine genuine collective bargaining, and suppress wages growth. Impacts will be felt across the entire workforce – casual and permanent workers alike.

  • Budget’s Illusory Hope for Business-Led Recovery

    Budget’s Illusory Hope for Business-Led Recovery

    by Jim Stanford

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    The Commonwealth government tabled its 2020-21 budget on 6 October, six months later than the usual timing because of the dramatic events associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recession. There is no doubt it is a budget unlike any other in Australia’s postwar history. While the budget certainly unleashes unprecedented fiscal power, its underlying logic and specific policy design are unsatisfactory in many ways. We present here analysis and commentary on several aspects of the budget, drawing on input from all of the Centre’s research staff: Economist and Director Dr. Jim Stanford, Senior Economist Alison Pennington, and Economist Dan Nahum.

    Key conclusions of our analysis include:

    • This budget says explicitly that Australia’s economic reconstruction after COVID-19 is to be trusted almost entirely to private business – helped along with generous tax cuts and business subsidies.
    • The need to strengthen public services (like health care, child care, and higher and vocational education) is largely ignored, as is the need to preserve and strengthen income security programs (with the phase-out of JobKeeper and cuts to JobSeeker going ahead).
    • Tax cuts, whether targeted at businesses or high-income households, will have little impact on actual spending and job-creation.
    • The government needs a more forceful, hands-on, and sustained reconstruction plan to ensure that the economy does not get ‘stuck’ in its current state of partial recovery. That needs much more public sector leadership, vision, and funding.
    • The government admits that wage growth is going to get weaker before it gets stronger – but is doing nothing about that critical problem (which will undermine consumer spending far more than tax cuts will stimulate it).

    Download our full review of the 2020-21 budget below.


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    2020-21 Budget Analysis

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    Commonwealth Budget 2025-2026: Our analysis

    by Fiona Macdonald

    The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget, focusing on key areas for workers, working lives, and labour markets. As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives. There is

    Centre For Future Work to evolve into standalone entity

    The Centre for Future Work was established by the Australia Institute in 2016 to conduct and publish progressive economic research on work, employment, and labour markets. Supported by the Australian Union movement, the centre produced cutting edge research and led the national conversation on economic issues facing working people: including the future of jobs, wages

  • 480,000 Jobs Rely on QLD Public Service, Cuts Would Deepen the State’s Recession

    480,000 Jobs Rely on QLD Public Service, Cuts Would Deepen the State’s Recession

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    With state budget deficits a potential issue in the coming Queensland election, new research from the Centre for Future Work shows that cutting public sector jobs and wages would directly undermine the delivery of essential public services at a challenging time in Queensland’s history. Moreover, misplaced fiscal austerity would also hurt the state’s economic recovery by reducing spending, employment and production in the private sector. These effects would be especially severe in regional and remote QLD, which is most reliant on public service jobs.

    The report, by the Centre for Future Work, finds that for every 10 direct jobs in state-funded public services, another 4.5 jobs are supported in the QLD private sector. This means that these public services support a total of some 480,000 public and private sector jobs across Queensland. Cuts to public services and staffing would impact private sector jobs and incomes, deepening the recession.

    Key Findings:

    • Some 480,000 positions are supported, directly and indirectly, by the provision of state-funded public services in Queensland.
    • This includes 331,000 direct public sector jobs, as well as over 150,000 more positions in the private sector that depend on the economic stimulus provided by public sector work.
    • For every 10 direct jobs in the state-funded public service, another 4.5 jobs are supported in the private sector.
    • Regional and remote Queensland is the most reliant on state public sector workers – both for the services they provide, and as a source of high-quality employment for local residents. State public sector workers account for almost 12% of total employment in remote and very remote regions of QLD.
    • The report simulates two potential scenarios of fiscal austerity in Queensland. It finds that fiscal austerity (imposed via cuts to public service staffing and wages) would cause substantial harm to Queensland’s economy: including cumulative losses (over three years) of $9-$16 billion in state GSP, and the loss of 20-35,000 person-years of employment in the private sector.

    “In this unprecedented time, the maintenance of public services is surely a more urgent priority than cutting government spending in pursuit of some illusory fiscal target,” said Dan Nahum, Economist at the Centre for Future Work and author of the report.

    “By cutting employment and incomes for public sector workers (and the private sector industries which depend on public services for their own markets), misplaced austerity would undermine economic recovery and reduce GDP.

    “A more constructive and effective response to the COVID crisis is to expand the economic and social footprint of government, including state governments – not shrink it.

    “Attacking public sector employment and compensation, just at the time Queenslanders need more public services, not less, would be a major policy mistake.”


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  • Public Service in Challenging Times

    Public Service in Challenging Times

    The Economic and Social Value of Public Sector Work in Queensland
    by Dan Nahum

    In times of crisis, governments have a responsibility to their citizens to maintain and expand their role in the economy – for both economic and social reasons. This responsibility has never been clearer than during the current COVID-19 pandemic, and its associated economic downturn. Australians are counting on their governments to protect them from the pandemic, support them through the resulting recession, and play a leading role in rebuilding a stronger, healthy society in the aftermath of this unprecedented catastrophe.

    Moreover, the economic benefits of providing those essential services spread throughout the state economy, supporting jobs and incomes including in the private sector.

    In the context of the upcoming Queensland election, research from the Centre for Future Work shows that in addition to some 331,000 direct jobs providing broader state-funded public services, 150,000 private sector positions depend on the economic stimulus provided by public sector work. In total, some 480,000 positions are supported, directly and indirectly, thanks to the provision of state-funded public services in Queensland. In particular, regional and remote Queensland depends on the public sector as a crucial source of decent, socially valuable jobs, performed by well-qualified people, earning (and spending) middle-class incomes in their regional communities.

    Cutting public sector jobs and wages not only directly affects their own economic fortunes, but also negatively impacts the broader economy through spillover reductions in demand, spending, and production. To dramatise these broader economic consequences, this report describes simulations of two possible three-year austerity scenarios:

    • A one-year ‘freeze’ in aggregate public sector payrolls (considering both wages and staff levels).
    • A one-year 5% ‘cut’ in aggregate public sector payrolls (effected through some combination of wage and staff cuts).

    Over three years, the ‘freeze’ scenario reduces total GDP by a cumulative total of over $9 billion: including the loss of incomes for state public servants, and the resulting loss of income and output in the whole range of consumer goods and services industries which depend on the consumer spending of public sector workers. This decline in GDP translates into the loss of 20,000 person-years of employment in the private sector industries which are hurt by the freeze. Over a similar three-year period, the ‘cut’ scenario would reduce cumulative GDP by $15 billion, and eliminate some 35,500 person-years of employment in private-sector goods and services industries.

    In this unprecedented moment, the maintenance of public services (and supporting the jobs that depend directly and indirectly on those services) is surely a more urgent priority than cutting government spending in pursuit of some illusory fiscal target.



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  • New Analysis: 12,000 Community Service Jobs at Risk Due to Funding Uncertainty

    New Analysis: 12,000 Community Service Jobs at Risk Due to Funding Uncertainty

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    New economic research shows up to 12,000 community service jobs are at risk due to the Federal Government’s failure to confirm whether federal funding for community service organisations will be maintained.

    The new report released today by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work demonstrates the economic importance of Commonwealth pay-equity funding at a time when these community services are critical to Australia’s pandemic-damaged economy.

    Key Findings:

    • The Federal Government is yet to confirm whether it will continue $576.5 million in supplemental funding for federally-supported community services, currently set to expire in the current (2020-21) financial year.
    • This special funding was part of the Commonwealth government’s legislated 9-year timetable to phase in pay equity wage adjustments in community services.
    • If this funding is not renewed (either by incorporation into a higher level of core funding for affected organisations, or through the extension of explicit pay equity supplements), the resulting funding shortfall will undermine and reverse the progress that has been made toward pay equity since the 2012 pay equity order.
    • The loss of federal pay equity supplements would inevitably produce some combination of staffing cuts and wage cuts, as organisations respond to such a significant loss of funding.

    “If experienced fully through staff cuts, the end of federal supplements would result in the loss of close to 12,000 jobs in federally-supported community organisations,” said Dr. Jim Stanford, director of the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    “Alternatively, if the brunt of the funding cut is experienced through effective wage reductions it would reduce annual incomes for federally-funded community service workers by as much as $15,000 for full-time staff.

    “To put up to 12,000 community service jobs at risk, or force community service workers to take a $15,000 a year pay cut in the middle of global pandemic and an economic recession is both heartless and economically self-destructive,” Dr. Stanford said.

    The Centre for Future Work report also found that the broad health and social services sector (which includes most of these community service organisations) has reduced the gender pay gap by more than any other industry in the years since the pay equity reform was announced.

    Those past gains will be undermined and reversed unless federal funding consistent with new pay equity norms is quickly confirmed.


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