Category: Tax, Spending & the Budget

  • Productivity in the Real World

    Productivity in the Real World

    What it is, what it isn’t, and how to make it work better for workers
    by Jim Stanford

    Claims that Australia faces a productivity crisis are overblown. Weak productivity didn’t cause the current problems facing Australian workers (falling real wages, high interest rates, unaffordability of essentials like housing and energy). Nor will higher productivity fix these problems.

    Faith that higher productivity will automatically trickle down, to be shared by all workers, is unfounded. Pro-active measures to lift wages and living standards are needed if stronger productivity growth is to support stronger living standards.

    This report presents empirical evidence showing that productivity growth in recent decades has not been equally reflected in higher real wages and better living standards.

    • Productivity grew four times faster since 2000 than average wages adjusted for consumer prices; it grew almost twice as fast as average wages adjusted for producer prices.
    • If workers had received wage increases since 2000 that matched productivity growth, wages would be as much as 18% higher than they are at present – worth $350 per week, or $18,000 per year.
    • Over time, the failure of wages to keep up with productivity has created a “productivity debt” effectively owed to workers, worth hundreds of thousands of dollars per worker.

    The fruits of productivity growth have been disproportionately captured in the form of business profits, dividend payouts, and executive compensation. It is only through deliberate measures to ensure productivity growth is reflected in improved compensation and conditions for workers that Australian workers can have any confidence their contributions to improved productivity will pay off in better lives. Repairing the link between productivity and mass prosperity, by strengthening the institutions of distribution and pushing wealth downward (rather than hoping it will trickle down automatically), is as important to Australia’s future productivity as any labour-saving technological breakthrough.

    The report concludes with a broad agenda of high-level policy themes that should be pursued to challenge and support Australian workplaces to become more productive – and to ensure the resulting gains are broadly shared.



    Productivity in the Real World




    Factsheet
    Australia does not have a “productivity crisis” – new research

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  • Budget briefing paper 2025-2026

    The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget.

    As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives.  There is very little in this budget that is new other than the surprise tax cuts, which are welcome given they benefit mostly those on low-incomes. There are continuing investments in some key areas supporting wages growth, where it is sorely needed, and rebuilding important areas of public good. However, there remains much that needs to be done in the next parliament.

    This briefing paper reviews some of the main features of the budget, focusing on those aspects targeting and impacting on workers, working lives and labour markets.

    The establishment of a $1 billion Green Iron Investment Fund to provide capital grants to green iron projects is a significant investment. With $500 million of this fund going to the troubled Whyalla steelworks this investment should ensure ongoing integrity in the management of this vital industrial asset. We believe the government should take a significant ongoing stake in the ownership of the Whyalla steelworks. The $2 billion Green Aluminium Production Credit, to incentivise Australian aluminium smelters to switch to renewable electricity before 2036, is a necessary and welcome policy to assist the transition to a low emissions economy. Unfortunately, the credit is not available until 2028-2029.

    New and ongoing support for students in TAFE and in higher education are important cost-of-living measures while also making education and training more inclusive and accessible. There is some new funding for previously announced initiatives that support workers and wages growth and some funding for new wage increases in the female-dominated, and low-paid, aged care and early childhood education and care sectors; demonstrating the government’s commitment to addressing long-standing undervaluation of feminised care occupations. Continuing government support will be needed as the current Fair Work Commission review of awards to address undervaluation progresses.

    Other reforms in ECEC, along with previously announced changes to paid parental leave and carer payments, provide welcome, but belated, support for working parents and carers. It is disappointing to see that the opportunity has been missed to raise Job Seeker and Youth Allowances from their grossly inadequate levels.



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  • Solid Foundations, Bright Future

    Solid Foundations, Bright Future

    An Analysis of New South Wales Economic and Fiscal Advantages
    by Jack Thrower

    New South Wales has one of the most prosperous and productive economies in Australia, with a diverse base of economic activity and strong labour market. However, years of austerity have hollowed out its public sector, creating one of the proportionally smallest state public sectors in the country in terms of both economic activity and employment.

    Despite the instrumental role the public sector played in navigating the state through the pandemic, weak wage growth and rising inflation have compounded the impacts of austerity, leading to significant reductions in public sector real wages. While the current government’s scrapping of the wage cap and implementation of public sector wage rises has undone some of this damage, most notably the October 2023 wage rises for public school teachers, more repair is needed.

    The NSW government has a strong fiscal position with which to manage these challenges. NSW maintains nearly the highest credit rating in the country and relies on revenue bases that are both diverse and stable. Additionally, there is considerable evidence that, if needed, several options are available to increase state government revenue. As the state economy weakens in response to high interest rates and declining real incomes, the state government has the responsibility to contribute to support the economy and broader society, through expansion of public services, repair of public sector wages, and support for the most vulnerable.



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  • The Case for Investing in Public Schools

    The Case for Investing in Public Schools

    The Economic and Social Benefits of Public Schooling in Australia
    by Eliza Littleton, Fiona Macdonald and Jim Stanford

    Education has long been recognised as a vital determinant of both personal life chances and broader economic and social performance.

    Public schools play a critical role in ensuring access to educational opportunity for Australians from all economic and geographical communities.

    Public schools are accessible to everyone. They provide a vital ‘public good’ service in ensuring universal access to the education that is essential for a healthy economy and society.

    However, inadequate funding for public schools – measured by persistent failure to meet minimum resource standards established through the Schooling Resource Standard (SRS) – is preventing students in public schools from fulfilling their potential. Growing evidence (including the latest NAPLAN testing results) attests to declining student completion and achievement in Australia, with major and lasting consequences for students, their families and communities, and the economy.

    In this new report, Centre for Future Work researchers Eliza Littleton, Fiona Macdonald, and Jim Stanford document the large economic and social benefits of stronger funding for public schools. The report measures three broad channels of benefits:

    1. The immediate economic footprint of public schools, including direct and indirect jobs in schools, the education supply chain, and downstream consumer industries.
    2. The labour market and productivity gains resulting from a more educated workforce.
    3. Social and fiscal benefits arising from the fact that school graduates tend to be healthier, require less support from public income programs, and are less likely to be engaged with the criminal justice system.

    Citing international and Australian evidence regarding the scale of these three channels of benefit, the report estimates that funding public schools consistent with the SRS would ultimately generate ongoing economic and fiscal benefits two to four times larger than the incremental cost of additional funding. For governments, the fiscal payback from those benefits (via both enhanced revenues and fiscal savings on health, welfare, and criminal justice expenses) would exceed the upfront investments required in meeting the SRS.

    Please see the full report, The Case for Investing in Public Schools: The Economic and Social Benefits of Public Schooling in Australia, by Eliza Littleton, Fiona Macdonald, and Jim Stanford.



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    Factsheet
    Report Reveals True Potential of Fully Funded Public Schools

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  • The October 2022-23 Commonwealth Budget: A Good Start… But Rocky Times Ahead

    The October 2022-23 Commonwealth Budget: A Good Start… But Rocky Times Ahead

    The new Albanese Labor government has tabled a revised budget for the 2022-23 fiscal year, revising revenue and spending forecasts originally contained in the March budget (from the previous Morrison government), and providing new funding to support several new programs and policies.

    In this review of the budget, our team of Centre for Future Work researchers evaluates the budget’s assumptions and policy measures, from the perspective of workers and labour markets. The budget marks a clear change of emphasis from budgets over the previous decade: including explicit recognition of the need to strengthen wage growth, new funding for vital care sectors, and important investments in diversifying Australia’s industrial base.

    However, the budget also acknowledges the downside risk of a slowing world economy, which could engulf Australia in another recession — just three years after entering the COVID pandemic. Stronger fiscal measures and income supports will be required if the economy does enter a downturn. And deep problems such as falling real wages, entrenched poverty, and gender inequality will require stronger measures than are included in this first budget. Meanwhile, crucial fiscal decisions (including the regressive Stage 3 tax cuts for high-income Australians) have been deferred for a later date.

    In sum, the budget marks a good start on addressing many of Australia’s key economic, social, and environmental challenges. But much more will be needed – and the risking of looming recession will complicate this progress considerably.



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  • War gains: LNG Windfall Profits 2022

    War gains: LNG Windfall Profits 2022

    by Mark Ogge

    Energy prices spiked worldwide following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting restrictions on Russia’s gas exports. This has in turn increased the value of Australian LNG exports and the profits of LNG companies. We estimate the war related windfall gain to LNG companies in 2021-22 at between $26 billion and $40 billion.

    Despite widespread calls by economists and commentators to tax this windfall gain, the Australian Government is yet to do so. At least $20 billion could be raised by a tax on war related profits. This is enough to fund the Australian Government’s entire $20 billion investment in its Rewiring the Nation initiative to modernize Australia’s electricity grid and would leave funds to compensate Australian households and businesses unfairly impacted by spiralling energy costs, largely because of the behaviour of the LNG producers concerned



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  • Budget Analysis 2022-23

    Budget Analysis 2022-23

    A Budget to Get to the May Election – But No Further

    The Commonwealth Government has tabled its budget for the 2022-23 financial year. As the nation emerges from two years of lockdowns and border closures, with less than two months until a federal election, this budget is focused on getting the government re-elected – rather than addressing the challenges of public health, stagnant wages, and sustainability facing Australia.

    This failure is all the more regrettable given the enormous discretionary fiscal resources which the government has at its disposal: the budget projects $133 billion in extra tax revenues over the next five years, compared to its MYEFO projections just three months ago, thanks to strong economic growth and rising nominal GDP. But instead of ploughing those revenues into reforming human services (like health, aged care, early child education, or disability services), undertaking a genuine policy to revitalise domestic manufacturing, or accelerating the energy transition, the government has prioritised one-time cash handouts to entice voters in the upcoming election.

    In this comprehensive budget overview, the Centre for Future Work’s team of economists unpacks the budget, considers its effects, and suggests alternatives.

    Our report reviews all aspects of the budget’s impacts on work and workers, including: wages, employment forecasts, vocational education and higher education, women workers and caring labour, labour standards enforcement, and manufacturing and energy jobs.

    Please also check out these rapid-response budget commentaries from two of our economists:

    Six graphs that reveal the sugar-hit election strategy,” by Policy Director Greg Jericho in the Guardian Australia.

    Budget billions wasted as real wages go backwards,” by Senior Economist Alison Pennington in The New Daily.



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  • Budget Analysis 2021-22: Heroic Assumptions and Half Measures

    Budget Analysis 2021-22: Heroic Assumptions and Half Measures

    The Commonwealth government has tabled its budget for the 2021-22 financial year. The government is counting on a vigorous and sustained burst of consumer spending by Australian households to drive the post-COVID recovery. Yet the budget itself concedes that the main sources of income to finance expanded consumer spending (namely, wages and income supports) will remain weak or even contract. As shown in the Centre for Future Work’s analysis of the budget, these two dimensions of the budget are fundamentally incompatible.

    While an abrupt turn to austerity was avoided in this budget, overall program spending is nevertheless declining substantially: falling $60 billion this year (or around 3% of Australia’s GDP) as COVID support programs are eliminated. And the new investments announced in some programs neither offset the contractionary impact of overall spending cuts, nor come close to meeting the real need for expanded services in any of these areas.

    Our briefing paper on the 2021-22 Commonwealth Budget describes the contradictory macroeconomic logic of the budget, and the risks of an economic recovery that is overwhelmingly dependent on consumer spending – at a time when consumer incomes are constrained by stagnant wages and cutbacks in income programs. It also reviews specific spending announcements in several key areas of relevance to workers and labour markets: including aged care, gender inequality, superannuation, manufacturing, and higher education.

    This budget was an opportunity for the government to recognise that a sustained recovery needs a balanced and inclusive economic and fiscal approach. Full recovery can only be underpinned by a commitment to more secure jobs, higher wages, expanded public services, and a broad portfolio of high-value industries. Sadly, the budget fails to deliver on all these counts. The government has not truly accepted its responsibility to oversee a lasting and inclusive reconstruction after the terrible events of the last year.



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  • Wages, Taxes, and the Budget

    Wages, Taxes, and the Budget

    by Jim Stanford and Troy Henderson

    The Coalition government’s 2018 budget features a plan to cut personal income taxes for many Australians over the next several years. The government claims it wants to reward lower- and middle-income wage-earners with tax savings.  However, the biggest personal tax reductions would not be experienced until 2022 and beyond (after at least two more federal elections).  And the biggest savings go to those with incomes over $200,000 per year (the richest 3 percent of tax-filers).

    Our Briefing Note on the 2018 Budget explores the relationships between wages and taxes, and shows that working to reverse the recent unprecedented wage stagnation is the key to achieving ongoing improvements in living standards – not pre-election tweaks in the tax code.

    Our budget analysis finds that:

    • The boost in disposable incomes for most Australians from these changes will be miniscule, not making any measurable difference to their standard of living.
    • The biggest cause of stagnating living standards in Australia has been the deceleration of wage increases since 2012. The budget assumes that wage growth will suddenly rebound in coming years to more traditional rates (of 3.5 percent per year). This assumption underpins the government’s revenue forecasts – but there is no plan for achieving faster wage growth.
    • To the contrary, the government’s continuing labour policies will suppress future wage increases. This includes its own 2 percent cap on wage increases for federal public sector workers; the government is restraining wage growth for its own employees to barely half of what it hopes for the whole economy.
    • Restoring normal wage patterns would boost disposable incomes for Australian workers many times more than tweaks to personal tax rates and thresholds.

    For example, for a worker earning $60,000 per year (higher than the median income of Australians), the Coalition tax plan will increase disposable income by $530 by the last year of the budget period (2021-22).  In contrast, annual normal wage increases (of 3.5 percent per year) would boost disposable income that same year by almost $6000 – 11 times as much.



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  • The Consequences of Fiscal Austerity in Western Australia

    The Consequences of Fiscal Austerity in Western Australia

    by Cameron Murray and Troy Henderson

    This report critically responds to the call for fiscal austerity and public sector downsizing, being made in response to the emergence of fiscal deficits in Western Australia (WA). Those deficits arose in the wake of the slowdown in mining activity and corresponding deceleration of employment and economic growth. Many observers immediately conclude that the only response to a deficit must be some combination of cutting program spending, reducing public sector employment, freezing or reducing public sector wages, and selling public assets.

    In reality, there should be no alarm about the WA state deficit. To the contrary, that deficit merely confirms that state fiscal policy is in fact doing what it is supposed to: namely, provide essential public services that make a key contribution to quality of life and the health of communities, and provide a solid base for private-sector economic activity (including helping to stabilise private-sector activity through its inevitable ups and downs). Knee-jerk spending cuts or asset sales in response to deficits that are caused by cyclical developments in the private-sector economy would only make matters worse in the short-run – and they would significantly undermine the public sector’s capacity to provide sustainable public services in the long-run.

    This paper explains the important economic functions played by the automatic stabilisers that are built into the tax-and-spending system of the state economy. It discusses the normal and even desirable functions of public debt, and catalogues the ongoing economic and social value of good quality public sector employment. All of these factors provide needed context for debates over the direction of fiscal policy in WA in the wake of the mining downturn and subsequent recession.

    The key findings and recommendations of the report include:

    1. A budget surplus can be a very effective way to slow economic growth, especially during a recession. The assumption that government should achieve a surplus as quickly as possible is fundamentally wrong.
    2. Deficits are acceptable – and positive – during periods of weak economic growth. Attempts to forcibly repair budget deficits during recessions will make the economic situation worse.
    3. Western Australia’s recent budget deficit is the result – not the cause – of deteriorating economic conditions. The budget deficit has helped to stabilise overall economic conditions in WA in an economically efficient manner.
    4. WA’s deficit and debt service charges are not large relative to the productive capacity of the state economy, nor to the overall revenue base of the state government. Indeed, WA’s interest payments are smaller as a share of total state government revenue than is the case for many large corporations and millions of households.
    5. The automatic stabiliser function of the budget should be amplified through additional discretionary counter-cyclical policy measures, such as increased government spending and investment during economic slumps.
    6. Privatisation of state assets is an accounting trick that does not actually improve the deficit (instead, it trades one asset for another on the government’s balance sheet), and will weaken the government’s fiscal position if the privatised asset generated revenue at a higher margin than the government pays interest on its debt.
    7. Public sector employment in WA has stagnated since the onset of the recession in 2013. In fact, Western Australia has the third lowest level of total public sector employment (14.5 percent) as a share of total employment of any state. The assumption that the state’s public sector is bloated is factually wrong. 
    8. Between 2013 and 2017, state public sector employment was essentially stable (at around 110,600 full-time equivalent workers). But during this period, WA’s resident population continued to increase (adding around 100,000 new residents). Therefore, WA’s public sector workforce has not kept up with the population it must serve.
    9. During the 2014 to 2017 recession, labour incomes in the private sector declined, shrinking at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent per year. In contrast, total wages and salaries paid in the public sector continued to grow at a modest but positive rate (of 3.9 percent per year). This continued, normal growth in public sector income helped to moderate the negative economic effects of the recession in the private sector.
    10. Like other forms of government spending, public sector payrolls acted as an automatic stabiliser during the recession – despite deliberate (and ill-advised) government efforts to suppress public expenditure. If public compensation had declined at the same rate as private compensation between 2014 and 2017, consumer spending, state output, and even the state government’s own revenues would have been lower than they were.



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